MLBTR arbitration projections

[Sports Guy]

 

[ChrisP]

• Trey Mancini – $7.9MM (Yes)
• Pedro Severino – $3.1MM (No)
• Pat Valaika – $1.3MM (No)
• Anthony Santander – $3.7MM (Yes)
• Jorge Lopez – $1.5MM (Yes, as a RP)
• Paul Fry – $1.1MM (?, probably)
• Tanner Scott – $1.0MM (?, Not sure here either)
• John Means – $3.1MM (Yes)

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Lol at Pat Valaika. If there was any doubt in Valaika not getting non-tendered before that should settle any doubt. 

I can’t see Severino staying for $3M with his defense and AR on the horizon. Is there any chance the O’s could work out a trade? 

[ChuckS]

Tanner Scott at 1 mil is a no brainer. 

Mancini would be a non-tender candidate if not for off the field factors. 

I can see them going either way on Severino.

I agree with the OP on the others. 

[Frobby]

Unlike some years, nothing in these projections for the Orioles initially strikes me as wildly off base.   

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think Mancini gets that much although I’m not sure of how little of a raise he got in 2021 makes a difference.

I think MLbTR is wildly overrated on how “accurate” They are with these numbers.  

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think Mancini gets that much although I’m not sure of how little of a raise he got in 2021 makes a difference.

I think MLbTR is wildly overrated on how “accurate” They are with these numbers.  

I’ve never been wrong when I challenged one of their estimates as too high or too low.   But, I only challenge them when I think they’re way off base.   I do think they’re a little high on Mancini, but he’s likely to get something that starts with a 7.    

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve never been wrong when I challenged one of their estimates as too high or too low.   But, I only challenge them when I think they’re way off base.   I do think they’re a little high on Mancini, but he’s likely to get something that starts with a 7.    

The real bad one was when they were saying Villar was getting 10M.  That was never reality.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The real bad one was when they were saying Villar was getting 10M.  That was never reality.

Yes, that was ridiculous.   I think they had an unrealistic number for Mancini in Arb 1, and maybe Gausman in his last year.   I forget.  

Edit: No, I didn’t forget    They had projected Mancini at $5.7 mm for 2020;  he got $4.75 mm.   They projected Gausman for $6.8 mm in 2018; he got $5.6 mm.

 

 

[Il BuonO]

I don’t see why the off the field issues (coming back from cancer) should factor into their decision on Mancini.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I don’t see why the off the field issues (coming back from cancer) should factor into their decision on Mancini.

I think it definitely factors in.    This is a fan base that’s endured 5 straight losing seasons, the last 4 of which have been almost unwatchable.   Mancini is a huge fan favorite who has gone to hell and back, just exactly the kind of guy Baltimore loves.   Nontendering him probably would be the last straw for a large number of fans.   You have to weigh that when deciding what to do.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think it definitely factors in.    This is a fan base that’s endured 5 straight losing seasons, the last 4 of which have been almost unwatchable.   Mancini is a huge fan favorite who has gone to hell and back, just exactly the kind of guy Baltimore loves.   Nontendering him probably would be the last straw for a large number of fans.   You have to weigh that when deciding what to do.   

It shouldn't.  Given how tight the budget appears to be, they can't afford to be inefficient with it if they expect to compete.

I don't think the fans left have a last straw beyond moving the team out of Baltimore.

 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It shouldn't.  Given how tight the budget appears to be, they can't afford to be inefficient with it if they expect to compete.

I don't think the fans left have a last straw beyond moving the team out of Baltimore.

 

I don’t believe the budget is that tight.  Honestly, if payroll efficiency were the only goal, it would not make sense to keep Mancini.   That $7 mm couid be spent on players at other positions where we need help more.    But I do think fan relations are very important right now.   

Now, what I’m talking about is non-tendering Mancini.  If he were traded, I think the fans would not revolt.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I don’t believe the budget is that tight.  Honestly, if payroll efficiency were the only goal, it would not make sense to keep Mancini.   That $7 mm couid be spent on players at other positions where we need help more.    But I do think fan relations are very important right now.   

Now, what I’m talking about is non-tendering Mancini.  If he were traded, I think the fans would not revolt.   
 

Than bring Fanfest back.

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Than bring Fanfest back.

Maybe they will.   Last year was Covid, they weren’t going to do it then.   The year before they did the caravan thing.  Who knows what they’ll do this time?