Adley Rutschman 2021

[MurphDogg]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mike Piazza in 2000 and 2001

What about him?

[LTO's]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hard to say.  Mauer's career numbers are much better at catcher but he was younger and healthier at the time.

My guess is that the sample size of any individual season is going to be too small to gather much useful data.

That’s interesting. There probably is a lot of noise in the stats right now. His home/road splits are drastically different for example and it’s not like Bowie is Coors Field. Either way, a .904 OPS in mid July is still elite and nothing I’ve seen this year has really diminished my view of him as a prospect. 

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

What about him?

He was 3rd in MVP votes in 2000.  Also received MVP votes in 2001.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Would you agree that it’s generally tougher for catchers to post gaudy offensive numbers? For some reason I cannot find his splits at 1B/DH but just anecdotally it seems like his offensive numbers at those positions have definitely been Teixeira level.

Somebody calculated it the other day.  It’s probably back a few pages in this thread.  

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

unleashed the full Grayson

I can't stop laughing.  I'm going to be labeling things the "full Grayson" from here on out.  The girlfriend might get lucky tonight and I'll unleash the full Grayson, etc, etc.  

In regards to AR, I'm really happy about his on base percentage hovering around the .400 mark.  It's nice that we won't have to worry about his plate discipline and chasing pitches when (if he ever) gets called up.  The other thing I took from that blurb is that he's got 130 pro at bats and he's doing more than holding his own in AA.  Let's not forget he hasn't played a whole lot.

I'm assuming CoC's fear of a labor dispute is what's holding him back from being promoted to Baltimore, that's what I'm going to keep telling myself anyway.  Labor dispute or not, he should be our Opening Day catcher next year.  

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Note that he played first base last night.

And Dh'd in the first game so not sure what's up.

Great game by Adley, but that pitching was awful last night. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Today's game is about OBP and power, not batting average.

I’d take some issue with this.   Walks are not as productive as hits.  So yes you’d like a high OBP, but you don’t want the OBP to be driven by walks to an extreme degree.   

I’m going to stop now, because it’s not like I’m drastically disappointed with Rutschman.   I just thought he’d hit for average a bit more, that’s all.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d take some issue with this.   Walks are not as productive as hits.  So yes you’d like a high OBP, but you don’t want the OBP to be driven by walks to an extreme degree.   

I’m going to stop now, because it’s not like I’m drastically disappointed with Rutschman.   I just thought he’d hit for average a bit more, that’s all.   

I did state in a follow up post "Sure it's great" in regards to batting average. 

 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I did state in a follow up post "Sure it's great" in regards to batting average. 

 

Good enough.  

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, LTO's said:

Not everybody is hitting two home runs, one from each side of the plate, as well as another 105+ mph xbh regardless of who was pitching. I gotta say I'm sort of dumbfounded as to why people are so nitpicky about Adley's performance. AA is not a particularly easy place to hit and he's been pretty darn consistent except for one week which came directly after he traveled across the country to catch an all star game. I was surprised the O's had him catch the very first game after that but I suppose it tracks with how much they've challenged him this year. Most scouts seem to have a higher opinion of Adley after their looks this year which doesn't seem to track with how this board is discussing his season for whatever reason. 

I think most people on here have very high opinions on him, but this board is not filled with blind homers that think every player will absolutely reach their ceiling, especially when he has not dominated AA like most believe he would do. 

Even after last night's great game against some really sub par pitching, he's slashing .247/.368/.445.813 batting left-handed which is good, but not dominate numbers.

Each month he's been in AA his OPS has gotten worse. Generally you want to see a player do better as he adjusts but it appears they have adjusted to him. 

Outside of hitter friendly Bowie Stadium he's slashed .237/.323/.417/.740 in away parks. 

While scouting him, he still seems to swing and miss or foul off too many mistake pitches. Obviously no hitter is going to hit them all, but I've seen him actually get into hitters counts and get a middle-middle fastball that he fouls off or misses. 

Saying all that, he does a lot of things well too, but since you are wondering why people here don't think he's a switch hitting Mauer with power yet it's because he hasn't exactly lit up pro ball yet.

The good news is his BB rate and K rates are very good and his .286 BABIP suggests he's been a little unlucky, and his .380 WOBA is very good so there are things to like, which is why when added to his plus defensive capabilities he's rightfully considered one of the best prospects in baseball.

It's ok to point out what he needs to improve upon or that he's been a little disappointing overall (due to his extremely high expectations for a guy considered the #2 prospect in all of baseball by many national publications.)

I'm not worried about him, but I wanted him to look out of place in AA this year and in AAA by this point.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

Keith Law released his updated top 50 prospect list today. He has Adley at #1.

He was an outlier in that he didn't have Adley #2 going into the year. He had him at #6, behind Franco, Gore, Pache, Kelenic and Pearson.

He has Grayson Rodriguez at #29, noting that the O's haven't unleashed the full Grayson, not allowing him to go a third time through the order or exceed 83 pitches.

I don't have any issues with Law's take here. I don't think Rutschman is going to be a high average guy, but he is going to walk some because of his 70 level plate discipline and should settle in as a .340.-.360 OBP guy in the majors.

[interloper]

 

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think most people on here have a very high opinions on him, but this board is not filled with blind homes that think every player will absolutely reach their ceiling, especially when he has not dominated AA like most believe he would do. 

Even after last night's great game against some really sub par pitching, he's slashing .247/.368/.445.813 batting left-handed which is good, but not dominate numbers.

Each month he's been in AA his OPS has gotten worse. Generally you want to see a player do better as he adjusts but it appears they have adjusted to him. 

Outside of hitter friendly Bowie Stadium he's slashed .237/.323/.417/.740 in away parks. 

While scouting him, he still seems to swing and miss or foul off too many mistake pitches. Obviously no hitter is going to hit them all, but I've seen him actually get into hitters counts and get a middle-middle fastball that he fouls off or misses. 

Saying all that, he does a lot of things well too, but since you are wondering why people here don't think he's a switch hitting Mauer with power yet it's because he hasn't exactly lit up pro ball yet.

The good news is his BB rate and K rates are very good and his .286 BABIP suggests he's been a little unlucky, and his .380 WOBA is very good so there are things to like, which is why when added to his plus defensive capabilities he's rightfully considered one of the best prospects in baseball.

It's ok to point out what he needs to improve upon or that he's been a little disappointing overall (due to his extremely high expectations for a guy considered the #2 prospect in all of baseball by many national publications.)

I'm not worried about him, but I wanted him to look out of place in AA this year and in AAA by this point.

 

 

Also, a growing concern for me is that he simply doesn't hit when he's catching. His huge game yesterday was another start at 1B. He's gonna have to start hitting at the position he's supposed to play...

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

 

Also, a growing concern for me is that he simply doesn't hit when he's catching. His huge game yesterday was another start at 1B. He's gonna have to start hitting at the position he's supposed to play...

I think it is still too early to read a lot into that.

We will see going forward.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is still too early to read a lot into that.

We will see going forward.

Yeah. Certainly didn't have any issues hitting as a catcher in Oregon State, so hopefully it's a weird data blip. 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think most people on here have a very high opinions on him, but this board is not filled with blind homes that think every player will absolutely reach their ceiling, especially when he has not dominated AA like most believe he would do. 

Even after last night's great game against some really sub par pitching, he's slashing .247/.368/.445.813 batting left-handed which is good, but not dominate numbers.

Each month he's been in AA his OPS has gotten worse. Generally you want to see a player do better as he adjusts but it appears they have adjusted to him. 

Outside of hitter friendly Bowie Stadium he's slashed .237/.323/.417/.740 in away parks. 

While scouting him, he still seems to swing and miss or foul off too many mistake pitches. Obviously no hitter is going to hit them all, but I've seen him actually get into hitters counts and get a middle-middle fastball that he fouls off or misses. 

Saying all that, he does a lot of things well too, but since you are wondering why people here don't think he's a switch hitting Mauer with power yet it's because he hasn't exactly lit up pro ball yet.

The good news is his BB rate and K rates are very good and his .286 BABIP suggests he's been a little unlucky, and his .380 WOBA is very good so there are things to like, which is why when added to his plus defensive capabilities he's rightfully considered one of the best prospects in baseball.

It's ok to point out what he needs to improve upon or that he's been a little disappointing overall (due to his extremely high expectations for a guy considered the #2 prospect in all of baseball by many national publications.)

I'm not worried about him, but I wanted him to look out of place in AA this year and in AAA by this point.

 

 

You've mentioned his swing and miss issues a few times recently but it doesn't seem to show up in his K rate. 

Can you elaborate?