The 2021 OPS Projections Thread

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Any chance you can add a column with a simple average of all of the projection systems and sort on that?

Took the liberty of borrowing Frobby's data and then sort it on the average from highest to lowest projection. 

Name	PA	AVG	PECOTA	ZiPS	Steamer	ATC	THEBAT	THEBATX	Marcel	Frobby
Mancini	550	0.806	0.793	0.823	0.791	0.801	0.798	0.813	0.806	0.821
Santander	550	0.787	0.769	0.796	0.784	0.804	0.781	0.791	0.769	0.801
Mountcastle	550	0.776	0.741	0.798	0.788	0.782	0.759	0.755	0.802	0.785
Hays	450	0.749	0.755	0.747	0.741	0.731	0.713	0.711	0.771	0.825
Stewart	175	0.744	0.719	0.748	0.764	0.762	0.729	0.735	0.753	0.745
Franco	450	0.744	0.756	0.724	0.782	0.753	0.722	0.725	0.743	0.745
Sisco	200	0.717	0.714	0.725	0.696	0.717	0.711	0.713	0.707	0.749
Urias	300	0.714	0.708	0.761	0.729	0.692	0.675	0.675	0.768	0.701
Diaz	150	0.710	0.698	0.731	0.721	0.716	0.701	0.699	0.711	0.705
Severino	350	0.704	0.704	0.694	0.708	0.701	0.703	0.705	0.699	0.721
Ruiz	225	0.699	0.704	0.704	0.727	0.701	0.685	0.672	0.706	0.695
Valaika	300	0.697	0.706	0.783	0.677	0.681	0.658	0.663	0.686	0.721
Galvis	600	0.691	0.713	0.682	0.672	0.692	0.684	0.677	0.708	0.701
Bannon	125	0.687	0.673	0.681	0.694	0.693	0.692	0.691	0.687	0.681
Rutschman	150	0.680	0.603	0.664	0.674	0.691	0.705	0.705	0.674	0.721
Mullins	300	0.669	0.637	0.686	0.689	0.666	0.651	0.659	0.681	0.681
Jones	100	0.657	0.639	0.597	0.645	0.642	0.646	0.645	0.758	0.681
Others	475	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649
Davis	100	0.596	0.632	0.565	0.603	0.594	0.611	0.608	0.576	0.575
TOTAL	6100	0.724	0.718	0.732	0.726	0.724	0.711	0.713	0.732	0.738

[wildcard]

My hope is that the O's pitch well, hit well  and play good defense, then mid season Rutschman is promoted like Manny was and its 2012 all over again.

[Frobby]

On 3/31/2021 at 9:04 PM, Frobby said:

Updated to (1) add Maikel Franco, (2) substitute Urias for Sanchez, and (3) add in my own projections (which, needless to say, are more optimistic than any of the others!).    If any one else would like to make OPS projections for each of the listed players, I will plug them into the spreadsheet later and let you know what team OPS emerges.

Name 		PA	PECOTA	ZiPS	Steamer	ATC	THEBAT	THEBATX	Marcel	Frobby
Severino	350	0.704	0.694	0.708	0.701	0.703	0.705	0.699	0.721
Sisco		200	0.714	0.725	0.696	0.717	0.711	0.713	0.707	0.749
Rutschman	150	0.603	0.664	0.674	0.691	0.705	0.705	0.674	0.721
Mancini		550	0.793	0.823	0.791	0.801	0.798	0.813	0.806	0.821
Davis		100	0.632	0.565	0.603	0.594	0.611	0.608	0.576	0.575
Urias		300	0.708	0.761	0.729	0.692	0.675	0.675	0.768	0.701
Valaika		300	0.706	0.783	0.677	0.681	0.658	0.663	0.686	0.721
Jones		100	0.639	0.597	0.645	0.642	0.646	0.645	0.758	0.681
Franco		450	0.756	0.724	0.782	0.753	0.722	0.725	0.743	0.745
Ruiz		225	0.704	0.704	0.727	0.701	0.685	0.672	0.706	0.695
Bannon		125	0.673	0.681	0.694	0.693	0.692	0.691	0.687	0.681
Galvis		600	0.713	0.682	0.672	0.692	0.684	0.677	0.708	0.701
Mountcastle	550	0.741	0.798	0.788	0.782	0.759	0.755	0.802	0.785
Hays 		450	0.755	0.747	0.741	0.731	0.713	0.711	0.771	0.825
Mullins 	300	0.637	0.686	0.689	0.666	0.651	0.659	0.681	0.681
Santander 	550	0.769	0.796	0.784	0.804	0.781	0.791	0.769	0.801
Stewart 	175	0.719	0.748	0.764	0.762	0.729	0.735	0.753	0.745
Diaz		150	0.698	0.731	0.721	0.716	0.701	0.699	0.711	0.705
Others		475	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649
TOTAL	   	6100	0.718	0.732	0.726	0.724	0.711	0.713	0.732	0.738

 

Interesting to revisit this at year end.   None of the projections systems had Mullns cracking .700 OPS.  I had assigned 525 PA to players who never saw the field for the Orioles this year (Rutschman, Davis, Bannon, Diaz).   I gave 475 PA to "other," but the actual total was 902 (not surprising since the four mentioned above didn't get called up).   The team's actual .705 OPS was below any of the team projections listed above.   So, a disappointing season for the offense.