Connolly: Trade Deadline thoughts

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Oriole1940 said:

I always hear how bad Trey is defensively.  Well, I checked the last 3 years, excluding 2020 which I did not find.   AT 1st base 2018, 992% Fielding 363 Innings.  2019 1st base  Fielding  1.000%  449 innings.  2021 so far, 997%  Fielding  455 innings.  Sounds good to me.  Yes,  when they stuck him in the outfield, he had a learning curve, but he did his best like the loyal soldier he is.  

Fielding percentage is not that good a measure for a 1B.   First basemen don’t make many errors.   But range is a distinguishing feature, and the ability to start DPs and save errors by the other infielders by scooping bounced throws.  

Anyway, nobody thinks he’s a bad 1B.  He was a bad OF, is all.   
 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 7/16/2021 at 3:51 PM, interloper said:

A few weeks ago I was dead certain that Elias would trade Mancini. Now I feel more and more like they are going to hold. In fact I feel like it would be kind of a shocker if he's dealt. I'm not sure what exactly changed my mind, it's just a gut feeling. 

One read on holding Mancini is that the O's basically chicken out with regards to the PR hit. And that would be a fair read and one that I wouldn't argue about, though it's of course impossible to know for sure.

Another read would be that they really do consider him to be a team glue guy who is beneficial not only to the clubhouse but to the lineup and just having a steady bat in there. Of course, it's very easy to simply be cynical of that idea. 

Like most decisions, it will be a combination of the two. He's valuable to the organization, he helps your young guys, he probably won't bring a ton back in a trade, and the perceived PR hit would be enormous. For those reasons, I think he stays or is traded in the offseason so that you don't have to trade him in the middle of his comeback season. 

Also - I really think the O's want him to win Comeback Player of the Year as an Oriole, as silly as that might be to factor into your baseball decisions. 

This is why the baseball executive aka Elias needs to make baseball decisions.  The O's are going to lose 100+ games this season even with Mancini's team glue, clubhouse leadership, and likability.  I have no question that Elias wants to trade him.  I'm sure the O's can spin the trade to be doing Mancini a favor by trading him to a playoff team.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

This is why the baseball executive aka Elias needs to make baseball decisions.  The O's are going to lose 100+ games this season even with Mancini's team glue, clubhouse leadership, and likability.  I have no question that Elias wants to trade him.  I'm sure the O's can spin the trade to be doing Mancini a favor by trading him to a playoff team.

I think the market for Mancini is down and Elias is hopeful a second half resurgence leads to a stronger market in the offseason.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

On 7/16/2021 at 8:33 AM, Roll Tide said:

Unless John Angelos is a bold face liar I don’t think they have any intention of selling the birds. 
 

Many of us wished that Peter would have sold over the years. 

Sigh. The team is most certainty being prepped for sale, not much of a secret at this point. What he said is he will not sell to a non-local buyer, which is true. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

On 7/16/2021 at 7:44 AM, Frobby said:

I don’t think Trey brings back premium talent, depending what you mean by that  term.   But he’d bring back a lot more than Joc Pederson.

Yep, agreed, not worth it, they better keep him. Regardless, after the last 2 drafts, no longer on Team Elias. 

[Pushmonkey]

If anything we need starting pitchers and I doubt any organization is trading starting pitchers due to trying to get innings. 

[Philip]

If the team is really being prepared for sale, it makes sense to eliminate debt and to avoid taking on new debt. With that in mind, it would make it unlikely they would pay Trey’s arbitration price(or anyone else’s) And rather than non-tender him in December They would trade him for whatever they can get now.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

If the team is really being prepared for sale, it makes sense to eliminate debt and to avoid taking on new debt. With that in mind, it would make it unlikely they would pay Trey’s arbitration price(or anyone else’s) And rather than non-tender him in December They would trade him for whatever they can get now.

I don’t know if the team will be sold soon (that probably would be for the best), but Trey is too valuable to non-tender. If Trey gets traded for mediocre prospects (to avoid paying arbitration), it could interpreted as more evidence that the Orioles are being put up for sale. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don’t know if the team will be sold soon (that probably would be for the best), but Trey is too valuable to non-tender. If Trey gets traded for mediocre prospects (to avoid paying arbitration), it could interpreted as more evidence that the Orioles are being put up for sale. 

I don't agree with this line of thought.  To me Trey being traded in a cost cutting measure would be a sign the team wasn't being put up for sale.

Anyone willing to drop a billion on a team isn't going to view a season of Mancini as an impediment.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don’t know if the team will be sold soon (that probably would be for the best), but Trey is too valuable to non-tender. If Trey gets traded for mediocre prospects (to avoid paying arbitration), it could interpreted as more evidence that the Orioles are being put up for sale. 

Yes I agree

[Bmorebirds24]

14 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Yep, agreed, not worth it, they better keep him. Regardless, after the last 2 drafts, no longer on Team Elias. 

How much do you know about the players that were drafted the past two years?  I don’t know anything on these guys other than a few articles that were posted about them.  Do you know enough to ruin my hopes of this rebuild actually working?

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, Bmorebirds24 said:

How much do you know about the players that were drafted the past two years?  I don’t know anything on these guys other than a few articles that were posted about them.  Do you know enough to ruin my hopes of this rebuild actually working?

I can tell you the Adley Rutchman draft was a very good one…what happened after that year is my question? And I get he was limited…

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

10 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don’t know if the team will be sold soon (that probably would be for the best), but Trey is too valuable to non-tender. If Trey gets traded for mediocre prospects (to avoid paying arbitration), it could interpreted as more evidence that the Orioles are being put up for sale. 

They will be sold shortly after Peter passes, I don’t believe this is much of a secret at this point, hence the crap product and anemic payroll. 

[NCRaven]

Mancini is a 29 year-old, right handed hitting first baseman.  Those are not in high demand.  He’s in arbitration and will be making $10+ mil next year.  Few teams will want to take on that salary for a good but not great player.  I doubt Elias gets an offer anywhere near good enough to make him pull the trigger.  I’d offer Trey 3/$36 mil and be glad he’s only signed through his age 32 season.  I doubt he gets much more on the open market after his age 30 season next year.

[Bmorebirds24]

2 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I can tell you the Adley Rutchman draft was a very good one…what happened after that year is my question? And I get he was limited…

I’ve definitely read that was our best draft. But I’m asking how much information you have on these players that we’ve yet to see play. I personally don’t watch college baseball or high school to say that I think someone is better or worse. 
   My guess is Elias wanted to play it safe this year and last given the circumstances? The floor of the organization seems to be a bit safer than what we’ve had in past years. How many top baseball picks play like top first round picks? Even Trout fell to the later part of the first and when I watch him play I think How can anyone pass on the way he plays the game.