Ryan Mountcastle no longer a prospect

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Fair. What are the samples on those numbers (career? Indiv seasons?) 

Career.  

[Ohfan67]

On 4/23/2021 at 2:26 PM, OrioleDog said:

This adjustment period is why I think next month Elias will have to show some of his cards how he assesses the 2022 team.   I get hiding the pitchers; game theory wise I can accept the idea Rafael Devers never gets to see some of our very best young pitchers in real life until next year (April, please).    

Hitting its just the other way around.

Player wise on the whole, I feel like Mountcastle's range of outcomes is actually low variance.   He was a bat first prep and he has hit for years and years and years.    Sure, MLB pitchers are handing him his hat, but that's what 2021 is for.   

I think our Adley over/under is circa August 1, but haven't given up on the possibility that a few hot weeks has him here Memorial Day.   That is the A1 Leading Indicator to me if Elias believes next year's team can compete for one of the (5/6/7/8 ??) tournament slots.   

Sorry for all the questions, but I couldn’t help myself. You think next years team is going to compete for a playoff spot? You think Elias might think this? Were you drinking when you made this post?

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

Sorry for all the questions, but I couldn’t help myself. You think next years team is going to compete for a playoff spot? You think Elias might think this? Were you drinking when you made this post?

I think there's a path to a ~$70M payroll supporting a Top 8 American League team next year.   It needs the best 4 Orioles now in MLB and the minors to team up, but until we see if the Minors guys can play who can say.    These are some dog days of April, but all the AAAA dudes in heavy use now...it just is what it is.     Means and six 1st round picks is a sure loser?    What's a playoff spot next year?    We can't be as good as the 2020 Marlins?

[foxfield]

 

[GuidoSarducci]

On 4/23/2021 at 10:31 AM, wildcard said:

I agree if the O's have someone to replace him.

[Moose Milligan]

Connolly in The Athletic today (where's @TonySoprano been?) penned a column about the possibility of sending Mountcastle down if he struggles through next week and the minor league season opens up.

Might not be the worst idea ever.  He did remind us that Markakis was scuffling through May in his rookie year with a .599 OPS and then took off and finished at .799.  

I'm not sure what to make of his slow start.  I feel like he's hit some loud outs lately and it's in the nature of the game for those to turn into hits after awhile.  His walk ratio, which I think surprised everyone last year, is down to 4.7% from 7.9%. 

To say that he's struggling right now would be putting it mildly.  If they sent him down I wouldn't be too upset about it although I think he should probably stay up in Baltimore and try to iron out whatever issues he's having here. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Connolly in The Athletic today (where's @TonySoprano been?) penned a column about the possibility of sending Mountcastle down if he struggles through next week and the minor league season opens up.

Might not be the worst idea ever.  He did remind us that Markakis was scuffling through May in his rookie year with a .599 OPS and then took off and finished at .799.  

I'm not sure what to make of his slow start.  I feel like he's hit some loud outs lately and it's in the nature of the game for those to turn into hits after awhile.  His walk ratio, which I think surprised everyone last year, is down to 4.7% from 7.9%. 

To say that he's struggling right now would be putting it mildly.  If they sent him down I wouldn't be too upset about it although I think he should probably stay up in Baltimore and try to iron out whatever issues he's having here. 

You could make a good argument for sending him down next week, but I’d give him a little more time.   Last 10 games he’s had some bad luck, posting a .120 BABIP despite hitting the ball pretty hard at times.    He’s still striking out too much but he’s brought his K rate down some (25% over those 10 games, which is down from 37% in the first 12 games).    

Personally, I’d give him another 3 weeks or so to see if things turn around.
 

[Sports Guy]

I can’t come up with any kind of a sound argument that says to send Mountcastle down.  If he is so mentally weak that he can’t handle an early slump, he is going to be nothing anyway.

[DrungoHazewood]

18 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Connolly in The Athletic today (where's @TonySoprano been?) penned a column about the possibility of sending Mountcastle down if he struggles through next week and the minor league season opens up.

Might not be the worst idea ever.  He did remind us that Markakis was scuffling through May in his rookie year with a .599 OPS and then took off and finished at .799.  

I'm not sure what to make of his slow start.  I feel like he's hit some loud outs lately and it's in the nature of the game for those to turn into hits after awhile.  His walk ratio, which I think surprised everyone last year, is down to 4.7% from 7.9%. 

To say that he's struggling right now would be putting it mildly.  If they sent him down I wouldn't be too upset about it although I think he should probably stay up in Baltimore and try to iron out whatever issues he's having here. 

May not be the worst idea ever. It's not as bad as trying to convert Chance Sisco to pitcher.  Or to see if DJ Stewart really can play short.  But it's a pretty terrible idea to take one of your better hitting prospects and demote him from a 65-win team on the basis of a three-week slump.  I'm sure Markakis learned from his experience.  Cal was hitting under .200 well into May of '82 on a contender.  Steve Finley OPS'd .616 his rookie year, and was only sent down to rehab his separated shoulder. 

I'd give him until at least Memorial Day.

[Tony-OH]

24 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Connolly in The Athletic today (where's @TonySoprano been?) penned a column about the possibility of sending Mountcastle down if he struggles through next week and the minor league season opens up.

Might not be the worst idea ever.  He did remind us that Markakis was scuffling through May in his rookie year with a .599 OPS and then took off and finished at .799.  

I'm not sure what to make of his slow start.  I feel like he's hit some loud outs lately and it's in the nature of the game for those to turn into hits after awhile.  His walk ratio, which I think surprised everyone last year, is down to 4.7% from 7.9%. 

To say that he's struggling right now would be putting it mildly.  If they sent him down I wouldn't be too upset about it although I think he should probably stay up in Baltimore and try to iron out whatever issues he's having here. 

I suggested the same thing in other threads. Sometimes a player just needs to relax a little and right now Mountcastle is pressing due to his awful start. Coming off the year he had last year, there were big expectations and unfortunately he's just gone into a long funk. While he has been a little unlucky has his expected stats show, he's swinging though some hittable pitches which is what he didn't do last year very often.

I have a lot of confidence that this is nothing more than a bad streak that is highlighted by being the start of the season, but, if he's OPSing sub .500 still when the AAA season starts, it might make some sense to go back and take a little pressure off and see if he can refind himself there and then bring him back.

He's hit the ball hard a few times this series so hopefully it's starting to come back. 

[Sports Guy]

I also think people have to understand that Mountcastle has a relatively limited ceiling.  The best thing we could do, imo, is see him get hot and hit reasonably well and use him as a trade chip for a player like Marquez.

[maybenxtyr]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I also think people have to understand that Mountcastle has a relatively limited ceiling.  The best thing we could do, imo, is see him get hot and hit reasonably well and use him as a trade chip for a player like Marquez.

I think a Trumbo-like career would be a best case scenario. There's nothing wrong with that by the way. 

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I can’t come out with any kind of a sound argument that says to send Mountcastle down.  If he is so mentally weak that he can’t handle an early slump, he is going to be nothing anyway.

Well, it doesn't make a player mentally weak if they need an opportunity to just relax a bit. Hyde has tried to take some of the pressure off him by dropping him in the order. That's a good first step.

He's has hit some balls hard of late, but he's slashing .091/.139/.121/.260 in his last 10 games over 36 PAs and his approach at the plate has been pretty bad all year. All the things we saw him do last year he's regressed on. He seems like he's trying to force elevating the ball instead of going back to what made him successful last year. His launch angle is too high this year as he appears to be trying to make up for his lack of power this year by trying to hit those home runs. 

As most players will tell you, when you go back to just trying to hit the ball hard where it's at, that's when the homers start to come. 

He can't hack his way out of this slump so he needs to improve on his 4th percentile chase rate and 7th percentile WHIFF rate. Those stats alone tells me he;s pressing and if he can't figure that out at the major league level, then you send him down to work on those very things.

I remember when Elias went down to AAA and told Mountcastle he needed to be more patient and he started to walk more often right away. I don't know what he's being told right now by the Orioles hitting coach, but he's regressed back to the hackomatic hitter he was in the minors and he needs to get back to the guy he was last year with a better walk rate, better chase rate and better Whiff rate. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, it doesn't make a player mentally weak if they need an opportunity to just relax a bit. Hyde has tried to take some of the pressure off him by dropping him in the order. That's a good first step.

He's has hit some balls hard of late, but he's slashing .091/.139/.121/.260 in his last 10 games over 36 PAs and his approach at the plate has been pretty bad all year. All the things we saw him do last year he's regressed on. He seems like he's trying to force elevating the ball instead of going back to what made him successful last year. His launch angle is too high this year as he appears to be trying to make up for his lack of power this year by trying to hit those home runs. 

As most players will tell you, when you go back to just trying to hit the ball hard where it's at, that's when the homers start to come. 

He can't hack his way out of this slump so he needs to improve on his 4th percentile chase rate and 7th percentile WHIFF rate. Those stats alone tells me he;s pressing and if he can't figure that out at the major league level, then you send him down to work on those very things.

I remember when Elias went down to AAA and told Mountcastle he needed to be more patient and he started to walk more often right away. I don't know what he's being told right now by the Orioles hitting coach, but he's regressed back to the hackomatic hitter he was in the minors and he needs to get back to the guy he was last year with a better walk rate, better chase rate and better Whiff rate. 

I think the idea of needing to go down to relax is bogus.  I know it’s a cliche and things like that but I don’t think he needs that at all.

People talk about his walk rate down../it’s where we should all expect it to be based on his MiL stats.  People got all excited by his very SSS last year and thought he was turning some kind of a corner.  That’s not happening right now and maybe never.

He is in a terrible slump but there are a lot of hitters that look like garbage right now.  
 

If he is as good a hitter as we all think and hope he is, he will be fine.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I think a Trumbo-like career would be a best case scenario. There's nothing wrong with that by the way. 

No..I expect him to be a 780-850 OPS DH/first baseman throughout the best years of his career.  Those numbers, especially the first 4 years of your service time when you are cheap are great and have a ton of value.