How far are the O's away from being a winning team?

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

You can't hold up the Davis contract as an example of the Orioles willing to spend during the rebuild.

What I meant was the Astros were already doing things like signing Altuve to an extension.

Ok, who is the Altuve you think the Orioles should invest in?

[NCRaven]

And what international financial disaster were the Astros dealing with at the time?  Context matters.  Unless it interferes with the narrative.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Ok, who is the Altuve you think the Orioles should invest in?

Means.

Heck I'm super in favor of long term deals with young players.

I'd sign Gunnar to a 10 year deal and go old school and bring him up to learn in the majors.

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Ok, who is the Altuve you think the Orioles should invest in?

Adley.  Means if you don’t want to trade him.  

[wildcard]

Means 4/50.   Mancini 2/25.

[maybenxtyr]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Means 4/50.   Mancini 2/25.

I enjoy Mancini as a player, and the adversity he has overcome is awesome...but I don't think signing him to an extension is a good use of payroll. Mountcastle can play 1B and leave DH open for a rotation of guys.

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Ok, who is the Altuve you think the Orioles should invest in?

The original Altuve extension was an Acuna/Albies level bonanza for the team, but it took some foresight on the part of the team.  To that point, Altuve had 2.072 years of service and had been worth a total of 3.1 rWAR, including 1.1 in 2013.   He signed for 4/$12.5 mm, and two team options at $6 mm/$6.5 mm.   For that $25 mm (only half of which was guaranteed when the deal was signed), the Astros got 34 rWAR.   Even considering that they could have paid close to the minimum in year 1 and then Arb prices in years 2-4, that deal gave the Astros something like $145 mm in excess value.

[SteveA]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Is this just a shtick, or do you honestly think that the O’s don’t plan on adding payroll when they think their young players provide a foundation to compete?

Certainly we saw in 2012-17 that the O’s ramped up their spending to try to win.    That’s certainly what Houston did once they felt the team was ready.    So what makes you think this is likely to be different?   Or is that even what you think?

If your answer is, the sons are cheaper than the father, we’ll see about that.  Maybe they will be a little cheaper due to economic factors that have affected the team, MASN and the law firm.   But in general, I expect them to ramp up when the timing looks right in Elias’ professional judgment.   

We all HOPE that is true.

But given the decline in attendance pre-Covid, then the effects of Covid, and the fact that Peter Angelos is likely very close to passing away and they could be hit by significant inheritance taxes, it could be that the sons are in fact "cheap", and won't spend even when the time comes.   Yes, they have invested in some things that Elias probably told them were the absolute minimum things they had to do, but it is very possible that.   And MAYBE  Elias has also convinced them that at some point the payroll will have to go up significantly.  But I don't know that for sure, and it scares me.   I am not one of the folks that is convinced they will never spend, but it certainly is a nagging fear in the back of my mind.   When I see things like Tony describes a few posts back where they are clearly going second rate to save a small amount of $, it certainly doesn't soothe that fear.

I think the chances that we will do what San Diego did with Manny, with one of the premiere shortstops that might be on the market this offseason, is slim to none.   If Elias tries to sell a move like that to the sons, they may rightfully ask:  why should I tie the shortstop position down for the next 8 -10 yeas when you just drafted a boatload of SS's in the 2019 draft?   Yes, I know many drafted SS's end up at other positions.   I understand all that.   But I think anyone who thinks Carlos Correa or Trevor Story will be in Sarasota next February are going to be in for a big disappointment.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I enjoy Mancini as a player, and the adversity he has overcome is awesome...but I don't think signing him to an extension is a good use of payroll. Mountcastle can play 1B and leave DH open for a rotation of guys.

A lot depends on what your view of when the team flips the switch and will try to win.  DL Hall, Rodriguez and Adley could all be in the majors in 2022.    Mountcastle and Mancini are middle of the lineup hitters.   If the O's want their best chance to win in 2022 they should extend Mancini for 2 years IMO.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

I think the chances that we will do what San Diego did with Manny, with one of the premiere shortstops that might be on the market this offseason, is slim to none.   If Elias tries to sell a move like that to the sons, they may rightfully ask:  why should I tie the shortstop position down for the next 8 -10 yeas when you just drafted a boatload of SS's in the 2019 draft?   Yes, I know many drafted SS's end up at other positions.   I understand all that.   But I think anyone who thinks Carlos Correa or Trevor Story will be in Sarasota next February are going to be in for a big disappointment.

Even though the Padres signed Manny a year before they were really ready to compete, they had a spectacular farm system with a bunch of high ceiling guys very close to the majors.   Our farm system is much improved but not at that level, so I tend to doubt the O’s will make that type of investment this offseason.    But, maybe things will look different at year end.   

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Even though the Padres signed Manny a year before they were really ready to compete, they had a spectacular farm system with a bunch of high ceiling guys very close to the majors.   Our farm system is much improved but not at that level, so I tend to doubt the O’s will make that type of investment this offseason.    But, maybe things will look different at year end.   

I don't see the O's spending 300m on a player in my life time.

[maybenxtyr]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't see the O's spending 300m on a player in my life time.

Nope...and quite honestly I hope they don't. Those contracts rarely ever make any sense.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't see the O's spending 300m on a player in my life time.

I guess I plan on living longer than you do.   I don’t intend to die until some guy signs for $1 billion.    $300 mm will be what they pay Aubrey Huff III by then.  

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess I plan on living longer than you do.   I don’t intend to die until some guy signs for $1 billion.    $300 mm will be what they pay Aubrey Huff III by then.  

You are much younger, smarter but rarely relevant according to your wife.

[Aristotelian]

Mancini seems like a great guy and can hit a bit but I have no interest in extending him. At the end of the day he is a RH 1B/DH and not even a great one at that. I'm fine rolling with DJ and whoever we have backing up OF/1B. Save the money for the premium positions.