The second guessing Hyde thread.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Interesting, I see three runs in an inning and think that's pretty close to four. You're right the odds of losing that game are pretty low, but isn't that because most managers don't use their absolute worst reliever in that situation? And even if we don't lose, all sorts of bad things could happen like having to bring in Bautista or going to extras. I don't know how to search for it but I don't think it is super unusual for a backend non-closer to be used with a 4 run lead.

I think that most times you can have a position player pitch an inning and not give up four runs.

[maybenxtyr]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If the bullpen crumbles you can have every right to complain about it then. The bullpen did great last year. I see no reason to second guess Hyde at every turn although I realize that is the purpose of this thread.

I'm not really complaining here, just pointing out that there's been a few times this season where he's used up his "guaranteed" resources in a situation where he may have been able to save them for the next day. Sometimes it comes back to bite them, sometimes it doesn't. 

 

I'm hoping Givens comes back and can be a fairly reliable option, possibly creating a bit of a rotation in the BP with him, Cano, Baker and Coulombe. 

 

They're going to have to figure something out between Both and Baumann as they're supposed to be a bulk inning option. They haven't really been used as such just yet..

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

That's fine, but that has to be a (somewhat) recent thing.  Growing up I definitely remember guys routinely pitching more than 2 days in a row out of the bullpen.  I'm just curious as to when this became a hard fast rule that it can't happen.

Well, I still don’t think it’s a hard and fast rule, but you see it less often than you used to, and I do think Hyde really tries to avoid it.  I can recall Buck doing it a few times, but maybe only 2-3 times a season.  I can’t comment on how frequent it was in earlier years.   Frankly, bullpens cover more and more innings every year, and there are more relievers on the staff than ever, so the situation is a bit different.  

Just as a sanity check, I looked at the Randy Myers 1997 season where he had 45 saves in 46 chances.  He pitched three days in a row four times that season.  He did not allow a run in any of those third-day appearances.  

At the same time, Myers had less of a workload than Bautista or Cano.  Myers made 62 appearances for 59.2 innings.  Bautista is on pace for 74 appearances and 74 innings.  Cano is on pace for 89 appearances and 103 innings.  You can only go to the well so often, and perhaps the “no third day rule” makes sense when your pitchers are appearing that often.  
 

[SteveA]

22 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Interesting, I see three runs in an inning and think that's pretty close to four. You're right the odds of losing that game are pretty low, but isn't that because most managers don't use their absolute worst reliever in that situation? And even if we don't lose, all sorts of bad things could happen like having to bring in Bautista or going to extras. I don't know how to search for it but I don't think it is super unusual for a backend non-closer to be used with a 4 run lead.

You talk about Irvin as if he is some awful, awful pitcher.   He has a mediocre 4.59 career ERA over 417 innings, and has accumulated 2.5 WAR in his career.   Yes, he had 12 bad innings to start this season and got demoted.   But he is a ML pitcher, and above replacement level.

This isn't some sub-replacement Eric Hanhold / Jimmy Yacabonis / Chandler Shepherd type guy like the ones our bullpen was crammed  full of a few years ago.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm not really complaining here, just pointing out that there's been a few times this season where he's used up his "guaranteed" resources in a situation where he may have been able to save them for the next day. Sometimes it comes back to bite them, sometimes it doesn't. 

 

I'm hoping Givens comes back and can be a fairly reliable option, possibly creating a bit of a rotation in the BP with him, Cano, Baker and Coulombe. 

 

They're going to have to figure something out between Both and Baumann as they're supposed to be a bulk inning option. They haven't really been used as such just yet..

That is fair. I would be interested to look systematically and see if Hyde is really that different from common practice in MLB. Just a few backend guys on good teams:

Cano has 17 G, 5 GF, 3 SV, 21.2 IP

Jorge Lopez 20 G, 6 GF, 3 SV, 19.2 IP

Graterol 19 G, 6 GF, 2 SV, 17.1 IP

Swanson 21 G, 4 GF, 0 SV, 21.1 IP

Payamps 19 G, 4 GF, 0 SV, 21.0 IP

Cano's usage is on the high side, but other teams definitely use their backend guys to finish games even if it's not a save situation.

[banks703]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Guess you have to ask, why pitch Cano in a 4 run game earlier in the week?

This is my line of thinking as well and I've expressed my discontent on assigning "traditional roles" to guys in the pen for this very reason. Right now, I believe that they should pitch these guys (in this order) with respect leverage, highest to lowest, match-up permitting:

 

Cano

Bautista

Baker

Baumann

Coulombe

Perez

Akin

Voth

 

Since he was brought up, Cano has been the best reliever in baseball by a pretty wide margin. There's absolutely zero reason to throw him in a game with a four-run lead. It definitely cost them the ability to use him last night and quite possibly cost them the game. 

 

Splitting the Angels series at home is not the end of the world but taking 3 of 4 going into Toronto this weekend would have given the O's a four game cushion on the Jays for 2nd place. It also would have closed the gap with the Rays to 2.5 games. They can't afford to ANY letdowns with this division. 

 

They're in the thick of this brutal 25 game stretch through the end of May.

3 @ ATL (1-2)

3 vs Tam (2-1)

3 vs Pit (2-1)

4 vs LAA (2-2)

3 @ Tor

3 @ NYY

3 vs Tex

3 vs Cle

 

They are 7-6 through the first 13 games of said stretch, which to me is a win as I thought going into May, if they went anywhere between 10-15 and 15-10 for these games that it was a clear sign that they are legitimate playoff contenders. I expect them to be sitting at 9-10 for this spread of games after visiting Toronto and NYY, though I think they're just as likely to get two games in NYY as they are to drop two. I think they'll end the Cleveland series (and the month of May) by  going 12-13 against the teams above, which are all either current playoff contending teams or they were considered a playoff contender coming into the year. 12-13 in these games is a success to me but 13-12 would obviously have been better.  

[RZNJ]

I think it’s foolhardy to worry about how many games we’re behind one team or ahead of another team at this point.  I understand about the idea of using lesser relievers with a 4 run lead.  I also know that Voth came in with a 4-run lead the other night.  The first 3 reached base.  How many of you wanted to leave Voth in?   Felix still had to warm up “just in case”.    I’m ok with the “take no chances” approach.   
 

The same logic that says we should be able to bring a lower level reliever in with a 4-run lead tells me we should be able to get from the 6th to the 8th without giving up 3 runs.

Cano looked human his last game against the Pirates.  Something wasn’t right. Two days off and he’s back to lights out against LA.   If we’re not careful you’ll wind up with 2 weeks or 2 months of not right.  
 

We need to keep Baker and Baumann at full strength too.  Both have shown glimpses of being very good.    The key is getting more from Perez and Voth.  Perez seems to be coming around.  Voth seemed to be but he’s been very disappointing his last 2 or 3.

Sometimes you lose a battle in order to win the war.   

[banks703]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I think it’s foolhardy to worry about how many games we’re behind one team or ahead of another team at this point.  

That "take no chances" approach that you're comfortable with is contradictory to your above statement. If you aren't concerned about games in May then why bring in your best reliever in a low leverage situation? You can't have your cake and eat it too. 

 

Every game counts. When it's September 30th and the O's are a game out of a playoff spot, I'm sure you will care then about the games in April and May that were squandered due to mismanagement of the pen. 

 

I think that Brandon Hyde does a good job overall with the roster/players and I'm only critical of things that are in my opinion egregious. Pitching your best guy out of the pen in a game with a four run lead was egregious to me, especially since it most certainly lead to said best guy not being available in a one run game that was lost by an uncharacteristically ineffective pen. Baker has been lights out but you could tell four pitches into the game that he didn't have it. That would have been the time to go to Cano.

 

Again, I just don't like assigning roles to guys in the pen. Pitch the best guys in the highest leverage situations (provided that the matchup makes sense of course). If Cano gives you two innings there and the O's hold the lead they go into Toronto 14 games above .500, which would have meant that for the remaining 118 games of the season, they would only have to play .500 baseball to finish with 88 wins.  Steal two games out of that remaining 118 and they're looking at a 90 win season. 

 

Every game counts, even the one on May 18th. The odd decisions, like throwing your best reliever in a four run game, make me a little nervous about the overall decision making process. 

 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, banks703 said:

That "take no chances" approach that you're comfortable with is contradictory to your above statement. If you aren't concerned about games in May then why bring in your best reliever in a low leverage situation? You can't have your cake and eat it too. 

 

Every game counts. When it's September 30th and the O's are a game out of a playoff spot, I'm sure you will care then about the games in April and May that were squandered due to mismanagement of the pen. 

 

I think that Brandon Hyde does a good job overall with the roster/players and I'm only critical of things that are in my opinion egregious. Pitching your best guy out of the pen in a game with a four run lead was egregious to me, especially since it most certainly lead to said best guy not being available in a one run game that was lost by an uncharacteristically ineffective pen. Baker has been lights out but you could tell four pitches into the game that he didn't have it. That would have been the time to go to Cano.

 

Again, I just don't like assigning roles to guys in the pen. Pitch the best guys in the highest leverage situations (provided that the matchup makes sense of course). If Cano gives you two innings there and the O's hold the lead they go into Toronto 14 games above .500, which would have meant that for the remaining 118 games of the season, they would only have to play .500 baseball to finish with 88 wins.  Steal two games out of that remaining 118 and they're looking at a 90 win season. 

 

Every game counts, even the one on May 18th. The odd decisions, like throwing your best reliever in a four run game, make me a little nervous about the overall decision making process. 

 

It’s not mismanagement of the pen if you concentrate on winning the game that night but at the same time keep your bullpen rested for the long haul.   That puts the importance on winning games now and winning games in September.   I’m okay using Cano with a 4 run lead to be 99.9% sure of a win when I’m not sure I’ll need him the next day.

Who said I didn’t want to win games in May or that they are less important than ones in August and September?  Not me.

Edited May 19, 2023 by RZNJ

[RZNJ]

Hyde going for matchups gets out maneuvered again.  Last series against the Angels their #9 comes up and he brings in Perez and Nevin gets a superior matchup with a RH hitter.  Today, Baumann had elite stuff and is about to face Belt.  Again, he goes for the matchup with Irvin and they counter with Kirk.  Much rather stick with the pitcher in the game with some feel than one coming in cold.

[Uli2001]

I say it's time to give credit where credit is due. The team is playing hard, picking each other up, and winning. That's job #1 for any manager.

[Billy F-Face3]

49 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

I say it's time to give credit where credit is due. The team is playing hard, picking each other up, and winning. That's job #1 for any manager.

And they're having fun in the process. Brandon Hyde has built an excellent clubhouse culture.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Uli2001 said:

I say it's time to give credit where credit is due. The team is playing hard, picking each other up, and winning. That's job #1 for any manager.

No doubt. I have to agree with that.

[Baltimorecuse]

3 hours ago, Uli2001 said:

I say it's time to give credit where credit is due. The team is playing hard, picking each other up, and winning. That's job #1 for any manager.

Nailed it.  I'm not second guessing the second most wins in baseball.  

[bpilktree]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Hyde going for matchups gets out maneuvered again.  Last series against the Angels their #9 comes up and he brings in Perez and Nevin gets a superior matchup with a RH hitter.  Today, Baumann had elite stuff and is about to face Belt.  Again, he goes for the matchup with Irvin and they counter with Kirk.  Much rather stick with the pitcher in the game with some feel than one coming in cold.

Baumann allowed 3 of the 5 batters he faced to get on base today.  I am not sure that counts as elite when 60% of the guys you get to face reach base.  Baumann got himself in that mess.