Proposal: O's spend 40m in FA

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Exactly this. Does not have to be all or nothing, go to $250M or waste Rutschman. See what Elias can do with a $70M payroll, invest in a starting pitcher or two who could help us, otherwise fill holes with veterans. If it looks like we are more competitive then take the next step. 

The one difference I have from OP is the guys you list will probably take 4+ years. I think that would be a wise investment with our lack of pitching depth and good timing with our rebuild. If it turns out the rebuild fizzles, a good pitcher with several years remaining could be flipped.

I'd rather prioritize one good pitcher on a 4-5 year deal versus paying Pedro and additional bullpen arms. 

I think there are two different things here.  1)What we would like and 2) what the O's will do.

I just don't see ownership or Elias signing a 4 or 5 year contract for any acquisition.   I think Elias has been pretty clear about that when he talks about know we the O's are and how they have to go about winning.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

The one thing I think everyone agrees on is that there needs to be investment in the ML roster and I too like the idea of not wasting time as our young talent begins arriving. 
 

It is difficult to understate how much better this team would look with even average pitching.  Even before Adley and Grayson arrive. 
 

I do not think it would be wise to trade our depth for someone like Price for one year. that.  I just don’t think trading even long shots with 6 years of value are worth one year of Price.  Regardless of how much salary is paid by someone else. 
 

I think someone like Stroman is a different bird. He is exactly the kind of guy that is worth chatting with on a longer term deal. 
 

I love the idea of going after one of the high end middle infielders. 
 

If the Os are willing to spend 20-60 mil there are good deals to be had. Even if Elias has to overpay. 
 

I think the idea of trading Mullins, Means or Mancini is viable but I think our high price tag leaves Mancini over priced. 
 

I think Severino will not be an Oriole in the future. 
 

But it is time to invest in the club at the ML level. I remain cautiously optimistic. 

I agree Severino is not a long term Oriole.  But maybe one more year.

[OrangeTurtle]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I think there are two different things here.  1)What we would like and 2) what the O's will do.

I just don't see ownership or Elias signing a 4 or 5 year contract for any acquisition.   I think Elias has been pretty clear about that when he talks about know we the O's are and how they have to go about winning.

If Elias has stated he won't sign any FA for 4+ years (can you point to a quote?), then we're in huge trouble.

I think you're misinterpreting such a statement.. They don't want to sign a premier FA and "miss", but if you sign one and they perform through years 1-3, you can then flip them on the back end of the contract when they get more expensive for more payroll flexibility. Constantly churning, like the Rays.

Also, the Angels studs + duds approach is very different than what I'm suggesting. The Angels never had a huge core of homegrown talent to go along with Trout. At least until recently with Marsh + Adell, their farm has been very meh, and thus, they went to FA to supplement (also Moreno has a willingness to spend).

Two completley different approaches. The Os should go Studs + Duds, in my opinion, because you have the core of the club, or what we hope to be the core of the club, on Rookie contracts making pennies. Those guys fill the spots of your $8-10MM relievers and COF vet types, which allows, via payroll flexibility, for you to go get your stars at higher average AAV.

 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, OrangeTurtle said:

100% this. Frankly, I'm OUT on Severino and you can get a guy like Yan Gomes to provide a veteran presence/mentor to Adley while playing good defense for very cheap. He only makes $5MM this year. Get Gomes or a Suzuki on a 2 year deal or something. Ideally you want cheaper than that, but we aren't contenders next year anyway, so who cares?

Nothing is more destructive to a young SP than passed balls and shoddy framing, IMO.

So you would spend 5m on a backup catcher.   Suzuki will be 38 next season.  No thanks.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Correct...but I don't know this matters right now.  They haven't tried to win.  Their goal has been to lose, so of course they aren't spending.

Now, will that change?  We don't know.  I have said it several times recently but the unknown of ownership commitment is huge.  

Let me put it this way...its very likely that if the ownership isn't going to commit, that we aren't doing anything anyway.

 

There is difference between spending and spending on high risk long term contracts.

[OrangeTurtle]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

So you would spend 5m on a backup catcher.   Suzuki will be 38 next season.  No thanks.

I think Suzuki might retire or has already said so, and I even said he only makes $1.5 this year in a follow-up post.

Despite that, I don't WANT us to spend $5MM on a backup catcher next year, but I was playing along with the OP premise and Frobby's post. In which, I'd rather do that to help ease in Adley + provide solid D for some of our younger SP coming up next year as opposed to spending the same amount on relievers that add nothing meaningful next year and could be DFA'd by August. That's my opinion though.

[OrangeTurtle]

If you want to try to appear like a respectable club next year, you could do a lot worse than signing a Vogt/Gomes as a starter until Adley comes up and to provide a vet defensive presence vs. trotting Severino out there night after night with super negative framing and defense.

Next year doesn't matter.

[wildcard]

57 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

Okay, but there's volatility with relievers. Why spend for those when you can use our AAA/AAAA guys or Rule 5 picks? 

I understand your premise is to try and be competitive next year, but I just don't see that happening with only 40MM to spend total, especially when you're devoting those finite resources on the bullpen over other, more important areas that need upgrades.

If you have to give relievers 2 year deals and you're more likely to contend year 2, the risk is greater that they turn into pumpkins year 2 vs. Year 1, when, that second year is more of a "let's contend" year.

One year deals of relievers.

[7Mo]

7 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

If you want to try to appear like a respectable club next year, you could do a lot worse than signing a Vogt/Gomes as a starter until Adley comes up and to provide a vet defensive presence vs. trotting Severino out there night after night with super negative framing and defense.

Next year doesn't matter.

I hope next year matters in terms of Rutsch and a veteran defensive catcher helping the young pitching staff start to find their way. To me, that could make a much bigger difference than a backup catcher getting 1-2 more hits a month. 

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

If Elias has stated he won't sign any FA for 4+ years (can you point to a quote?), then we're in huge trouble.

I think you're misinterpreting such a statement.. They don't want to sign a premier FA and "miss", but if you sign one and they perform through years 1-3, you can then flip them on the back end of the contract when they get more expensive for more payroll flexibility. Constantly churning, like the Rays.

Also, the Angels studs + duds approach is very different than what I'm suggesting. The Angels never had a huge core of homegrown talent to go along with Trout. At least until recently with Marsh + Adell, their farm has been very meh, and thus, they went to FA to supplement (also Moreno has a willingness to spend).

Two completley different approaches. The Os should go Studs + Duds, in my opinion, because you have the core of the club, or what we hope to be the core of the club, on Rookie contracts making pennies. Those guys fill the spots of your $8-10MM relievers and COF vet types, which allows, via payroll flexibility, for you to go get your stars at higher average AAV.

 

1) I don't want any Duds on the team

2) I am not proposing any 8-10m relievers.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

14 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

I think Suzuki might retire or has already said so, and I even said he only makes $1.5 this year in a follow-up post.

Despite that, I don't WANT us to spend $5MM on a backup catcher next year, but I was playing along with the OP premise and Frobby's post. In which, I'd rather do that to help ease in Adley + provide solid D for some of our younger SP coming up next year as opposed to spending the same amount on relievers that add nothing meaningful next year and could be DFA'd by August. That's my opinion though.

Also there's no way the Orioles spend $3M on Severino either to get through the first month and a half of 2022. Severino could come back, but it would be after getting non-tendered and signing a one year deal for about $1M to $1.5M. 

I think next years backup catcher to AR isn't currently in the Orioles system. 

[OrangeTurtle]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

One year deals of relievers.

Name some relievers that you'd sign on a 1 year deal for next year and what you think they'd sign for, please.

SG brought up an O'Day caliber guy, with a track record, which is fine. But guys of that quality go for $10MM+. Brad Hand, for example, averaged like 1.5 fWAR over the past 4 years or whatever and signed a 1 year deal this past offseason for $10.5. He currently has a -.2 fWAR this year.

I just personally don't see what you're accomplishing by signing guys of that ilk or slightly worse at like $7MM on a 1 year deal when, at our VERY BEST, we might be a WC contender next year. At our best. Give those innings to our own farmhands to see what they got moving into 2023.

 

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

If you want to try to appear like a respectable club next year, you could do a lot worse than signing a Vogt/Gomes as a starter until Adley comes up and to provide a vet defensive presence vs. trotting Severino out there night after night with super negative framing and defense.

Next year doesn't matter.

I think next year does matter.    

Vogt is not known a good defensive catcher and he will be 37,

I would not pay 5m for Gomez to be a backup catcher and its inconsistent for you to if you think next year does not matter.

[OrangeTurtle]

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Also there's no way the Orioles spend $3M on Severino either to get through the first month and a half of 2022. Severino could come back, but it would be after getting non-tendered and signing a one year deal for about $1M to $1.5M. 

I think next years backup catcher to AR isn't currently in the Orioles system. 

Exactly. But if the guy isn't in our system currently, to get someone that isnt total garbage, the going rate is probably going to be around 3M. There are far better options at that price point than Severino.

 

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I hope next year matters in terms of Rutsch and a veteran defensive catcher helping the young pitching staff start to find their way. To me, that could make a much bigger difference than a backup catcher getting 1-2 more hits a month. 

So who is your backup catcher?