Cedric Mullins as a CF

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Players don’t historically top out at 27 for no reason.

The article I quoted is excellent.   Basically, there’s a period of time where the benefit of gaining experience is outweighing physical decline.    And then, it isn’t.    And the rate of physical decline accelerates at some point.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The article I quoted is excellent.   Basically, there’s a period of time where the benefit of gaining experience is outweighing physical decline.    And then, it isn’t.    And the rate of physical decline accelerates at some point.  

Yep..just another reason why you don’t leave these guys languishing in the minors.

People don’t want Rutschman debuting until he’s at least 24 years old.  Just crazy to me.

[Ruzious]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure.   That’s true of most players.   
“an athlete's physical decline begins before most of us notice it, and even the 23-year-old body can do things today that it might not be able to do tomorrow. Fastball speed starts going down in a player's early 20s, and spin rate drops with it. Exit velocity begins to decline at 23 or 24. An average runner slows a little more than 1 inch per second every year, beginning pretty much immediately upon his debut. It takes a little over four seconds for most runners to reach first base, which means with each birthday, it's as if the bases were pulled 4 inches farther apart.”

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23916211/major-league-baseball-aging-cycle-how-mike-trout-becomes-albert-pujols

 

New rule for the next CBA that the owners would like:  Once a CFer turns 30, they send them to the glue factory.  They figure it's a win/win, because they need to feed the minor leaguers somehow.  

[Ruzious]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep..just another reason why you don’t leave these guys languishing in the minors.

People don’t want Rutschman debuting until he’s at least 24 years old.  Just crazy to me.

Yup - And while I think it does take catchers longer to learn the position, they need to factor in that the wear and tear in minor league games is going to shorten the length of their major league careers - so it's especially important to shorten the learning curve.  I can't imagine a player as gifted as Rutschman is going to learn quicker in the minors than he would in the majors, and people like me will pay to see him in the majors even if we lose.          

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep..just another reason why you don’t leave these guys languishing in the minors.

People don’t want Rutschman debuting until he’s at least 24 years old.  Just crazy to me.

Well, the logic is this: better to have an age 29 Rutschman on your contending team than to have 23-year old Rutschman on a team that’s not competitive, even if the 23-year old version is the better player (which is debatable due to the trade-off between physical ability and experience).

To be clear, I’m not advocating that position, just explaining it.   Personally, if and when we judge Adley is ready, I’d like to see him called up.   My logic is, the sooner he gets the experience he needs, the sooner he’ll be ready to be a cornerstone of a contending team.   Same would be true of Rodriguez and others.    The key issue is whether they are ready enough that gaining major league experience will help them.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, the logic is this: better to have an age 29 Rutschman on your contending team than to have 23-year old Rutschman on a team that’s not competitive, even if the 23-year old version is the better player (which is debatable due to the trade-off between physical ability and experience).

To be clear, I’m not advocating that position, just explaining it.   Personally, if and when we judge Adley is ready, I’d like to see him called up.   My logic is, the sooner he gets the experience he needs, the sooner he’ll be ready to be a cornerstone of a contending team.   Same would be true of Rodriguez and others.    The key issue is whether they are ready enough that gaining major league experience will help them.

By my count, he will be here for his age 29 season if he is brought up today

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

By my count, he will be here for his age 29 season if he is brought up today

Yes.  My post was addressing a scenario where he’d been up all season.   The same logic would apply if you made it a full season at 30 vs. a partial season at 23.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.  My post was addressing a scenario where he’d been up all season.   The same logic would apply if you made it a full season at 30 vs. a partial season at 23.

Yea but that logic assumes contention for his age 30 season or that you would want him here at age 30 or that you haven’t signed him long term prior to then.

Lots of assumptions to make.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea but that logic assumes contention for his age 30 season or that you would want him here at age 30 or that you haven’t signed him long term prior to then.

Lots of assumptions to make.

Sure, plus it assumes the service time rules don’t change in some fundamental way.   Still, the one thing we know for sure is that Adley won’t help the O’s contend, or even sniff .500, in 2021.    So the odds are better that the 30 year old Rutschman will help the 2028 Orioles contend, because those odds aren’t zero.  

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure, plus it assumes the service time rules don’t change in some fundamental way.   Still, the one thing we know for sure is that Adley won’t help the O’s contend, or even sniff .500, in 2021.    So the odds are better that the 30 year old Rutschman will help the 2028 Orioles contend, because those odds aren’t zero.  

But Adley up this year could be in better position to help us be a lot better in 2022 and that needs to start being the focus.

[Hallas]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea but that logic assumes contention for his age 30 season or that you would want him here at age 30 or that you haven’t signed him long term prior to then.

Lots of assumptions to make.

I think it's pretty easy to make the default assumption that you are not going to sign a catcher to a long term deal at the age of 29/30.  Maybe an extension that pushes out FA 2-3 years but anything more than that seems questionable unless he is Buster Posey.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But Adley up this year could be in better position to help us be a lot better in 2022 and that needs to start being the focus.

You’ll note that’s my position as well, once he’s judged ready.   I’d like him to get the most major league experience possible this year, consistent with his development.  

I’m not going to say more here, since this is supposedly a thread about Mullins as a CF.
 

[Hallas]

On the topic of Mullins' defense, DRS/UZR both don't like his defense, but it seems that Statcast likes him a bit more.  He's tied for 2nd in outs above average, and tied for 13th in success rate added.

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I think it's pretty easy to make the default assumption that you are not going to sign a catcher to a long term deal at the age of 29/30.  Maybe an extension that pushes out FA 2-3 years but anything more than that seems questionable unless he is Buster Posey.

Right..you sign him tomorrow to a 7 or 8 year deal.

[scOtt]

On 6/2/2021 at 9:32 AM, spiritof66 said:

The similarity to me is that when I see a ball hit to center field and Mullins is out there, I figure it will be caught if it's catchable. I had the same comfortable feeling when Adam was out there. 

A little different from Kiermaier a few years back. When an Oriole hit a ball to center field with him out there, I figured he would catch it, as long as it stayed in the park,  whether or not it was catchable. 

I like him a LOT!

 

And hate him most night TB plays us... But he is REALLY good!