Proposal: O's spend 40m in FA

[OrangeTurtle]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Can they afford to have a catcher who sucks at pitch framing, blocking pitches and making catch and tag plays?

I don’t think the O’s will be a winning team next year in any event.   Hopefully they’ll make some moves to be a lot better than last year.   Upgrading to Rutschman is a big part of that.   I’d prefer that the backup be someone who’s worked with some good pitching staffs who can work with Rutschman to try to guide our staff along.   Severino doesn’t fit that mold, and he’s expensive to boot.   I don’t see him being the choice.  

100% this. Frankly, I'm OUT on Severino and you can get a guy like Yan Gomes to provide a veteran presence/mentor to Adley while playing good defense for very cheap. He only makes $5MM this year. Get Gomes or a Suzuki on a 2 year deal or something. Ideally you want cheaper than that, but we aren't contenders next year anyway, so who cares?

Nothing is more destructive to a young SP than passed balls and shoddy framing, IMO.

[wildcard]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, Boston is paying half of his contract and you likely can get the Dodgers to eat more.

Secondly, you are taking this Tampa model stuff wrong.  The Orioles aren't going to run their team like they can only have a 60M budget.  The Tampa model refers to the idea of being able to have a strong system, build through that, etc....but the Os can do that and spend a lot more money.

Now, that being said...as I said, I can see the Os doing what you are saying there.  It just doesn't accomplish what you are talking about.  You talk about not wasting those years but yet your plan is to sign mediocrity.  That doesn't help accomplish your goal unless your definition of "not wasting those years" is different than mine and most of the rest of the fan base.

And please stop with the Elias can find bs....Elias has no say in this.  If better teams want to sign players, the Os have to go above those teams.  So, this isn't something in his hands in a lot of ways.  

BTW, you keep saying its negative BS.  Tell me where I am wrong.

The O's may spend more than Tampa but the long term contracts are about risk and O's ownership and Elias has not shown they will take on a high amount of risk.   Indications are that will follow Tampa in signing one or two year contracts in acquiring players.   

In 2012 Duquette and Showater boosted the pitching staff by signing Chen, Gonzalez, O'Day and Ayala, trading Guthrie for Hammel and Strop.  The largest contract was 3/11m to Chen.   

Their pitching staff improved for 14th with a 4.89 ERA in 2011 to 6th with a 3.90 ERA in 2012. The O's won the Wild Card. It can be done.  Elias just has to be committed to win in 2022  and know what he is doing.

[OrangeTurtle]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I just do see OPACY and the ALE with the O's as being what pitchers are looking for in terms of a pillow contract...unless the have no other options and at that point, do we even want those guys?  

I would certainly like to add Thor but I would think we would have to give him a contract that is likely to risky and not appealing.

Yeah, that's definitely the problem with SP and 1 year "build value" contracts. We likely aren't the destination for that. Not sure I'm into giving Thor 2+ years at what we'd have to pay.. a ton of risk there.

You're right that that's likely not happening.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, wildcard said:

The O's may spend more than Tampa but the long term contracts are about risk and O's ownership and Elias has not shown they will take on a high amount of risk.   Indications are that will follow Tampa in signing one or two year contracts in acquiring players.   

In 2012 Duquette and Showater boosted the pitching staff by signing Chen, Gonzalez, O'Day and Ayala, trading Guthrie for Hammel and Strop.  The largest contract was 3/11m to Chen.   

Their pitching staff improved for 14th with a 4.89 ERA in 2011 to 6th with a 3.90 ERA in 2012. The O's won the Wild Card. It can be done.  Elias just has to be committed to win in 2022  and know what he is doing.

Plus ownership has to be committed too and allow Elias to spend the money. Now is this time to start investing money into the roster. 

[wildcard]

52 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

To me if you are building a foundation for future success this offseason you have to take into account the realities of the market, the available options, and see who can be added to help in the next four years.  That may mean you are adding less players, and at higher contracts.

For me those players are one of the high level to elite infielders.  I would target Baez personally and I would be prepared to give him a 3-4 deal at $22-24 AAV.  That is in line with market value and would allow him an age 31-32 contract.

You have to address the realities of the Orioles pitching situation.  In the next few years you are going to have to add significant pitching to the organization to not waste the first three years of those players.  The pitching coming up can't be counted on to fill out a rotation, they more need to supplement it. Realiatically that means in the next 4 years you are committing $30-40 AAV to pitching.  Maybe that's taking some chances or investing more in a know quantity.

For the rest of the roster.  Elias is going to have to be better at bringing in impactful bargain players, better at preparing prospects, and build out the roster less on waiver wire cast offs.  The Orioles need some happy surprises, no team - especially not a mid market team - succeeds without happening upon some serious unexpected production.

I see no indication that the O's will sign 3 and 4 year contract for 22-24 per year.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's may spend more than Tampa but the long term contracts are about risk and O's ownership and Elias has not shown they will take on a high amount of risk.   Indications are that will follow Tampa in signing one or two year contracts in acquiring players.   

In 2012 Duquette and Showater boosted the pitching staff by signing Chen, Gonzalez, O'Day and Ayala, trading Guthrie for Hammel and Strop.  The largest contract was 3/11m to Chen.   

Their pitching staff improved for 14th with a 4.89 ERA in 2011 to 6th with a 3.90 ERA in 2012. The O's won the Wild Card. It can be done.  Elias just has to be committed to win in 2022  and know what he is doing.

Correct...but I don't know this matters right now.  They haven't tried to win.  Their goal has been to lose, so of course they aren't spending.

Now, will that change?  We don't know.  I have said it several times recently but the unknown of ownership commitment is huge.  

Let me put it this way...its very likely that if the ownership isn't going to commit, that we aren't doing anything anyway.

 

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I see no indication that the O's will sign 3 and 4 year contract for 22-24 per year.

Elias made some comments recently hinting at a payroll increase next year. Of course the quotes were noncommital and details sketchy. I agree 22-24 is probably higher than they would go but I could see 12-15. 

[wildcard]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Can they afford to have a catcher who sucks at pitch framing, blocking pitches and making catch and tag plays?

I don’t think the O’s will be a winning team next year in any event.   Hopefully they’ll make some moves to be a lot better than last year.   Upgrading to Rutschman is a big part of that.   I’d prefer that the backup be someone who’s worked with some good pitching staffs who can work with Rutschman to try to guide our staff along.   Severino doesn’t fit that mold, and he’s expensive to boot.   I don’t see him being the choice.  

OK then who?

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

Agree on not spending on FA relievers, pretty much ever, except for a situation where you need 1 last piece to get over the top (legitimate WS contender). We have enough #4/#5 SP types where their stuff could play up in shorter stints. Big fan of converting failed starters to relievers, and I'm just not on board with relievers soaking up payroll.

If I have $40MM to add, I'd much rather the Orioles commit $25-33MM to one of the premier SS options like Correa/Story (and this would even include a 1 year pillow contract to someone like Story trying to go for FA the following year)

+ explore extending Means for 2-3 years buying out ARB because after the crackdown on foreign substances, and his fondness for the team, he might be willing to bet less on himself for added security.

+ look at adding another SP or two on 1 year deals in the Harvey style to eat innings + act as a mentor to some of the younger SP coming up.

+ look at locking up Adley on a Longoria type deal (depending on framework of new CBA).

Basically, I'm more in line with Studs + Duds approach than 5 mediocre guys eating up 40MM. The core of our "contending team" in a few years SHOULD be extremely cheap. 

The team will not improve much if the relievers are not addressed this off season.  The O's have to find relievers that can get outs without allowing a bunch of runs.   The current group needs to be supplemented for that to happen.

[OrangeTurtle]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

OK then who?

Not Frobby, but guys like Gomes, Suzuki, and Vogt are all FAs that are still playing + Defense (Suzuki, not so much, but still has in the past and has worked with playoff staffs) and can be had for $5MM or less. Vogt makes like $3, Gomes makes like $5, and Suzuki makes like $1.5 (although his defense has declined and he's likely to retire).

[Sports Guy]

I don’t have an issue signing a reliever..but a legit impact guy with a History of being good.

Or if there is an ODay type guy out there..IE one that has always been good when healthy, that’s fine too.  When we signed ODay, he was coming off some health issues and got overlooked because of it.  However, when he was healthy, he pitched well during his career before we signed him.

[OrangeTurtle]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The team will not improve much if the relievers are not addressed this off season.  The O's have to find relievers that can get outs without allowing a bunch of runs.   The current group needs to be supplemented for that to happen.

Okay, but there's volatility with relievers. Why spend for those when you can use our AAA/AAAA guys or Rule 5 picks? 

I understand your premise is to try and be competitive next year, but I just don't see that happening with only 40MM to spend total, especially when you're devoting those finite resources on the bullpen over other, more important areas that need upgrades.

If you have to give relievers 2 year deals and you're more likely to contend year 2, the risk is greater that they turn into pumpkins year 2 vs. Year 1, when, that second year is more of a "let's contend" year.

[OrangeTurtle]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t have an issue signing a reliever..but a legit impact guy with a History of being good.

Or if there is an ODay type guy out there..IE one that has always been good when healthy, that’s fine too.  When we signed ODay, he was coming off some health issues and got overlooked because of it.  However, when he was healthy, he pitched well during his career before we signed him.

You mean like Brad Hand? Oh, wait.. 

I trust our regime and scouts to help mitigate situations where you're buying a "sure thing" and then they fall off the face of the earth, but why waste money at all when we arent WS contenders the next 2 years?

You can improve the club with an aim to respectability in the coming years in more economical ways with respect to risk, IMO.

We have a TON of guys in AA/AAA that have ceiling of #4/#5 starters. Clubs don't trade for those guys. You get the best value by converting them to relievers and hope they can be valuable members to your 26, without putting them on the bump every 5th day and praying for the best.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Re: relievers, who cares as long as they're one year deals? In the past the O's have made terrible reliever FA signings because they were for like 3 years. In the baseball world, money is kind of meaningless in a single year, at least that's how I think of it. It's locking yourself up for multiple years that's dangerous. 

I tend to agree this team needs some adults in the middle of the bullpen. Guys like Sulser who are at least reliable in there. Now I'm not sure about $7 million - I think we can find a couple decent pieces for less than that. Under the radar guys. 

I hope so.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep…Stars and scrubs is the way to go.

Like the Angels.