Yanks: 5/80 for AJ?

[zff4]

The risk is just too big.

It's like a formula: (the risk is too big) = (Paul Byrd)

[DrungoHazewood]

Jon,

Do you think we should be the team to offer 5/85 to Burnett?

I follow your thinking, and I agree that you get what you pay for. Do you think we're in the position to make that type of offer to AJ?

No, I don't think they should. Big ticket free agents rarely pay off. When they do they're almost always the last piece or one of the last pieces for a near-playoff team. Free agent pitchers are especially risky.

If I were the O's I'd rather have Lowe than any other MLB free agent. He's been very healthy, pretty consistent, and a good bet to give you four years of league average +/- 1.00 run performance, and near 200 innings a year.

I'd offer Lowe a very competitive contract, try to sign a Japanese starter at a good $ figure, and avoid a bidding war for anyone.

The O's need to realize (I'm fairly sure they have) that there are always options besides $70M free agents and Rick Helling.

[JTrea81]

5/75 should land Burnett here as this is where he wants to play. NY is not his first choice...

[TGO]

Five years for Burnett is absolute folly. I would go to 4/68, maybe 4/72 (but probably not), and that's only if we've done other things to ensure a contender in 2010.

[DrungoHazewood]

Derek Lowe will be 36 years old next June... there is no way he is a better investment vs Burnett, or Sheets... even at the higher expenditure necessary to sign them, and their injury concerns.

Why not? Injury concerns are exactly why I'd concentrate on Lowe. Burnett and Sheets will be more expensive, maybe a lot more, and you have to assume that some percentage of their starts (for Sheets that has to be 1/3 or more) will be covered by pitchers like Brian Burress.

Pitchers don't have a nice and tidy aging curve. They peak at 27 (as a group) more because of a high attrition rate early, more than because the good, healthy ones just drop off 10% or 20% a year once they hit 30. They're not position players.

[Hank Scorpio]

5/75 should land Burnett here as this is where he wants to play. NY is not his first choice...

Five years is too many for Burnett, and I doubt we'll give it to him. That's probably why he won't sign here.

[DrungoHazewood]

5/75 should land Burnett here as this is where he wants to play. NY is not his first choice...

For $10M he could buy a Gulfstream and fly to the estate of his choice anywhere in the country between starts. This idea that he'll give a big hometown discount to play on a 5th-place team is wildly optimistic speculation.

[Sports Guy]

Why not? Injury concerns are exactly why I'd concentrate on Lowe. Burnett and Sheets will be more expensive, maybe a lot more, and you have to assume that some percentage of their starts (for Sheets that has to be 1/3 or more) will be covered by pitchers like Brian Burress.

Pitchers don't have a nice and tidy aging curve. They peak at 27 (as a group) more because of a high attrition rate early, more than because the good, healthy ones just drop off 10% or 20% a year once they hit 30. They're not position players.

Lowe is going to be more expensive than Sheets.

[DrungoHazewood]

Lowe is going to be more expensive than Sheets.

Not on a per-start basis.

[Sports Guy]

Not on a per-start basis.

Lowe will get more years and more money.

[DrungoHazewood]

Lowe will get more years and more money.

And probably make twice as many starts.

[Sports Guy]

And probably make twice as many starts.

I don't want to bet 15-17 million on a 39-41 year old Lowe.

[JTrea81]

Well after re-reading that article there is one big word in there:

The Yankees, according to several industry insiders, spent yesterday preparing an offer - perhaps a five-year deal worth about $80 million - for Toronto righty A.J. Burnett.

They don't know what the offer is, really, but are reporting it as a headline like it is fact. Typical NY Post...

[Sports Guy]

Well after re-reading that article there is one big word in there:

They don't know what the offer is, really, but are reporting it as a headline like it is fact. Typical NY Post...

Doesnt matter...We have known the whole time that someone was going to put 5/75-80 on the table..whether it be the Yankees or someone else.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well after re-reading that article there is one big word in there:

They don't know what the offer is, really, but are reporting it as a headline like it is fact. Typical NY Post...

Well, we know what his established performance is. We know what a WAR in free agency has been worth recently. We can pretty easily come to the conclusion that Burnett is worth in the neighborhood of $15M a year, maybe a little more depending on how you think he'll go going forward. The rest of the baseball world knows this, too.

5/80 is exactly the type of deal everyone should have expected.