MILB.com's top 50 prospects - how many O's prospects will land there?

[Frobby]

MILB.com is rolling out its top 50 prospects list this week, 10 at a time. Yesterday they rolled out 41-50 - no Orioles yet. Nos. 31-40 to be posted later today and I've got a gut feeling that one or more of our top 3 pitching prospects is going to land in this range.

To show how discrepant these "expert opinions" can be, MILB.com has Lou Marson, Phillies catching prospect, at no. 43. John Sickels of minorleagueball.com has him at no. 10 - in the Phillies system!

[Lucky Jim]

Four: Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Wieters.

Wieters will be at 1 or 2.

Tillman will be 10-15.

Arrieta will be 20-30.

Matusz will be 30-40.

[JCK]

Arrieta comes in at 36.

4 seems inevitable.

Wieters will be 1-2, Tillman will be 10-20, Matusz will be 20-30

[Lucky Jim]

Arrieta comes in at 36.

4 seems inevitable.

Wieters will be 1-2, Tillman will be 10-20, Matusz will be 20-30

How often do I get proven wrong in just a matter of minutes?

Sadly, often.

[JCK]

I'm sure you'll be right about the number of O's!

[Frobby]

It's notable that two Rays pitching prospects, Wade Davis (31) and Jeremy Hellickson (39) also landed in this range. As psyched as we are about Matusz/Tillman/Arrieta, Price/Davis/Hellickson is an equally impressive trio, and a little more advanced.

[tywright]

Don't be surprised if you do NOT see Matusz in the top 50.

[Frobby]

Don't be surprised if you do NOT see Matusz in the top 50.

It would surprise me a lot. He was the top pitcher selected in the draft, and Orioles Hangout, Baseball America, BBHQ and John Sickels all rank Matusz ahead of Arrieta. Reasonable minds can differ, but I doubt they will in this case. The only real issue is how high Tillman and Matusz will rank, and in which order.

[Lucky Jim]

Don't be surprised if you do NOT see Matusz in the top 50.

My thinking, too. Now that the numbers are coming out. Difficult to foresee Matusz ahead of Arrieta.

That said, Matusz's AFL peripherals were very good. It should be enough, with his pitchability and LHedness to get him on the list.

Though I'm starting to doubt it, now.

[Frobby]

My thinking, too. Now that the numbers are coming out. Difficult to foresee Matusz ahead of Arrieta.

That said, Matusz's AFL peripherals were very good. It should be enough, with his pitchability and LHedness to get him on the list.

Though I'm starting to doubt it, now.

I've seen the term "pitchability" a few times on this board and on scouting reports. What exactly does it mean?

[Avsfan]

It would surprise me a lot. He was the top pitcher selected in the draft, and Orioles Hangout, Baseball America, BBHQ and John Sickels all rank Matusz ahead of Arrieta. Reasonable minds can differ, but I doubt they will in this case. The only real issue is how high Tillman and Matusz will rank, and in which order.

Milb might not include him, cause he's only pitched in the AFL...and not in the actual minor leagues.

[NoVaO]

I've seen the term "pitchability" a few times on this board and on scouting reports. What exactly does it mean?

Feel for pitching, knowing how to set hitters up, change speeds, keep hitters guessing...that sort of stuff.

[tywright]

It would surprise me a lot. He was the top pitcher selected in the draft, and Orioles Hangout, Baseball America, BBHQ and John Sickels all rank Matusz ahead of Arrieta. Reasonable minds can differ, but I doubt they will in this case. The only real issue is how high Tillman and Matusz will rank, and in which order.

MiLB's top 50 is ususally very "interesting". Just take a look at who is appearing on there right now. Adenhart, Aumont, and Miller probably shouldn't be on the list. As much as I like Marson, he should definitely not be on the list. And Holland is a top 10 pitching prospect and needs to be in the top 25.

There's 30 spots left. Here's 40 that have a good shot at that top 30. My point is, which 10 don't make it? Matusz might not be included because of his relatively short pro debut and MiLB's "interesting" ranking history.

Wieters

Price

Snider

Heyward

Maybin

Moustakas

Bumgarner

Fowler

Rasmus

Cahill

Tillman

Porcello

Feliz

Lars Anderson

Laporta

Pedro Alvarez

Stanton

Brett Anderson

Vitters

Chacin

McCutchen

Hanson

Alderson

Carlos Santana

Montero

Parker

Hosmer

Gamel

Morrison

Posey

Tim Beckham

Gordon Beckham

Revere

Smoak

Andrus

Schafer

Cecil

Zimmerman

Escobar

Matusz

[NoVaO]

I also think it's worth pointing out that MiLB's top-50 lists have had a few odd-ball picks in the past that don't jive with what most scouting reports say...

In the 2007 list, among the 72 names were Eric Patterson, Donald Veal, Chris Perez, Wyatt Toregas, Chris Parmelee, Paul Kelly, Tony Sipp, Gaby Sanchez, Michael Bourn, Kory Casto, Matt Harrison, Zech Zenicola, Curtis Thigpen, Chip Cannon, Juan Salas, Miguel Montero, John Mayberry Jr., Terry Evans, Kasey Kiker, and Marcus McBeth.

I don't remember seeing more than 2 or 3 of these guys in anybody's top prospect list. Way too much of an emphasis on relievers, IMO.

Scott Elbert, Gio Gonzalez, Eric Hurley, Ian Kennedy, Ross Detwiller, Chris Volstad, Tyler Colvin, and Radhames Liz popped up on last year's top-50 list and each player left me confused as to why they were on there. I didn't feel there was a top-50 prospect in that group. Volstad has proven me wrong thus far, but the others haven't done anything to justify their top-50 status.

This year, I'm questioning the selections of Marson, Alonso, and I'm very surprised to see Elbert back at 37 given his health and control issues. I have a couple minor issues with Adenhart, McDonald, and Villalona, but nothing too major.

[NoVaO]

MiLB's top 50 is ususally very "interesting". Just take a look at who is appearing on there right now. Adenhart, Aumont, and Miller probably shouldn't be on the list. As much as I like Marson, he should definitely not be on the list. And Holland is a top 10 pitching prospect and needs to be in the top 25.

There's 30 spots left. Here's 40 that have a good shot at that top 30. My point is, which 10 don't make it? Matusz might not be included because of his relatively short pro debut and MiLB's "interesting" ranking history.

Wieters

Price

Snider

Heyward

Maybin

Moustakas

Bumgarner

Fowler

Rasmus

Cahill

Tillman

Porcello

Feliz

Lars Anderson

Laporta

Pedro Alvarez

Stanton

Brett Anderson

Vitters

Chacin

McCutchen

Hanson

Alderson

Carlos Santana

Montero

Parker

Hosmer

Gamel

Morrison

Posey

Tim Beckham

Gordon Beckham

Revere

Smoak

Andrus

Schafer

Cecil

Zimmerman

Escobar

Matusz

Ha!! Good post (see post No. 14).