Connolly: Trade Deadline thoughts

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

 

I think I'm pretty much in line with what Evans is saying on this...  If any of these trades occur, it's an indicator that the FO still feels that we are rebuilding.  I would put Means and Mullins in this same category.  If one or both of those guys gets traded we are still rebuilding.  I don't feel that way about Mancini.  Mancini could be traded and I don't think it indicates much unless they acquire a decent catcher.  For me, that starts to signal that the center of the field is beginning to solidify (I forget which guy stated that, but I think Evans, again.)

I'm still not against any of these moves.  But I find it interesting that the guys being quoted in the article are in agreement NOT to trade Means or Mullins unless there is some blockbuster deal.  Dealing these guys would be a demonstration that we really do stink as much as we seem to from watching.

I disagree..i think what you trade them for would indicate that but not necessarily if you trade them.

One deal I talked about is Baz and Brujan.  If Tampa did that (not saying they would) we get 2 pieces that you can put on the ML team next year and maybe even get a look this year.  They can help you now.

If you traded him for high upside A ball type guys, that signals rebuild but close to or in the majors young players means you think you can still contend now and feel the trade actually improves those chances.

[vab]

The key here is Means' trade value is not likely to go down much at all and is much more likely to maintain or go up in the offseason and next year. Unless you're bowled over you keep Means right now. Mancini, on the other hand, has about as much value as he's ever going to have right now and his value is more likely to go down going forward. He probably should be moved if not at the deadline this year definitely in the offseason. 

[connja]

As we approach another trade deadline and look at the possibility of again trading away our only productive players for little more than salary relief and a few long shots, hard not to question the logic.  

We literally are starting a AAA infield almost every day with the exception of first base.  Meanwhile, Manny has 15 homers, 57 rbi, 9 stolen bases, and .828 ops and typical gg quality defense.  J. Schoop has 16 homers, 49 rbi and an .816 ops.  

Teams don't usually give up their #1 prospects at the deadline anymore. Unless something changes with that, I think our path to contention is much faster by keeping Means, Mullins, Santander.  The only one we should consider is Mancini, and only because he's older, more expensive and plays a position we have replacements for.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, vab said:

The key here is Means' trade value is not likely to go down much at all and is much more likely to maintain or go up in the offseason and next year.

It depends entirely on how well he pitches and whether he stays healthy.   

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, connja said:

As we approach another trade deadline and look at the possibility of again trading away our only productive players for little more than salary relief and a few long shots, hard not to question the logic.  

We literally are starting a AAA infield almost every day with the exception of first base.  Meanwhile, Manny has 15 homers, 57 rbi, 9 stolen bases, and .828 ops and typical gg quality defense.  J. Schoop has 16 homers, 49 rbi and an .816 ops.  

Teams don't usually give up their #1 prospects at the deadline anymore. Unless something changes with that, I think our path to contention is much faster by keeping Means, Mullins, Santander.  The only one we should consider is Mancini, and only because he's older, more expensive and plays a position we have replacements for.

Yeah but Mountcastle is the reigning AAA MVP. 

Edited July 6, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[orioles22]

4 hours ago, connja said:

As we approach another trade deadline and look at the possibility of again trading away our only productive players for little more than salary relief and a few long shots, hard not to question the logic.  

We literally are starting a AAA infield almost every day with the exception of first base.  Meanwhile, Manny has 15 homers, 57 rbi, 9 stolen bases, and .828 ops and typical gg quality defense.  J. Schoop has 16 homers, 49 rbi and an .816 ops.  

Teams don't usually give up their #1 prospects at the deadline anymore. Unless something changes with that, I think our path to contention is much faster by keeping Means, Mullins, Santander.  The only one we should consider is Mancini, and only because he's older, more expensive and plays a position we have replacements for.

I love this.

It seems like everyone is in such a hurry to trade away our best players to save the Orioles more money they won't spend.

I never understood why we couldn't keep Schoop to help during the rebuild, and I don't like the idea of trading Means or Mullins. I wouldn't mind moving Santander, but I guess that's because I don't expect him to repeat what he did last season.

Sell the team if you can't afford to compete.

[drjohnnyfeva]

22 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I disagree..i think what you trade them for would indicate that but not necessarily if you trade them.

One deal I talked about is Baz and Brujan.  If Tampa did that (not saying they would) we get 2 pieces that you can put on the ML team next year and maybe even get a look this year.  They can help you now.

If you traded him for high upside A ball type guys, that signals rebuild but close to or in the majors young players means you think you can still contend now and feel the trade actually improves those chances.

Perhaps so, yet I still think we are a few years away.  If we say 2-3 years (I say 3-5), that means both of these guys become UFA's at the beginning of our competitive window; unless there is are extensions, Means is an UFA in 2025 - right at the end of that window, and Mullins is an UFA in 2026.  If there are no extensions, is their value in remaining around until they contribute a year or two to a semi-competitive team or do we trade to acquire pieces this year or next that that would remain around a little longer into the "competitiveness?" 

I will add, that one could take the "experts" opinion to keep these guys could be that we are closer than "we" think to the team making the push to become more competitive.  And if the window is actually 1-2 years, these two guys have value to us for a year or so longer before reaching UFA while we still work to surround them with youth from our system and FA's.

I still think that a trade of these types of players will indicate where we are.  I see your point about getting ready talent tho.  I'm still in the frame of mind that if we trade we are 3-5 years out and if we don't we're maybe in the 2-3 year area of making a push. 

And if somehow we were to get extensions worked out with these guys, that would also be a big indicator of the time frame we're talking about.  To me, that would signal that the club is preparing, but that they want these guys around for the push for longer than just the year or two it's gonna take to get there.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

Perhaps so, yet I still think we are a few years away.  If we say 2-3 years (I say 3-5), that means both of these guys become UFA's at the beginning of our competitive window; unless there is are extensions, Means is an UFA in 2025 - right at the end of that window, and Mullins is an UFA in 2026.  If there are no extensions, is their value in remaining around until they contribute a year or two to a semi-competitive team or do we trade to acquire pieces this year or next that that would remain around a little longer into the "competitiveness?" 

I will add, that one could take the "experts" opinion to keep these guys could be that we are closer than "we" think to the team making the push to become more competitive.  And if the window is actually 1-2 years, these two guys have value to us for a year or so longer before reaching UFA while we still work to surround them with youth from our system and FA's.

I still think that a trade of these types of players will indicate where we are.  I see your point about getting ready talent tho.  I'm still in the frame of mind that if we trade we are 3-5 years out and if we don't we're maybe in the 2-3 year area of making a push. 

And if somehow we were to get extensions worked out with these guys, that would also be a big indicator of the time frame we're talking about.  To me, that would signal that the club is preparing, but that they want these guys around for the push for longer than just the year or two it's gonna take to get there.

If you think they are 3-5 years away, it would be moronic to keep Means unless the offers aren’t good.  
 

This team should be 500ish next year and ready to be a real contender the following year. If they aren’t, Elias has failed miserably.

[oriole]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you think they are 3-5 years away, it would be moronic to keep Means unless the offers aren’t good.  
 

This team should be 500ish next year and ready to be a real contender the following year. If they aren’t, Elias has failed miserably.

Sometimes it feels like we’re always “2-3 years away”. Time is a mental construct and we’re forever expected to chase that dangling carrot. 

But yeah, I’m on board that if next year is not a transitional year then this has gone on too long and has the whole forever rebuild vibe to it. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, oriole said:

Sometimes it feels like we’re always “2-3 years away”. Time is a mental construct and we’re forever expected to chase that dangling carrot. 

But yeah, I’m on board that if next year is not a transitional year then this has gone on too long and has the whole forever rebuild vibe to it. 

Well, the organization has never fully embraced building a real organization until now, at least in the minors, internationally, etc…

They now have to show they can build a winner up here. 

[drjohnnyfeva]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If you think they are 3-5 years away, it would be moronic to keep Means unless the offers aren’t good.  
 

This team should be 500ish next year and ready to be a real contender the following year. If they aren’t, Elias has failed miserably.

Well, that's what I'm saying...  I don't think we are seeing a team that is a .500ish club next year; maybe 2023???  Even moving Means and Mullins for a true haul now doesn't mean we will be competitive in 2022 or 2023.  So, while I see your point of young, MLB ready talent garnered in a trade helping us compete, I have to disagree with it with where we are now.  We are not good.

If they trade those two, imo, that is an indication that they feel there is still more work to do and these guys won't be on the team or just about off, by the time the team is ready.  So to your statement that it would be moronic to hold onto them because - 1. - they feel they are ready or 2. - they haven't gotten a good offer, would be the only two reasonable excuses for not moving them now.  So, for me, moving them indicates they are not ready.

I stand by my 3-5 year window.  IMO, it was a lengthier rebuild from the beginning than many gave credit for or thought to.  There was a lot of really Orange Colored glasses estimates going in, but getting into a market, developing a cohesive farm system, and scouting system were huge endeavors.  So, I think we make a .500ish season in 2023 and I think we maybe play Playoff level in 2024 or 2025.  Also, I don't think Elias is a failure and this is the never-ending rebuild, I just think it is what it is: An overhaul of a poorly managed system.  And that takes time.

So I'm back where I was.  I feel like if they don't trade they think they are close - in which case, I'm wrong and happy to be so.  But if they trade, I think my timeline is where they are, but if things happen sooner... bonus!   Good baseball finally returns to Baltimore!

 

[7Mo]

5 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

So I'm back where I was.  I feel like if they don't trade they think they are close - in which case, I'm wrong and happy to be so.  But if they trade, I think my timeline is where they are, but if things happen sooner... bonus!   Good baseball finally returns to Baltimore!

 

Do you disagree with the idea that any one, or all, of Means, Mullins, Mancini and Santander would be traded if the package coming back is good enough?

[connja]

4 hours ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

Well, that's what I'm saying...  I don't think we are seeing a team that is a .500ish club next year; maybe 2023???  ]

But this isn't the club you will be seeing next year either.   Add Rutschman, Hall, GRod, Jones probably a couple more.  Perhaps a free agent to play IF.  If not .500, much closer and much much more entertaining.

[drjohnnyfeva]

3 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Do you disagree with the idea that any one, or all, of Means, Mullins, Mancini and Santander would be traded if the package coming back is good enough?

I think if the package is right, they could all be traded.  I think that the signal about where the club thinks they are is in the Means and Mullins area.  I don't think they trade them to try to gain pieces to field a competitive team next year.  I don't think you can bank on other clubs prospects completely in that way.  If they deal those guys, my feeling is they don't think they are close and they are still in the "Acquire Potential MLB Capital" phase of this rebuild.  And the capital they gain should be very high.  There are 3 weeks for teams to see how real both are before fringe teams come into the picture, ready to spare no expense to make a run, so it might not happen until the end.

If they keep them it's either the club thinks we are close OR they didn't get a sweet enough deal.  There's no way to tell which it is until next year or in the prep phases of next year with FA, etc.

Mancini is a hard call.  He's still a feel good story locally, but if a good offer comes, he's likely gone.  He does carry that PR aspect, but if the pot is sweet enough, I don't think a rebuilding club hesitates.  He's a pretty good piece for a contender and we have his replacement waiting in the wings. 

Santander is expendable.

I'm willing to be patient because I don't think this team has ever done a "rebuild" right.  Despite saying we've been thru several since the 80's.  I think this time they are trying to do it right and that takes time. 

[drjohnnyfeva]

1 minute ago, connja said:

But this isn't the club you will be seeing next year either.   Add Rutschman, Hall, GRod, Jones probably a couple more.  Perhaps a free agent to play IF.  If not .500, much closer and much much more entertaining.

Great, but we have no idea what they are going to do at the MLB level and even whether that's the plan.  We have indications, but we had those this year with players and some were shockingly flat compared to the expectations.  That's why I continue to say that the trade of Means and Mullins would signal that we're still not there yet.