Should Adley Rutschman play in the majors in 2021?

[jabba72]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he is up by July and gets 250ish at bats, I think Adley OpS’es over 700.  (Again, based on the assumption that he’s as good as they say he is)

 

51 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I wouldn't. At all. Again, he's barely played professional baseball. He has insane gifts, but the MLB is not short season ball or the Pac 12. In 40 games in his rookie season, Mike Trout was outmatched in the big leagues. Would it have been good for his development for him to play 120ish more games that year with a .670 OPS? I doubt it. Now, I fully expect Adley to make his debut towards the end of the year and I'll be pretty peeved if he doesn't. There's a difference between valuable experience and hanging a kid out to dry. 

 I dont think he gets called up before September unless he absolutely dominates AA/AAA.

[Beef Supreme]

On 2/19/2021 at 1:49 PM, Frobby said:

I expect the Orioles to do what is in the team’s long term best interests.    Being fair to the players (hence, keeping them happy and loyal) is a component of that, but not the only one.    

I just don’t see how performance is irrelevant to that.    It’s one thing to park a guy with a .900 OPS in the minors all year, and it’s another thing to keep a .700 OPS guy down all year.   Regardless of age.  
 

I was not speaking about Rutschman specifically. I was responding to your assertion that "it’s another thing to keep a .700 OPS guy down all year.   Regardless of age." As I read your comment, you were talking about players in general.

I have read glowing reports but I don't know whether Adley is a premier defender at this time. But when players are exceptionally skilled defensively at positions that place a premium on strong defense, they are brought up to learn to hit in the majors or not hit well, in certain cases. The catchers I mentioned and players such as Luis Aparicio, Mark Belanger, Brooks and Gary Pettis are examples.

And to LTO's point, I never, ever claimed he would OPS .700 at the major league level -- and nor did you, for that matter, as you were referring to a MiLB OPS of .700. Hell, I wasn't even talking about him in the first place, so for LTO to put those words in my mouth is patently dishonest. And, like I said, I never assumed you were referring to Adley specifically, either.

[LTO's]

53 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

You're talking about 135 plate appearances in Trout's first year.  In his 1st full year, he OPS'd .963, won ROY, was 2nd in MVP voting, won a Silver Slugger,  was 1st in offensive WAR in the AL, 8th in defensive WAR in the AL, I could go on and on.   

Ok, and? I'm aware of what I'm talking about. It really seems like what the Angels did worked in this scenario. He was clearly overmatched in those first 40 games but gained experience he carried into the next season. What benefit would it have provided if he slogged through 162 games with a .281 OBP? Would he have been benched? Would he have been sent back down?  There's a human element to this. If he comes up in August or September and struggles, so what? If he comes up in April and struggles, then we have a huge problem. 

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If he is up by July and gets 250ish at bats, I think Adley OpS’es over 700.  (Again, based on the assumption that he’s as good as they say he is)

Right. Fine. But there's a huge difference between him coming up in July and him making the team out of ST without having played above low A. It's very unfortunate that there was no minor leagues last year as we'd have a way clearer picture of where he's at right now. I appreciate the reports from the alternate site but practically every time he stepped up to the plate it was essentially like he was facing a pitcher who was on his 10th time through the order. Every prospect, regardless if they're blue chip or not, needs some development in the minors before reaching the majors. The Orioles having a bad ML team doesn't change this imo.

[SteveA]

40 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

 

 I dont think he gets called up before September unless he absolutely dominates AA/AAA.

September no longer means nearly as much in terms of callups.

The roster DOES expand -- but only from 26 to 28.

And the minor league season no longer ends on Labor Day like it used to, it goes well into September.

I guess most teams may call up either 2 Ps or a P&C on September 1, so there is certainly a possibility Adley could come up.   But the phenomenon of a "September callup" is nearly extinct.

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

Ok, and? I'm aware of what I'm talking about. It really seems like what the Angels did worked in this scenario. He was clearly overmatched in those first 40 games but gained experience he carried into the next season. What benefit would it have provided if he slogged through 162 games with a .281 OBP? Would he have been benched? Would he have been sent back down?  There's a human element to this. If he comes up in August or September and struggles, so what? If he comes up in April and struggles, then we have a huge problem. 

So what?  Who isn't overmatched in their first 100 or so at bats.  He was kinda able to rebound from that.  Ya don't just give up on Adley if he struggles in April - that would be foolish/absurd/ridiculous.    

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

September no longer means nearly as much in terms of callups.

The roster DOES expand -- but only from 26 to 28.

And the minor league season no longer ends on Labor Day like it used to, it goes well into September.

I guess most teams may call up either 2 Ps or a P&C on September 1, so there is certainly a possibility Adley could come up.   But the phenomenon of a "September callup" is nearly extinct.

OK. Well thats interesting.  I think he could still be a candidate to be one of those callups since its a given he'll be on the team at some point in 2022. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

Right. Fine. But there's a huge difference between him coming up in July and him making the team out of ST without having played above low A. It's very unfortunate that there was no minor leagues last year as we'd have a way clearer picture of where he's at right now. I appreciate the reports from the alternate site but practically every time he stepped up to the plate it was essentially like he was facing a pitcher who was on his 10th time through the order. Every prospect, regardless if they're blue chip or not, needs some development in the minors before reaching the majors. The Orioles having a bad ML team doesn't change this imo.

Well, I don’t know if needs is the right word but yes, he will get some development time down there.  He shouldn’t “need” more than 3 months down there.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, LTO's said:

Ok, and? I'm aware of what I'm talking about. It really seems like what the Angels did worked in this scenario. He was clearly overmatched in those first 40 games but gained experience he carried into the next season. What benefit would it have provided if he slogged through 162 games with a .281 OBP? Would he have been benched? Would he have been sent back down?  There's a human element to this. If he comes up in August or September and struggles, so what? If he comes up in April and struggles, then we have a huge problem. 

How do you know he was overmatched?  Did you watch every game? His BABiP was 247 and he had a solid LD% of over 20%.  His K rate was right in line with his career number, so He wasn’t overmatched in that way. 
 

In a SSS like that, it doesn’t take much for your stats to be skewed.