Rutschman to Norfolk

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

Rutschman has caugt 53 games and played first base or DH in 29 or something close to that.  I don't think that they are wearing him down as a catcher.  While I would have loved to see Adley in Baltimore, I think that's more of a flaw in the current CBA than it is in the Orioles development plan.  Given the system, keeping him down until next year makes sense.  Corn's strawman argument - well why not wait until 2023 - is nonsense and I suspect he knows it.  It's possible to believe waiting for 2022 is the right move, given the current CBA, without taking it to ridiculous extremes.

Why is that a strawman argument?

The reason people give to not bring up Adley now is because we would be wasting a year of his service time in a year where we aren’t contending.  
 

Do you expect 2022 to be different?  If you don’t and I think you would be hard pressed to find many fans who think we can/should be even 500, it’s fair to ask why waste a year of service time in 2022?

The real point is that is a horrible reason to not bring him up but yet it’s the one most commonly stated.

[interloper]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You can definitely argue that you wasted one of those years in 2021.

Why draw the line at next year, when the team isn’t going to be contending?

That's fine and I get that take, it's just that in my opinion, I think the sweet spot is bringing him up after 3 weeks next season. That way it's like, you've done your development diligence by getting his feet wet in AAA, you've gained an extra year, and the upside for a month cup of coffee at the end of 2021 probably didn't outweigh those two things.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, interloper said:

That's fine, it's just that in my opinion, I think the sweet spot is bringing him up after 3 weeks next season. That way it's like, you've done your development diligence by getting his feet wet in AAA, you've gained an extra year, and the upside for a month cup of coffee at the end of 2021 probably didn't outweigh those two things.

I think it would be dumb to bring him up for a cup of coffee this year.  That’s why he should have been up 4-6 weeks ago.

[interloper]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I think it would be dumb to bring him up for a cup of coffee this year.  That’s why he should have been up 4-6 weeks ago.

I get that take. I guess for me it's just that the benefits to a longer look in 2021 don't outweigh the benefits of the extra year of control. That's about as simply as I can put it, and hey, just my opinion. 

I do think it would be very bad to wait any longer than those 3 weeks. 

[Moose Milligan]

Snore.

Wake me up when he gets called up to Baltimore.  

I don't know how to quantify the difference between AAA and AA, really.  You get guys making the jump to the majors from AA, you also get guys making the jump to the majors from AAA.  IMO, there's not a huge difference.  I expect him to do well in AAA just like he was at AA.  

[vab]

I predict Rutchsman hits better at Norfolk than he did at Bowie. He'll see more strikes at the triple A level so walk rate down, damage rate up.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why not wait until three weeks into 2023?

There are three reasons.   

1.   Once he’s ready for the majors, it benefits the team to have him getting major league experience so that he’ll be a better player by the time we are ready to contend.  

2.   Because of the aging curve for catchers, his 2022 season is likely to be better than his 2029 season.

3.   From a morale standpoint, there’s only so long you can keep a major league ready player down in the minors.   And the fact that’s he’s ready is likely to be less debatable next year compared to this one.   
 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Snore.

Wake me up when he gets called up to Baltimore.  

I don't know how to quantify the difference between AAA and AA, really.  You get guys making the jump to the majors from AA, you also get guys making the jump to the majors from AAA.  IMO, there's not a huge difference.  I expect him to do well in AAA just like he was at AA.  

I think the difference is underrated.   Maybe especially for a catcher, since probably half the players have had major league experience and you are having to think along with them at a level of sophistication not found in AA.

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the difference is underrated.   Maybe especially for a catcher, since probably half the players have had major league experience and you are having to think along with them at a level of sophistication not found in AA.

Well Frobbacino, we're going to have to agree to disagree on this one. 

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There are three reasons.   

1.   Once he’s ready for the majors, it benefits the team to have him getting major league experience so that he’ll be a better player by the time we are ready to contend.  

2.   Because of the aging curve for catchers, his 2022 season is likely to be better than his 2029 season.

3.   From a morale standpoint, there’s only so long you can keep a major league ready player down in the minors.   And the fact that’s he’s ready is likely to be less debatable next year compared to this one.   
 

1) He is and has been ready.

2) The aging curve exists in 2021 as well.

3) True

[Aglets]

Looking forward to this "debate" continuing for another 8 months or so.  When it has already been abundantly clear since Day 1 what the plan was for Adley's development schedule.  

As I have said before......if it makes you guys happy to continue to rail and complain about what we ALL KNOW is going to happen then I wish you well.  I see no upside to explaining why what we all know is going to happen.............is going to happen.

[Yardball85]

2 hours ago, Explosivo said:

Well come on, look at it. We get great news about a great kid and future of our team and all they can do is quibble about things out of their control. It’s odd. We should all be happy for the kid and the future of the Orioles as this guy will have a greater impact than we can possible imagine. He’s our Johnny Bench and not only will he transform the position for this soon to be great team, but also he’ll have a deep impact on the pitching staff as well. Grayson is hopefully soon to follow in his footsteps to AAA and Westburg and Henderson are hopefully on their way to AA soon as well. It seems that the most vocal on here can be the most short sighted and it’s a bit annoying even if we are all fans of this soon to be great team. My only hope is those who choose to moan over good news will know what to do with themselves when we win it all soon.

It's a message board.... Posters on here are smart enough to post their thoughts/analytics over simple "Yays!."  That's what makes it a good board. 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1) He is and has been ready.

2) The aging curve exists in 2021 as well.

3) True

1.  Subject to debate.  
2.  Not as pronounced as for 2022/29.

[SteveA]

6 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

I think that's a consideration, but I think adding him (or not adding him) to the 40-man is as big a consideration.  To be honest I haven't looked yet at who all we need to add this offseason but I know there's at least a few legitimate prospects that need to be added.  Though I'm also sure there are a few at the back end of the 40-man that could probably be jettisoned with little concern.

Not adding him to the 40 is not just a matter of there being space on the 40.

If he is added to the 40, and there is a work stoppage -- Adley will be sitting on his butt on April 1.

If he's not on the 40, and there is a work stoppage -- Adley will be playing for the Tides on April 1, gaining more experience, more at bats.   Probably catching Grayson Rodriguez and maybe DL Hall and Baumann.

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Why is that a strawman argument?

It's a strawman because it sets up a false choice.  The argument assumes that if you support keeping AR down in 2021 it automatically means that you must, or at least should, support keeping him down in future years.  That is a false argument.

Rutschman started 2021 with a handful of games in the Gulf Coast and South Atlantic Leagues.  [Side note:  I hate what MLB has done to the names of the minor leagues.]  So giving him one full season in the minor leagues is not an outrageous proposition.  And given the current CBA, having him play for 3 weeks or so at AAA in 2022, makes sense.  Also, it's not as if the Orioles and Rutschman are an isolated case.  So, it's possible to reasonably support keeping AR down for 2021.  Another argument is the fact that he does not need to be protected on from the Rule 5 draft and with the current CBA expiring after this season, adding him to the 40 man now would mean that he couldn't play in Norfolk next season if the season is delayed by a work stoppage.

However, after 2021, AR will have that full season under his belt, the Orioles will have retained that extra year of service time, and upon his promotion a few weeks into the 2022 season, the Orioles will be that much better prepared to take a step forward.

Hopefully, Grayson Rodriguez will join him in Norfolk soon and we'll see them both in Baltimore at some point next year.