Severino or Mancini - More Trade Value?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Not a bad thought but I don't see either team proposing this either. Probably both looking for longshot prospects that don't cost anything. With Minor we'd be getting a 1 WAR pitcher for $10M, not really a win in salary and arguably not really an improvement over Akin/Zimmerman. 

Also Minor is looking like a pitcher on the downward slide of his career, who might be even worse in 2022. His ERA+ the last two seasons is 91 in 2021 and 80 last year.

I realize that Minor's 91 ERA+ would make him the third best starter on the Orioles currently. But if there'a $10M price tag attached, I don't see the Orioles paying Minor's full salary for his age 34 season. 

[NCRaven]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

In what respect?

The team isn't going to contend next year.

He isn't going to drive ticket sales.

He isn't going to be driving merch sales.

The feel good story was him coming back in 2021 not year two.

I agree that they don't intend to contend in 2022.  But, I don't expect them to actively tank either.  This may be a bridge year, so to speak, one that they begin building at the Major League level, not just the minor league and international levels.  Rutschman, Rodriguez, Stowers, Neustrom and DL Hall (given good health in all cases, especially Hall's) could all make their initial appearance in Baltimore during 2022.  I think that Mancini has some value in that situation.  I personally don't mind having him on the team for another year at his expected salary level.  It shouldn't have an impact on the team's ability to sign a Josh Harrison - type player to stabilize the infield or a better than Harvey level starting pitcher.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Not a bad thought but I don't see either team proposing this either. Probably both looking for longshot prospects that don't cost anything. With Minor we'd be getting a 1 WAR pitcher for $10M, not really a win in salary and arguably not really an improvement over Akin/Zimmerman. 

Fangraphs has him a lot more than 1 WAR this year and even if you want to go with BBR, they had him at a WAR of almost 8 in 2019. (FG had him at 4.1)

And there isn’t an argument that he isn’t an improvement over those guys. He is very clearly an improvement.  
 

Now, whether or not the Royals or Os would do the trade is certainly something to question.  I would tend to say no but it depends on multiple factors.  The Royals did spend money this past offseason in hopes to be better.  They have brought some young guys up, Witt will be up in April and they may want to keep trying to win and they have a huge hole at first and DH.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Also Minor is looking like a pitcher on the downward slide of his career, who might be even worse in 2022. His ERA+ the last two seasons is 91 in 2021 and 80 last year.

I realize that Minor's 91 ERA+ would make him the third best starter on the Orioles currently. But if there'a $10M price tag attached, I don't see the Orioles paying Minor's full salary for his age 34 season. 

You are looking at one stat..you need to look at the whole picture.  

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I agree that they don't intend to contend in 2022.  But, I don't expect them to actively tank either.  This may be a bridge year, so to speak, one that they begin building at the Major League level, not just the minor league and international levels.  Rutschman, Rodriguez, Stowers, Neustrom and DL Hall (given good health in all cases, especially Hall's) could all make their initial appearance in Baltimore during 2022.  I think that Mancini has some value in that situation.  I personally don't mind having him on the team for another year at his expected salary level.  It shouldn't have an impact on the team's ability to sign a Josh Harrison - type player to stabilize the infield or a better than Harvey level starting pitcher.

I don't mind either, but it isn't my money.  If they have a set payroll is spending a chunk of it on Mancini the best way to use it?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't mind either, but it isn't my money.  If they have a set payroll is spending a chunk of it on Mancini the best way to use it?

No, it’s a poor use of funds considering the presence of Mountcastle….but I don’t think they non tender him.  

 

[DrungoHazewood]

Severino will be non-tendered.

Mancini is a nice story and a good guy and everyone roots for him.  But he turns 30 in March and is a first baseman with a 115 OPS+.  He's going to have to age very well to have a productive career going forward.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, it’s a poor use of funds considering the presence of Mountcastle….but I don’t think they non tender him.  

 

Will that be Elias or ownership making that call?

 

IYO.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Will that be Elias or ownership making that call?

 

IYO.

TBH, I think both would be on that page.  Although hearing what I have heard about their finances, it does give me pause.  
 

Elias hasn’t shown much willingness to trade Trey since he got here.  
 

I do think if he ends up getting non tendered, it will be ownerships decision.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

TBH, I think both would be on that page.  Although hearing what I have heard about their finances, it does give me pause.  
 

Elias hasn’t shown much willingness to trade Trey since he got here.  
 

I do think if he ends up getting non tendered, it will be ownerships decision.

My unsolicited thought is that ownership is going to give Elias a budget that makes keeping Mancini problematic and if he stays it will because ownership is requiring it.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My unsolicited thought is that ownership is going to give Elias a budget that makes keeping Mancini problematic and if he stays it will because ownership is requiring it.

I could see that being the case too.  

[Legend_Of_Joey]

If Severino is behind the plate at Camden Yards next season, hopefully it is while he is on the visiting team. 

[Aristotelian]

 

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My unsolicited thought is that ownership is going to give Elias a budget that makes keeping Mancini problematic and if he stays it will because ownership is requiring it.

What would suck is if both are true... Which may well be the case. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

If Severino is behind the plate at Camden Yards next season, hopefully it is while he is on the visiting team. 

Or he just has really good seats.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or he just has really good seats.

I’m sure he has enough money for them.