Henderson vs. Mayo at Delmarva

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I would like to see some guys who can play plus defense in the infield.   I don’t think a bunch of solid bats who are just adequate defensively at 2B/3B/SS is a winning formula.   I’m not saying I want a bunch of all defense guys there, I’m saying I want guys who do both well.   And I think the jury is still out on Westburg/Henderson/Mayo on that score.   

As you know, there is no ONE winning formula. Does adequate mean average or below average.  I'll settle for either if the offense is so good that overall they are above average players at their positions. 

[Tony-OH]

21 hours ago, LookinUp said:

As of this minute I'd go:

3) Mayo, 4) Cowser, 5) Hall, 6) Henderson, 7) Westburg (or other)

I'll take Mayo's power over Cowser's approach, though I love both. Also take Hall's risk at his level over Gunnar's. I know batting average isn't a great stat, but his OPS is actually not the problem in my eyes. He's just not making a ton of contact. The power's there when he does, but I'm hoping for a significant jump in BA next year in addition to a more reliable glove, which I think will happen.

I really like Westburg, but am just not sure where in the 8-10 range I'd put him. Mostly out of my own ignorance of the guys also close to that spot.

 

It's fair to go with Mayo over Cowser due to the upside, but there's still more risk in Mayo so that's a close call. I haven't made up my mind yet but it's a nice problem to have.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

As you know, there is no ONE winning formula. Does adequate mean average or below average.  I'll settle for either if the offense is so good that overall they are above average players at their positions. 

Yes, I’m aware there’s no one winning formula, and I’ve made that point many, many times.   But I think if you had passable but below average defenders at all of 2B, SS and 3B, you’d really have to hit the snot out of the ball to make up for it.  And as a longtime fan of this particular team, we’ve never had a playoff team that wasn’t pretty strong in the infield, at least at 1-2 of the 3 spots.   I’m sure if I sniffed around I could find some other organization that had playoff teams that were relatively weak at all three, but they’re pretty few and far between in my opinion.  

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yes, I’m aware there’s no one winning formula, and I’ve made that point many, many times.   But I think if you had passable but below average defenders at all of 2B, SS and 3B, you’d really have to hit the snot out of the ball to make up for it.  And as a longtime fan of this particular team, we’ve never had a playoff team that wasn’t pretty strong in the infield, at least at 1-2 of the 3 spots.   I’m sure if I sniffed around I could find some other organization that had playoff teams that were relatively weak at all three, but they’re pretty few and far between in my opinion.  

I bet the Ron Cey, Bill Russell, Davey Lopes infield was not all that great defensively.  First one that popped into my head.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I bet the Ron Cey, Bill Russell, Davey Lopes infield was not all that great defensively.  First one that popped into my head.

Well, I don’t know about every defensive metric, but by Rfield (which feeds into rWAR), Cey was +64 while with the Dodgers, Lopes -27, Russell +72.  (Rtot is the same thing as Rfield.)   So, not bad at all.   

[JustLearning]

On 9/13/2021 at 10:25 AM, RZNJ said:

Back on subject. I check the minors boxscores everyday and it's my impression that Henderson has really cut down on his errors lately at both 3rd and SS.

Except he made an error in his AA debut. 

[Frobby]

On 9/12/2021 at 9:38 PM, Tony-OH said:

I've been very impressed overall. As I said on Bob and Vinnie, he's first 19 year I've watched play in the Orioles system since Manny Machado that looks special.

Do you mean 19-year old hitter?  Because Grayson looked awfully good at 19 (and better at 21).    And Bundy at 19 looked amazing.  
Also, not to detract from your point, but today Mayo is about two weeks older than Manny was when he made his major league debut.   So he may be the most special hitter we’ve had since Manny, but he’s still not nearly as special as Manny was, IMO.   Maybe if you only looked at the bat, he could be comparable.  

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Do you mean 19-year old hitter?  Because Grayson looked awfully good at 19 (and better at 21).    And Bundy at 19 looked amazing.  
Also, not to detract from your point, but today Mayo is about two weeks older than Manny was when he made his major league debut.   So he may be the most special hitter we’ve had since Manny, but he’s still not nearly as special as Manny was, IMO.   Maybe if you only looked at the bat, he could be comparable.  

You are on quite a roll today. I was talking hitter and no point did I say Mayo was next Machado. Saying that, Machado didn't miss a whole year because of COVID so comparing them age wise is not really fair. Machado was also major league ready defensively. I'm not even sure why you came up with this one other than you are bored.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

You are on quite a roll today. I was talking hitter and no point did I say Mayo was next Machado. Saying that, Machado didn't miss a whole year because of COVID so comparing them age wise is not really fair. Machado was also major league ready defensively. I'm not even sure why you came up with this one other than you are bored.

Yes, bored.   But did want to confirm you weren’t including pitchers.   

So when you say “special,” how good do you think he could be?   Probably our best HS hitting prospect since Manny who has reached the majors is Mountcastle, right?   So how much better than Mountcastle?
 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, bored.   But did want to confirm you weren’t including pitchers.   

So when you say “special,” how good do you think he could be?   Probably our best HS hitting prospect since Manny who has reached the majors is Mountcastle, right?   So how much better than Mountcastle?
 

Well let's look at their numbers in Delmarva at 19 years old. Grant it Coby only had 125 PAs vs Mountcastle's entire season of 489 PAs, but let's look at the numbers:

Player Name      BB%    K%      wOBA   wRC+    ISO    OPS

Mountcastle      5.1%   19.4%   .336     112        .145    .745
Mayo                12.8%  20.8%   .438     159       .236   .963

Mountcastle also had 199 professional PAs at 18 when Mayo had none. So I'd say Mayo has a good chance of being better than Mountcastle if his development continues on schedule.

[RZNJ]

I would like to chime in!    It's more than just numbers.   This kid had a look when he was batting.   Big dude, huge hip rotation.  He just looks like something special.   He might not make it but he's got the look.

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well let's look at their numbers in Delmarva at 19 years old. Grant it Coby only had 125 PAs vs Mountcastle's entire season of 489 PAs, but let's look at the numbers:

Player Name      BB%    K%      wOBA   wRC+    ISO    OPS

Mountcastle      5.1%   19.4%   .336     112        .145    .745
Mayo                12.8%  20.8%   .438     159       .236   .963

Mountcastle also had 199 professional PAs at 18 when Mayo had none. So I'd say Mayo has a good chance of being better than Mountcastle if his development continues on schedule.

Interesting to note that Mountcastle’s 112 wRC+ at Delmarva matches his wRC+ in the majors so far.   I’d accept 159 from Mayo!

[Just Regular]

Okay, I'll play.   Lanky slugging 3B scale of 0 to 10 where young Kris Bryant is 10....is Coby Mayo...75% of that?

NCAA Bryant went 1.080/1.150/1.310 at 19/20/21.

[Paul in Virginia]

Not sure this has been posted anywhere here yet (apologies if it has):

 

Fact: One name that didn’t appear on the BA top 100 is Coby Mayo. Mayo had a .981 OPS in Delmarva last year. He has a cannon arm, huge power and will take a walk. He will strikeout but he also has a high exit velocity and still hit for a good average.

Opinion: There is some talk that his lack of agility may prevent him from staying at third base, but that is to be determined. That being said, I have him as the O’s third best prospect. His upside is huge and if he can stay at third, he may have the highest upside of anyone in the organization, including Adley. I think he is a top 75 prospect by midseason.

 

Baltimore Orioles: Fact/Opinion - O's Should Move Mullins if Price is Right (eutawstreetreport.com)

Edited January 21, 2022 by Paul in Virginia

[sevastras]

On 1/20/2022 at 4:36 PM, Frobby said:

Do you mean 19-year old hitter?  Because Grayson looked awfully good at 19 (and better at 21).    And Bundy at 19 looked amazing.  
Also, not to detract from your point, but today Mayo is about two weeks older than Manny was when he made his major league debut.   So he may be the most special hitter we’ve had since Manny, but he’s still not nearly as special as Manny was, IMO.   Maybe if you only looked at the bat, he could be comparable.  

Bundy was amazing. I still think about how good he could have been if he didn’t have those injuries. 
Weird side note, I met someone the other day who questioned if I was an Os fan. I was wearing an Oriole hat and live in the west not on the coast. Once I confirmed, he informed me that his friend was a strength and conditioning coach with them a while back and was close with Brady Anderson. The conversation fizzled out when I said it was probably his friend that was doing strength and conditioning about the same time there was a lot of problems with core injuries and forearm tightness. 
Back to the topic. Manny was clearly ready and was seen as someone who could come up and help when the club needed a boost. Mayo hasn’t been on my radar the same way as a Machado, Harper, Griffey, Tatis, Vlad Jr. Is he that far under the radar and will explode onto everyone’s radar next year or just a year behind because of the lack of a 2020 MiLB season(which shouldn’t have really effected him that much)?