MILB.com's top 50 prospects - how many O's prospects will land there?

[Frobby]

This list is a mess. From what I can gather the list made up from several other peoples top 75-100 list from MILB.com, and the you get an aggregate. So if one person really over ranks somebody, or leaves somebody off totally it really skews the numbers.

Ohh well, at least it is something to talk about

The only significance I give it is that some objective group thinks we have 3 pitchers in the top 36 prospects in baseball. One opinion out of several that will come out between now and next season. By the way, in another thread I listed the voting by posters on the minorleagueball.com site:

1. Wieters

20. Tillman (16 here)

27. Matusz (20 here)

59. Arrieta (36 here)

Obviously opinions can differ on this stuff. But pretty much everyone agrees that Wieters is the best position prospect in baseball, and that our three pitchers are in the upper tier. And that's nice to see.

[Frobby]

Just some thoughts after watching those videos about 5 times each. Both Tillman and Arrieta have a very intimidating demeanor on the mound, throwing over the top and really boring down on the hitter. I was a little surprised by Matusz's very short stride - he throws kind of like Jamie Moyer or Brian Burres. I think he could use his size and disguise the ball better than he does here. But that's just my offahnd impression.

[RVAbird]

Just some thoughts after watching those videos about 5 times each. Both Tillman and Arrieta have a very intimidating demeanor on the mound, throwing over the top and really boring down on the hitter. I was a little surprised by Matusz's very short stride - he throws kind of like Jamie Moyer or Brian Burres. I think he could use his size and disguise the ball better than he does here. But that's just my offahnd impression.

This is what I was complaining about leading up to the draft. I still hate that stride and the stiff front leg. Others were wary of it too. Apparently it's not something that should be an injury concern but who knows. It seems there are a couple minor mechanical adjustments Matusz could make to gain a little more velocity and be a little more consistent, though it seems what he's doing is working so far. We'll see if it becomes an issue.

(Just to note, I was still happy to walk away from the draft with Matusz and have no regrets about picking him. I'm very excited about him.)

[Frobby]

This is what I was complaining about leading up to the draft. I still hate that stride and the stiff front leg. Others were wary of it too. Apparently it's not something that should be an injury concern but who knows. It seems there are a couple minor mechanical adjustments Matusz could make to gain a little more velocity and be a little more consistent, though it seems what he's doing is working so far. We'll see if it becomes an issue.

(Just to note, I was still happy to walk away from the draft with Matusz and have no regrets about picking him. I'm very excited about him.)

Maybe the short stride allows him to repeat his delivery well and maintain command of his pitches. I think he'd get more velocity and movement on his heater with a better stride, though.

Oh well, I'll leave it to the Oriole coaches to change the way he throws and mess him up.

[JCK]

Price #1, Wieters #2

[OsandBohs11]

Price #1, Wieters #2

You can't argue with it due to what Price has already done in the majors.

[Dracula]

I liked on Wieters video where they said it would be an injustice if he wasn't the OD starting catcher.

D-Rays and O's are the only teams with 4 players on this list.

[Frobby]

I was a little disappointed Wieters didn't garner the #1 spot, but there's no doubt Price is also quite exceptional. Loved the Wieters video. For those too lazy to go to the site: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=446308

[tywright]

So Alderson doesn't make it and Escobar is #8?! Wow

[laxtonto]

Full List and 51-60

1. David Price

2. Matt Wieters

3. Jason Heyward

4. Rick Porcello

5. Cameron Maybin

6. Madison Bumgarner

7. Travis Snider

8. Alcides Escobar

9. Neftali Feliz

10. Colby Rasmus

11. Mike Moustakas

12. Andrew McCutchen

13. Brett Anderson

14. Matt LaPorta

15. Dexter Fowler

16. Chris Tillman

17. Trevor Cahill

18. Jarrod Parker

19. Buster Posey

20. Brian Matusz

21. Elvis Andrus

22. Tim Beckham

23. Mat Gamel

24. Tommy Hanson

25. Lars Anderson

26. Mike Stanton

27. Austin Jackson

28. Carlos Carrasco

29. Eric Hosmer

30. Carlos Triunfel

31. Wade Davis

32. Fernando Martinez

33. Phillippe Aumont

34. Yonder Alonso

35. Nick Adenhart

36. Jake Arrieta

37. Scott Elbert

38. Freddie Freeman

39. Jeremy Hellickson

40. Jesus Montero

41. Adam Miller

42. Brett Wallace

43. Lou Marson

44. Jeremy Jeffress

45. James McDonald

46. Derek Holland

47. Kyle Blanks

48. Angel Villalona

49. Matt Dominguez

50. Jeff Samardzija

* 51. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers

* 52. Logan Morrison, OF/1B, Marlins

* 53. Daniel Cortes, RHP, Royals

* 54. Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels

* 55. Ivan DeJesus, SS, Dodgers

* 56. Aaron Poreda, LHP, White Sox

* 57. Brett Cecil, LHP, Blue Jays

* 58. J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays

* 59. Tim Alderson, RHP, Giants

* 60. Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins

So Pedro Alvarez, Chacin, Vitters, Carlos Santana, J. Schafer,M. Ramierez, T. Alderson, B. Cecil, T. Teagarden, J. Zimmerman and Bowden are not in the top 50? Alvarez, the top college prospect and overwhelming College Player of the Year, is not ranked? How does one of the premier pitching prospects in all of baseball in Tim Alderson of SF not make it? How in the world does MLB.com leave off MLB.com's winner of the MiLBY for Best Overall Starting Pitcher, Jhoulys Chacin of the Colorado Rockies?

I am sorry, this list is junk in my opinion. It is nice to see the O's prospects raked high, but since this list is going to get seriously panned by most of the prospect gurus I have a hard time putting serious confidence in the rankings. All I can really pull from this list is that yes, the O's pitching prospects are well thought off. But we knew that already. Prospect lists are nice to help determine "tiers" or comparative value. When a list that is obviously lacking is used as a primer for comparison all it does is cause more problems and senseless arguments.

***But on a side note, it will be fun to dig on the Cub's fans about any Peavy deal with Vitters not being in the top 60.

[rhall]

Just some thoughts after watching those videos about 5 times each. Both Tillman and Arrieta have a very intimidating demeanor on the mound, throwing over the top and really boring down on the hitter. I was a little surprised by Matusz's very short stride - he throws kind of like Jamie Moyer or Brian Burres. I think he could use his size and disguise the ball better than he does here. But that's just my offahnd impression.

I've noticed Matusz's short stride before, too and that is connected to one of the only qualms scouts had about Matusz at the time of the draft. That short stride does result in him sometimes landing on a stiff front leg, which can put extra stress on his arm and affect his command.

There could very well be a few more mph in there for his fastball if they gave him a longer stride, but at the same time, he's been pitching this way for a long time and I believe his current motion actually gives him more deception than if they made him more "textbook". It'll be interesting to see if the O's try to change anything.

Considering how polished he is and the fact that he could move quickly, I don't expect them to change anything major that would force him to relearn anything. I'm not sure how he would take to the stride lengthening. Jim Johnson took to it very well, and very quickly, but that doesn't mean Matusz will.

[Stotle]

I've noticed Matusz's short stride before, too and that is connected to one of the only qualms scouts had about Matusz at the time of the draft. That short stride does result in him sometimes landing on a stiff front leg, which can put extra stress on his arm and affect his command.

There could very well be a few more mph in there for his fastball if they gave him a longer stride, but at the same time, he's been pitching this way for a long time and I believe his current motion actually gives him more deception than if they made him more "textbook". It'll be interesting to see if the O's try to change anything.

Considering how polished he is and the fact that he could move quickly, I don't expect them to change anything major that would force him to relearn anything. I'm not sure how he would take to the stride lengthening. Jim Johnson took to it very well, and very quickly, but that doesn't mean Matusz will.

I don't think they change anything. His secondary stuff is so impressive (along with plus-command) that he can live in the low-90s with his fastball. It'll be interesting to see if he beats Arrieta to the Majors -- those two should be first up in late '09/early '10.

[Frobby]

I don't think they change anything. His secondary stuff is so impressive (along with plus-command) that he can live in the low-90s with his fastball. It'll be interesting to see if he beats Arrieta to the Majors -- those two should be first up in late '09/early '10.

How does Arrieta get to the majors ahead of Tillman if Tillman has spent a year in AA already and Arrieta has only played high A? I noticed in the milb.com blurb on Arrieta, they quote Joe Jordan as saying he thinks AA is very important for Arrieta because in Frederick he was able to get away with relying on his fastball a lot without using his other pitches as much as he'll need to against better competition. Wouldn't that suggest that Tillman is likely to reach the majors first?

Believe me, I'm neutral on who gets there first, just so long as when they get there, they are ready to succeed.

[Stotle]

How does Arrieta get to the majors ahead of Tillman if Tillman has spent a year in AA already and Arrieta has only played high A? I noticed in the milb.com blurb on Arrieta, they quote Joe Jordan as saying he thinks AA is very important for Arrieta because in Frederick he was able to get away with relying on his fastball a lot without using his other pitches as much as he'll need to against better competition. Wouldn't that suggest that Tillman is likely to reach the majors first?

Believe me, I'm neutral on who gets there first, just so long as when they get there, they are ready to succeed.

It might suggest that, but Tillman is younger than the other two, doesn't command his fastball well in the zone, needs to continue to work on his changeup and needs to improve the consistency and command on his curveball.

To be honest, I'd have Tillman in AA to start 2009 and I might keep him there for half of the year until I see him improve on the above. I'd put the two at about the same developmental level, but Arrieta may have better command. Half a season at AA to prove his secondary stuff and then you can either jump him or move him up to AAA.

Matusz I'd put on a completely different track. Start at HiA for five-ish starts. Move to AA and shoot for 15-ish starts. If he has dominated at both levels, bump him to AAA for a handful of starts and let him get a taste in September.

All of this, of course, assuming no one stumbles and BAL has room at the ML-level.

[clapdiddy]

Honestly, it's really a treat to see us have 3 prospects in the top 20 on ANY list.