Cedric Mullins - 30/30 ?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

I'm sure that came out the wrong way.  I'm sure Moose or SG will point out that you don't actually hope he regresses but that if he does regress that it won't be much and he'll still be a very solid 3.5- 5 player.   

I think some degree of regression is a given.

Does anyone think he's a six win guy going forward?

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think some degree of regression is a given.

Does anyone think he's a six win guy going forward?

I'm not willing to make any proclamations about what he will or won't be moving forward.

All I know is that he's the OD CF.  Whether he's a 3.5-5 win player or a 6+ win player remains to be seen.  I'm inclined to agree that he'll regress a little but the glass could be looked at as half full, too.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm hopeful that he regresses but settles in as a 3.5-5 win player.

I’m hoping he continues to improve and becomes Mike Trout.  However, I’d gladly settle for the type of regression you cite.   Honestly, if he’s over .800 OPS in future seasons, I still consider that a huge win.  

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think some degree of regression is a given.

Does anyone think he's a six win guy going forward?

I don't think it.  I hope it.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think some degree of regression is a given.

Does anyone think he's a six win guy going forward?

 

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I don't think it.  I hope it.

How many guys in all of baseball average 6 wins over, say, a three-year period?   In 2017-19 there were 8: Trout, Betts, Yelich, Rendon, Bregman, Ramirez, Lindor and Judge.  Of those, only Ramirez will reach 6 WAR in 2021.  (I’m using fWAR here because Fangraphs gives you multi-year leaderboards.)   So, it’s super unlikely that Mullins will be a 6-WAR player on any kind of regular basis.   But if he’s an above average player the next 5 years, I’ll be thrilled.  

[Moose Milligan]

How many of us picked Mullins to be a 6 win player this year?

Yes, that's right, none of you.

So it's anyone's guess as to what he'll do next year, too.  

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm holding my breath...seems to good to be true that this change is for real and sustainable.  Even though what Tony's presented over the course of the season points to that...I dunno, it just seems too good to be true.

Even if he does end up being a one year wonder...well, what a year it was.

Been saying that to myself all season and yet his numbers did not drop off at all. Putting together his overall career numbers he has been a 3.7 WAR player. Would that be a fair expectation? 

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Been saying that to myself all season and yet his numbers did not drop off at all. 

He’s been very good in the second half, but not as good as in the first half.  In the first 81 games he had a .941 OPS and was worth 4.0 rWAR.   Since then, with a week to play he’s had an .860 OPS and has been worth 2.1 rWAR.

I’m pretty sure if we had the choice for next year of locking in Mullins at .860 OPS and 4.2 rWAR, vs. taking whatever is behind door no. 2 for him, most of us would elect .860/4.2.   

[Moose Milligan]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He’s been very good in the second half, but not as good as in the first half.  In the first 81 games he had a .941 OPS and was worth 4.0 rWAR.   Since then, with a week to play he’s had an .860 OPS and has been worth 2.1 rWAR.

I’m pretty sure if we had the choice for next year of locking in Mullins at .860 OPS and 4.2 rWAR, vs. taking whatever is behind door no. 2 for him, most of us would elect .860/4.2.   

I think it could also be chalked up to him being tired.  As I said, this is the most he's ever played.  IIRC, it's the most he's ever played at any level.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think it could also be chalked up to him being tired.  As I said, this is the most he's ever played.  IIRC, it's the most he's ever played at any level.

Also it's got to be a grind when you're getting your brains beat in every night by the opposing team. Even a player having a great season is going to get tired of losing 5 times a week. 

[Frobby]

Rex: What kind of player do you think Cedric Mullins settles as going forward?

Kevin Goldstein: 850 OPS

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-9-27-2021/

[Moose Milligan]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Rex: What kind of player do you think Cedric Mullins settles as going forward?

Kevin Goldstein: 850 OPS

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-9-27-2021/

I'm good with that, easily.

[Sports Guy]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Rex: What kind of player do you think Cedric Mullins settles as going forward?

Kevin Goldstein: 850 OPS

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-9-27-2021/

I’ll take the under.

[Il BuonO]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’ll take the under.

Eh, yes. Let’s see if he can repeat it first before sending him off to the hall.

[Il BuonO]

12 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Also it's got to be a grind when you're getting your brains beat in every night by the opposing team. Even a player having a great season is going to get tired of losing 5 times a week. 

Nah. I hear the money is good.