2022 early look top prospects

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Yeah, gotta agree. They are pretty dumb.  Of course, this is all total conjecture by Callis and I believe he used the phrase "all things being equal".

No doubt but the concept is stupid.  

I tend to agree that Holliday is the most likely pick right now.  I think that is a very good pick but not the best pick.  

My other issue is that I don't buy the Orioles will do what Pitt did last year and grab 3 first round talents with their next 3 picks.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think things are "equal" at the very top of a draft board.

Especially when you are throwing seasons and the draft is your only advantage for doing so.  You worked to be terrible for this situation.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think things are "equal" at the very top of a draft 

I  read Elias say Witt, Vaughn, and Rutschman were all worthy of being the #1 pick in 2019.  Of course, you have to make a decision.  The tiebreaker could be position, money, HS vs. college. 

Keith Law says there are 5 guys worthy of being the top guy although he has Jones #1.  He would bail on Jones to save $2M.

Maybe these guys are dumb.  

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Especially when you are throwing seasons and the draft is your only advantage for doing so.  You worked to be terrible for this situation.

Did you have a problem passing on consensus Austin Martin and winding up with Kjerstad, Mayo, and Baumler?

As people keep trying to tell you but it just doesn't sink in, being #1 is about the pool amount and how you use it.  2020 looks good.  2021, not as good so far.  

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No doubt but the concept is stupid.  

I tend to agree that Holliday is the most likely pick right now.  I think that is a very good pick but not the best pick.  

My other issue is that I don't buy the Orioles will do what Pitt did last year and grab 3 first round talents with their next 3 picks.  

The concept is stupid but you liked what the Pirates did last year?  Got it.

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I  read Elias say Witt, Vaughn, and Rutschman were all worthy of being the #1 pick in 2019.  Of course, you have to make a decision.  The tiebreaker could be position, money, HS vs. college. 

Keith Law says there are 5 guys worthy of being the top guy although he has Jones #1.  He would bail on Jones to save $2M.

Maybe these guys are dumb.  

First off, I didn't use the term dumb, so kindly don't come at me as if I did.

Has KLaw watched all of these kids play?  How much time has he spent on the top 5 guys?  Is it a hundredth of the time the Orioles have spent?  I don't think it is.

 

I don't think that when you have the huge data set that the Orioles have on these kids that it is possible to still come to a dead heat at the end of the race.  Certainly not a five way dead heat.

One guy is going to be ahead and you should pick that guy.

As shown in the 2019 draft, you can pick first, take the BPA and still have money to sign an overslot later in the draft.

 

I'm not saying that going underslot is always a bad idea but when you have the top pick, the largest pool, and the Mets lurking this isn't the year.

[oriolesacox]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34160528/2022-mlb-mock-draft-20-kiley-mcdaniel-projects-first-41-picks-odds-no-1-overall

Kiley leans going Jones. May not be enough million dollar signs down the board to be worth saving at the top. Interesting take.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

First off, I didn't use the term dumb, so kindly don't come at me as if I did.

Has KLaw watched all of these kids play?  How much time has he spent on the top 5 guys?  Is it a hundredth of the time the Orioles have spent?  I don't think it is.

 

I don't think that when you have the huge data set that the Orioles have on these kids that it is possible to still come to a dead heat at the end of the race.  Certainly not a five way dead heat.

One guy is going to be ahead and you should pick that guy.

As shown in the 2019 draft, you can pick first, take the BPA and still have money to sign an overslot later in the draft.

 

I'm not saying that going underslot is always a bad idea but when you have the top pick, the largest pool, and the Mets lurking this isn't the year.

Sure, the Orioles have done more work on this kids than Keith Law. So when they take "whoever" #1 you know they are making a very well thought out decision with probably even more angles than you can come up with. 

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Did you have a problem passing on consensus Austin Martin and winding up with Kjerstad, Mayo, and Baumler?

As people keep trying to tell you but it just doesn't sink in, being #1 is about the pool amount and how you use it.  2020 looks good.  2021, not as good so far.  

I didn't really like Martin, as I have said time and time again.

The draft pool is important but the big difference in draft pools is the difference between the higher pick and lower pick.

 

Sure, you can spread that money around but really, the more money is because you have the higher pick.  And besides, as I showed and as is obvious, the draft doesn't produce many good players beyond R1, so tanking just to save money to spend on players that are very unlikely to make it isn't a good strategy.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The concept is stupid but you liked what the Pirates did last year?  Got it.

I never said I liked it but if you are going to take the lesser talent on the board with the first pick, that is exactly what you should be doing.  The Orioles didn't do that in 2021.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, the Pirates go over their bonus pool money every year and pay the penalty.  The Orioles, I believe, have yet to do that, so until the Orioles show they are willing to do that, we can't even compare ourselves to Pitt and maybe, if the Orioles did that, they wouldn't feel like they have to take a lesser talent with the high pick.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

BTW, the Pirates go over their bonus pool money every year and pay the penalty.  The Orioles, I believe, have yet to do that, so until the Orioles show they are willing to do that, we can't even compare ourselves to Pitt and maybe, if the Orioles did that, they wouldn't feel like they have to take a lesser talent with the high pick.

The first tier of sanction is just money.

Of course the O's need to spend all their allotted money before they can go over. 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I didn't really like Martin, as I have said time and time again.

The draft pool is important but the big difference in draft pools is the difference between the higher pick and lower pick.

 

Sure, you can spread that money around but really, the more money is because you have the higher pick.  And besides, as I showed and as is obvious, the draft doesn't produce many good players beyond R1, so tanking just to save money to spend on players that are very unlikely to make it isn't a good strategy.

 

 

You liked Martin leading up to the draft and last minute went Asa Lacy and then finally Zac Veen.  It really doesn't matter.  You're all over the place. This year you argue for the consensus #1 guy.  When the Orioles drafted #2, Austin Martin was the consensus top player on the board.

Was saving money on the #2 pick in 2020 a bad strategy?

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I never said I liked it but if you are going to take the lesser talent on the board with the first pick, that is exactly what you should be doing.  The Orioles didn't do that in 2021.

So were the Pirates dumb or not?  

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, oriolesacox said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34160528/2022-mlb-mock-draft-20-kiley-mcdaniel-projects-first-41-picks-odds-no-1-overall

Kiley leans going Jones. May not be enough million dollar signs down the board to be worth saving at the top. Interesting take.

Interesting. He has Johnson #2 on his board and sees him and Jones pretty close but still feels the smart move is just to pay Jones, mostly because he doesn't see them making the saves money work in a big way.