Rutschman: Let’s Make a Deal

[sportsfan8703]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh, I thought you were speculating on if the O's had signed Hays to that deal. 

That's something I thought was actually interesting.

Yea, I'm sure the Kingery deal is behind the Phillies woes. 

If I wanted to bring up a deal in which a guy that has never played MLB got a long term contract I'd go with Rusney Castillo.

I always think of Jonathan Singleton from the Astros. Was Elias there in 2014 when they gave him that deal before his MLB debut?  
 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/singljo02.shtml

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The advantage would be in having the cost locked in.  Now you can saw that isn't enough of an advantage but it is something. 

Yea I don’t think that advantage outweighs injury risk though.

The advantage of getting 1-2 FA years locked in does imo but otherwise, no.

Now, I will say that if they can sign him for a lot less than I think for those 6 years, that is something to consider BUT I don’t see that happening.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I always think of Jonathan Singleton from the Astros. Was Elias there in 2014 when they gave him that deal before his MLB debut?  
 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/singljo02.shtml

He was director of scouting in 2014.  He wouldn't have had anything to do with that deal.

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2014/2/26/5448746/across-the-board-an-interview-with-mike-elias-the-houston-astros

[Aristotelian]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

$27 mm would be more than all but two catchers in the history of baseball got in their pre-FA years.   And those two weren’t guaranteed anything when they started their careers.   

Well, I tried.    To me it was a pretty fair proposal that had benefits for both sides.   But I’m not reading a lot of enthusiasm from anyone here and I don’t see anyone else suggesting an alternative other than going year by year for now.
 

Nice try! That said, I don't really see the benefit for him. He'd be handing over control of his prime free agency years and taking a huge risk of missing his opportunity for a $200M type of contract to guarantee the $26M. I don't see him passing that up without more guaranteed dollars. 

What about a $20M buyout instead of the vesting player options? Would $46M be enough to get him to say yes and do the Orioles do that? 

[Ruzious]

Signing a long-term contract will pretty much guarantee Adley would spend almost all of his best years in Baltimore.  I kinda doubt he wants to force himself into that position, and I doubt the O's would offer enough to change his mind.  Also, I can't imagine he'd agree to a contract with the O's that has team options.  

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

So I guess its you vs Elias on Willems.   Elias spent 1M on the eighth rounder.  He has had 28 PA in rookie ball.  Hardly enough to say Elias is right or wrong.

Elias isn’t wrong, you are.   Because you believe that Elias thinks that Willems more likely than not can be a starting major league catcher someday.   Unlike you, Elias knows that the odds are against that happening.   Elias also knows that the odds that Willems will ever be anywhere near as good as Rutschman are extremely small.   That’s not to say that Elias doesn’t think that Willems is worth the $1 mm bonus he was paid.   It’s just that a player of that ilk isn’t that likely to become an impact major league player.   

$1 mm is about the slot value of the 66th pick in the draft.   Do you know how many 66th picks have been worth, say, 10 rWAR in their career?    Three, out of 57 guys picked 66th.   A grand total of seven have been worth 1 rWAR or more.   That shows you that the odds of Willems being an impact player are small.   

Obviously, some guys beat those odds.   And if a GM thinks his organization is good at drafting, that GM might think he/she has better odds than the average GM.   But nobody’s that much better.   

In short, I don’t think Elias is a wishful thinker or blindly optimistic.   Willems is a guy he hopes pans out, but he’s not even remotely counting on that when making his plans for Rutschman.


 

[Just Regular]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I would look at the Brewers David Stearns as a model.    Hired out of the Astros in 2015 as GM he has been promoted to President  of Baseball Operations and is still with the mid market Brewers.

I know Elias has to pay lip service to the Rays in division, but he is another branch of the HOU/Luhnow tree following Stearns.   I feel BAL is more like MIL than TB, such that I think it will be in his toolkit to occasionally sign Lorenzo Cain and trade for Christian Yelich every once in a blue moon, or 48-hour period.   I'm less sure if he'll be able to extend Christian Yelich.

The other Brewers thing I suspect may apply to Grayson is that Burnes/Woodruff are winding down excellent years with only just TWO starts apiece on four days rest.   I read recently 2021 has been the first year the number of SP turns going on 5 days of rest caught up to 4 days of rest.

If Milestone1 is Adley/Grayson getting on the field, Grayson starting a game on four days rest is another one I'm curious to see if/when it ever happens.   I suspect not until the long term probability of Orioles making postseason odds argue for it.   I feel like Grayson could be just a few bumpy AAA turns away from flirting with retaining eligibility for 2023 prospect lists.   2010 Strasburg was 11 minor league turns.

 

[wildcard]

Elias paid Willems like a early 3rd round pick.  That shows he has some confidence that he will make the majors.   Are the odd against him.  Sure has much as any 3rd round pick.  

But 20 some at bat in rookie ball does not define him.  

I think Elias will build the O's organization to not depend on Adley being an Oriole after 5 years.  He will draft and trade with that in mind is my guess.  Willems is just one attempt to be ready  if  that  happens.

I do not believe that Elias' approach will be to sign Adley to a long term 200+m contract which is what would be required to sign him for 10 years.  That  would not be the Tampa approach which I believe Elias is following.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

Elias paid Willems like a early 3rd round pick.  That shows he has some confidence that he will make the majors.   Are the odd against him.  Sure has much as any 3rd round pick.  

But 20 some at bat in rookie ball does not define him.  

I think Elias will build the O's organization to not depend on Adley being an Oriole after 5 years.  He will draft and trade with that in mind is my guess.  Willems is just one attempt to be ready  if  that  happens.

I do not believe that Elias' approach will be to sign Adley to a long term 200+m contract which is what would be required to sign him for 10 years.  That  would not be the Tampa approach which I believe Elias is following.

You don't plan around third round picks being your starter in five seasons.

 

Haven't you said before that the O's are following the Astros' model? 

If so, which is it?

If you think they are going to combine the two and trade for key pieces while keeping payroll down I'm not sure how that's going to work.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias paid Willems like a early 3rd round pick.  That shows he has some confidence that he will make the majors.   Are the odd against him.  Sure has much as any 3rd round pick.  

But 20 some at bat in rookie ball does not define him.  

I think Elias will build the O's organization to not depend on Adley being an Oriole after 5 years.  He will draft and trade with that in mind is my guess.  Willems is just one attempt to be ready  if  that  happens.

I do not believe that Elias' approach will be to sign Adley to a long term 200+m contract which is what would be required to sign him for 10 years.  That  would not be the Tampa approach which I believe Elias is following.

Have you ever seen the stats on what the career WAR you get from players in the rounds outside of R1?

And again, you are taking this Tampa model stuff too far.  I don’t think you get what he was saying when he said that.  

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I know Elias has to pay lip service to the Rays in division, but he is another branch of the HOU/Luhnow tree following Stearns.   I feel BAL is more like MIL than TB, such that I think it will be in his toolkit to occasionally sign Lorenzo Cain and trade for Christian Yelich every once in a blue moon, or 48-hour period.   I'm less sure if he'll be able to extend Christian Yelich.

The other Brewers thing I suspect may apply to Grayson is that Burnes/Woodruff are winding down excellent years with only just TWO starts apiece on four days rest.   I read recently 2021 has been the first year the number of SP turns going on 5 days of rest caught up to 4 days of rest.

If Milestone1 is Adley/Grayson getting on the field, Grayson starting a game on four days rest is another one I'm curious to see if/when it ever happens.   I suspect not until the long term probability of Orioles making postseason odds argue for it.   I feel like Grayson could be just a few bumpy AAA turns away from flirting with retaining eligibility for 2023 prospect lists.   2010 Strasburg was 11 minor league turns.

 

Do you think Yelich will spend on 9 years of his contact as a Brewer?

[Moose Milligan]

I'd like it if the Orioles did something to lock him up.

I'm not going to speculate on the years/dollar amount, that's really anyone's guess.  But someone who's headed into his age 24 season would be foolish not to take a substantial (again, anyone's guess as to what that is) deal that could make him financially secure for life (he already should be, but still) before playing a single major league game.  

I'm not interested in doing that for just anyone...but the #1 prospect in the sport, certainly.  I don't care that he's a catcher, he'll most likely be moving to first base at some point anyway.  Plus the way that sports medicine and treatment is these days, he might be able to catch longer than we're expecting.  Who knows.

This is a franchise that can spend money.  I don't think they can spend like the Sox/Yankees can year in, year out..but they've shown they can spend 140-160 before.  They need to do what they can to lock up good talent so it doesn't reach FA...and if it does reach FA, they've already spent their best years here.  

 

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't plan around third round picks being your starter in five seasons.

 

Haven't you said before that the O's are following the Astros' model? 

If so, which is it?

If you think they are going to combine the two and trade for key pieces while keeping payroll down I'm not sure how that's going to work.

The tear down was like the Astros but the build sounds more like Tampa.

The Astros model probably does not fit the O's as well as the Tampa model because of market size and the ability to support at large payroll for years.  Elias has been talking about being transactional which sounds to me like the Tampa approach.

 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think Yelich will spend on 9 years of his contact as a Brewer?

Ryan Braun spent his entire 14 year career with them.

 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Elias paid Willems like a early 3rd round pick.  That shows he has some confidence that he will make the majors.   Are the odd against him.  Sure has much as any 3rd round pick.  

But 20 some at bat in rookie ball does not define him.  

I think Elias will build the O's organization to not depend on Adley being an Oriole after 5 years.  He will draft and trade with that in mind is my guess.  Willems is just one attempt to be ready  if  that  happens.

I do not believe that Elias' approach will be to sign Adley to a long term 200+m contract which is what would be required to sign him for 10 years.  That  would not be the Tampa approach which I believe Elias is following.

Just to be clear, (1) I agree Willems’ 20 PA in low A don’t define him, and (2) I don’t think it’s very likely that Elias will seek to sign Rutschman long term this offseason.   I just designed a proposal to get people’s reactions.  

That said, I look at Tampa, and they often signed players to contracts into their FA years when they were young.   Longoria, Baldelli, Archer, Shields, Kiermeier, Lowe and Snell, for example.   So I don’t understand why you’re saying the Tampa model precludes long term contracts.   Tampa’s MO is to try to lock up guys early for a couple of FA option years, then trade those players if/when the options become valuable.   

Brandon Lowe is a good example.   He played a partial season in 2018, then Tampa signed him for 6/$24 mm with two team options at $10.5 mm and $11.5 mm in his first two FA years (2025-26).    My Rutschman proposal is a bit more generous to the player than what Lowe got, but Rutschman is a higher level prospect than Lowe was.