Adley Rutschman 2021

[LTO's]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Outside of hitter friendly Bowie Stadium he's slashed .237/.323/.417/.740 in away parks. 

Is Bowie that hitter friendly? I don’t remember that being the case in recent years and even so most hitters seem to hit better at home. I don’t really recall many of his homers looking like they wouldn’t get out of just about any ballpark. There are definitely things to improve upon but I don’t think I’m being a “homer” when it’s non-biased publications that are labeling him baseballs best prospect. 

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, interloper said:

 

Also, a growing concern for me is that he simply doesn't hit when he's catching. His huge game yesterday was another start at 1B. He's gonna have to start hitting at the position he's supposed to play...

So I went and put together a quick spread sheet and came up with these numbers when he's catching:

(36-152) .237 avg, .344 OBP (24 BB + 2 HBP), 8 doubles and 8 home runs, 24 BBs and 34K in 180 PAs. So I'd say he definitely has taken a hit to his bat while catching.

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So I went and put together a quick spread sheet and came up with these numbers when he's catching:

(36-152) .237 avg, .344 OBP (24 BB + 2 HBP), 8 doubles and 8 home runs, 24 BBs and 34K in 180 PAs. So I'd say he definitely has taken a hit to his bat while catching.

Well at least the home runs are there. 8 of his 14. The BBs to Ks is one to watch maybe. 

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Is Bowie that hitter friendly? I don’t remember that being the case in recent years and even so most hitters seem to hit better at home. I don’t really recall many of his homers looking like they wouldn’t get out of just about any ballpark. There are definitely things to improve upon but I don’t think I’m being a “homer” when it’s non-biased publications that are labeling him baseballs best prospect. 

I just grabbed a random year and pulled their top 50 prospects. In case you were wondering, Mike Trout was in the minors and did not make a list. in other words, those lists are nice, but they are not the be all end all. 

But again. I don't see anyone here thinking Rutschman is not going to be a vey good major league player. Just some see some things to be weary of if you are expecting Teixiera power numbers, Mauer average and Pudge defensive skills.

2010
MLB.com
1. Jason Heyward, OF, ATL
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WAS
3. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA
4. Buster Posey, C, SF
5. Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL
6. Desmond Jennings, OF, TB
7. Neftalí Feliz, RHP, TEX
8. Pedro Álvarez, 3B, PIT
9. Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX
10. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SF
11. Carlos Santana, C, CLE
12. Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL
13. Wade Davis, RHP, TB
14. Domonic Brown, OF, PHI
15. Dustin Ackley, 2B, SEA
16. Brett Wallace, 1B, TOR
17. Kyle Drabek, RHP, TOR
18. Martin Pérez, LHP, TEX
19. Jesus Montero, C, NYY
20. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TB
21. Jarrod Parker, RHP, ARI
22. Starlin Castro, SS, CHC
23. Christian Friedrich, LHP, COL
24. Tim Beckham, SS, TB
25. Logan Morrison, 2B, MIA
26. Brett Lawrie, 3B, MIL
27. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, BOS
28. Casey Kelly, RHP, BOS
29. Aaron Hicks, OF, MIN
30. Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN
31. Jason Castro, C, HOU
32. Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
33. Wil Myers, C, KC
34. Julio Teheran, RHP, ATL
35. Michael Taylor, OF, OAK
36. Dee Gordon, SS, LAD
37. Chris Carter, 1B, OAK
38. Austin Jackson, OF, DET
39. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, TEX
40. Drew Storen, RHP, WAS
41. Aaron Crow, RHP, KC
42. Jacob Turner, RHP, DET
43. Mike Montgomery, LHP, KC
44. Jhoulys Chacín, RHP, COL
45. José Iglesias, SS, BOS
46. Michael Brantley, OF, CLE
47. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, PHI
48. Juan Francisco, 3B, CIN
49. Ethan Martin, RHP, LAD
50. Jaff Decker, OF, SD

Fangraph

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
3. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
4. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
6. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers
7. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians
8. Jesus Montero, C/1B, New York Yankees
9. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

11. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Colorado Rockies
12. Dustin Ackley, 2B/OF, Seattle Mariners
13. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
14. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
15. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
16. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers
17. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
18. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
19. Chris Carter, 1B, Oakland Athletics
20. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers

21. Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins
22. Casey Kelly, RHP, Boston Red Sox
23. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins
24. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Chicago Cubs
25. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
26. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado Rockies
27. Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
28. Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
29. Michael Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals
30. Devaris Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

31. Derek Norris, C, Washington Nationals
32. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Toronto Blue Jays
33. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
34. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
35. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Boston Red Sox
36. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
37. Julio Teheran, RHP, Altanta Braves
38. Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
39. Tyler Flowers, C, Chicago White Sox
40. Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels

Baseball Prospectus

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
2. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
4. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
5. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
7. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
8. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
9. Buster Posey, C, Giants
10. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
11. Chris Carter, 1B,  Athletics
12. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B, Mariners
13. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays
14. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Red Sox
15. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
16. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays
17. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
18. Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles
19. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
20. Michael Taylor, OF, Athletics
21. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants
22. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Rockies
23. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies
24. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies
25. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers
26. Aaron Hicks, of, Twins
27. Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers
28. Derek Norris, C, Nationals
29. Donovan Tate, OF, Padres
30. Casey Kelly, RHP, Red Sox
31. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs
32. Casey Crosby, LHP, Tigers
33. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
34. Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
35. Miguel Sano, SS, Twins
36. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals
37. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
38. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
39. Josh Bell, 3B, Orioles
40. Chris Withrow, RHP, Dodgers
41. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
42. Alex Colome, LHP, Rays
43. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians
44. Brett Wallace, 1B, Blue Jays
45. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves
46. Ben Revere, OF, Twins
47. Simon Castro, RHP, Padres
48. Jennry Mejia, RHP, Mets
49. Austin Jackson, of, Tigers
50. Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Is Bowie that hitter friendly? I don’t remember that being the case in recent years and even so most hitters seem to hit better at home. I don’t really recall many of his homers looking like they wouldn’t get out of just about any ballpark. There are definitely things to improve upon but I don’t think I’m being a “homer” when it’s non-biased publications that are labeling him baseballs best prospect. 

It's always been a little high for homeruns allowed (65th percentile in all of minor league baseball in 2019).

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is still too early to read a lot into that.

We will see going forward.

I agree with you.   It’s something to keep an eye on.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I agree with you.   It’s something to keep an eye on.   

If it does continue going forward it will put the O's in an interesting position.  I wonder how they would handle it?

[Moose Milligan]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d take some issue with this.   Walks are not as productive as hits.  So yes you’d like a high OBP, but you don’t want the OBP to be driven by walks to an extreme degree.   

I’m going to stop now, because it’s not like I’m drastically disappointed with Rutschman.   I just thought he’d hit for average a bit more, that’s all.   

I'll take a swing here, Froberto Duran.

On the surface, yes, walks aren't productive as hits.  There's the chance for extra bases, putting pressure on the defense, etc.  

But I know with a walk that the pitcher has thrown at least 4 pitches.  If it's a goal of an offense to get to a bullpen, I want to drive that starters pitch count as high as I can and walks can play a big part of that.  

In regards to not wanting the OBP to be drive by walks to an extreme degree, I think Barry Bonds would beg to differ.  I'm seeing seasons with a .341 batting average and a .529 OBP.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

It's always been a little high for homeruns allowed (65th percentile in all of minor league baseball in 2019).

I gotta say, the homers I’ve seen from Rutschman would have been out of any ballpark.   The ones last night were 414 and 405, respectively, and both in the power alleys and probably cleared the fence by 40 feet.   I’m not sure I’ve seen all his homers, but I’ve seen at least 10, I’d say and I don’t remember one that was even remotely cheap.   On the other hand, I did attend a game where he was robbed of a grand slam by a great leaping catch at the wall in the alley.   If that ball hadn’t been caught, it might have been an example of a ball that would have stayed in the ballpark at bigger venues.   

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'll take a swing here, Froberto Duran.

On the surface, yes, walks aren't productive as hits.  There's the chance for extra bases, putting pressure on the defense, etc.  

But I know with a walk that the pitcher has thrown at least 4 pitches.  If it's a goal of an offense to get to a bullpen, I want to drive that starters pitch count as high as I can and walks can play a big part of that.  

In regards to not wanting the OBP to be drive by walks to an extreme degree, I think Barry Bonds would beg to differ.  I'm seeing seasons with a .341 batting average and a .529 OBP.  

Good point on the pitch count, Moosinex.    As to Bonds, if Ashley hits 341 with a .529 OBP I promise I will not complain.  

On a related point, fellow catcher Yasmani Grandal is currently hitting .188/.388/.436.    In a way, it’s a pretty good line for a mere mortal, but I don’t think I’d want that out of Rutschman.   
 

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If it does continue going forward it will put the O's in an interesting position.  I wonder how they would handle it?

It would have to be pretty severe to move him off catcher right? I think this issue could improve the more he plays and gets acclimated to the pro ball grind of daily games. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

It would have to be pretty severe to move him off catcher right? I think this issue could improve the more he plays and gets acclimated to the pro ball grind of daily games. 

I wasn't thinking move him off entirely as adjust the ratio of games played at each position.  As a mental exercise it would be interesting to see what would maximize value.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

It would have to be pretty severe to move him off catcher right? I think this issue could improve the more he plays and gets acclimated to the pro ball grind of daily games. 

They haven’t exactly been grinding him.  He’s started 40 games at C out of 66 team games spread over 11.3 weeks.   Looking at his game logs, he has never caught three days in a row.   They actually have increased his C workload this month, which (and with the hotter weather) might explain why his offense has lagged lately.  

May: 14 games at C out of 22 (64%)

June: 15 out of 26 (58%)

July: 11 of 16 (69%)(excludes the two games he missed while traveling to the Futures Game).

 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

They haven’t exactly been grinding him.  He’s started 40 games at C out of 66 team games spread over 11.3 weeks.   Looking at his game logs, he has never caught three days in a row.   They actually have increased his C workload this month, which (and with the hotter weather) might explain why his offense has lagged lately.  

May: 14 games at C out of 22 (64%)

June: 15 out of 26 (58%)

July: 11 of 16 (69%)(excludes the two games he missed while traveling to the Futures Game).

 

Interesting, thanks. Man it's weird. For once Keith Law is bullish on an Orioles prospect and meanwhile it seems like we keep finding things to worry about. I just wish the kid would set fire to the league so we didn't have to wring our hands about everything.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, interloper said:

Interesting, thanks. Man it's weird. For once Keith Law is bullish on an Orioles prospect and meanwhile it seems like we keep finding things to worry about. I just wish the kid would set fire to the league so we didn't have to wring our hands about everything.

Last night was a good start.   Just do that every day for two weeks and I’ll stop worrying.