Rooting for Arizona?

[Malike]

I'm glad the D'backs played hard in the last game of the season and didn't mail it in. Was nice to see both they and the O's playing to win and not tanking for the pick. Glad we got it, though.

[Robh21223]

19 minutes ago, Malike said:

I'm glad the D'backs played hard in the last game of the season and didn't mail it in. Was nice to see both they and the O's playing to win and not tanking for the pick. Glad we got it, though.

They are saying that HR cost Arizona 20 million, the difference in value between #1 and #2.

[now]

36 minutes ago, Robh21223 said:

They are saying that HR cost Arizona 20 million, the difference in value between #1 and #2.

Is that true? How many career wins differential does that represent?
Judging from Elias's remarks on the draft ("It doesn't matter what pick we get"), he'd probably say, "I don't know and I don't care"--since you can only calculate retrospectively, not predictively... or something like that.

[Frobby]

 

13 hours ago, Robh21223 said:

They are saying that HR cost Arizona 20 million, the difference in value between #1 and #2.

 

12 hours ago, now said:

Is that true? How many career wins differential does that represent?
Judging from Elias's remarks on the draft ("It doesn't matter what pick we get"), he'd probably say, "I don't know and I don't care"--since you can only calculate retrospectively, not predictively... or something like that.

it might be $20 mm on average, but in any given year you don’t know how it will turn out.   It’s always a matter of making the right pick, and teams are very often wrong.   

[Brooks The Great]

On 9/30/2021 at 1:09 PM, Tony-OH said:

You mean like in the COVID shortened 5 round draft where they got Mayo in the 4th round with the savings they got from getting Kjerstad instead of Austin Martin? Who would you rather have in the system right now? Martin, who slashed just  .270/.414/.382/.796 with the same power and defensive concerns (under .900 fld PCT at SS) or Mayo and Kjerstad? 

For me, I was (and still am) disappointed in reaching for Kjerstad when we could have reached for Robert Hassell, Zac Veen, or Jordan Walker. All 3 of those guys could be franchise players and have better hit tools than Kjerstad, as well as similar raw power and arguably higher ceilings. I would have also preferred Nick Gonzales or Asa Lacy, even though Lacy does not look good at the moment. 

We could have still drafted Mayo drafting any of those players. My issue isn't with the myocarditis - that's just bad luck and could happen to anyone. It's with Kjerstad and reaching for him. Hopefully Heston comes back healthy and winds up playing in the majors, but I think Hassell, Veen, and Walker are awesome prospects and are less risky than Kjerstad (not even considering the unfortunate health condition).

[NCRaven]

Last time we had 1:1, did Elias take the best player available?

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Last time we had 1:1, did Elias take the best player available?

Depends on who you ask.  Witt may be the right answer.

[NCRaven]

I don’t think Witt was the consensus #1 pick then or the consensus #1 prospect in baseball now.  Rutschman was/is both.

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I don’t think Witt was the consensus #1 pick then or the consensus #1 prospect in baseball now.  Rutschman was/is both.

SG’s point is, Witt might turn out to be better.   He certainly had a fantastic season: .939 in AAA and .933 in AAA, all at the age of 21.    

My philosophy is, don’t worry if some other player turns out to be better than the one you picked, so long as the one you picked turns out to be very good.   The O’s will be fine if Rutschman turns out to be “only” a 40 WAR player while Witt turns out to be a 50.    But if Rutschman is just an above average player, that’s when you second guess yourself.