Final Call: Who do the O's protect from the Rule 5 draft?

[Jammer7]

13 hours ago, wildcard said:

Vespi did well at AA and in the AZ League which I consider AA+. But he did poorly at AAA which means the jump to the majors for a 26 year old may be a jump too far.   The question is not will he be claimed but will the team that claims him keep him for 90 days.  

That is very fair. If you have to choose between Fry and Vespi, who would you keep? Maybe neither?

I will not assume that what happened to Fry is fixable. We hope it is. Fry is twice the salary of Vespi. Vespi is 3-4 years younger than Fry. I think Vespi would be selected if left off, and it depends on which team selected him whether he comes back or not. 

A factor in many of these pitchers who have struggled in AAA (Smith, Vespi, Knight, and others) is reported to be related to the different balls, sure. But why did the Orioles not renew Kennie Steenstra or Gary Kendall? IDK. The jump from AA to AAA was reported to be larger than normal last year. Same with the jump from AAA to MLB.

Smith, Blaine Knight and Vespi all looked great in AA. Probably all just bullpen/middle inning guys. I am particularly not huge on Smith, but I think Vespi and Knight might have swing and miss sliders in the pen. Knight’s struggles seemed to begin after the birth of his first child. Many of us can relate to that, lol. 

[UMDTerrapins]

Copying from another thread:

Fielders (15) - Trey Mancini, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, Kelvin Gutierrez, Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan McKenna, DJ Stewart, Jahmai Jones, Yusniel Diaz, Rylan Bannon, Tyler Nevin, Richie Martin

Pitchers (17) - John Means, Bruce Zimmerman, Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer, Zac Lowther, Alex Wells, Tyler Wells, Cole Sulser, Tanner Scott, Mike Baumann, Dillon Tate, Jorge Lopez, Joey Krehbiel, Brooks Kriske, Paul Fry, Isaac Mattson, Brian Baker

Rule V Eligible - DL Hall, Kyle Bradish, Terrin Vavra, Robert Neustrom, Felix Bautista, Kevin Smith, Blaine Knight, Patrick Dorrian, Nick Vespi, Cody Sedlock, Ofelky Peralta, Greg Cullen, Adam Hall, Cadyn Grenier, Logan Gillaspie, Adam Stauffer, Brett Cumberland, Mason McCoy, Brenan Hanifee, Ignacio Feliz, Conner Loeprich, Cameron Bishop, David Lebron, Diogenes Almengo, Ryan Conroy, Tim Naughton, Lamar Sparks, Jean Carmona, Christopher Cespedes (not a comprehensive list).

[Jammer7]

I would break it down like this:

Definite additions:

• DL Hall
• Terrin Vavra
• Kyle Bradish 

Probable Additions:

• Rob Neustrom
• Felix Bautista
• Kevin Smith
• Nick Vespi

Possible Additions: Ofelky Peralta, Blaine Knight, Cody Sedlock, Cadyn Grenier, Cameron Bishop

Food for thought, but who would you rather keep if you have to keep one of each line?

• Stewart vs. Neustrom
• Fry vs. Vespi
• Bannon/Martin vs. Grenier
• Kriske vs. Knight
• Baker vs. Sedlock

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

 

• Stewart vs. Neustrom  ==== Both stay
• Fry vs. Vespi ==== Fry
• Bannon/Martin vs. Grenier=== Bannon goes/Martin stays until they see if  Grenier is claimed.
• Kriske vs. Knight===Neither is protected
• Baker vs. Sedlock===Baker

My guess

[UMDTerrapins]

My prediction is that we don't protect Vespi and that he is drafted, along with Peralta and Sedlock. 

[Aristotelian]

48 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

 

Rule V Eligible - DL Hall, Kyle Bradish, Terrin Vavra, Robert Neustrom, Felix Bautista, Kevin Smith, Blaine Knight, Patrick Dorrian, Nick Vespi, Cody Sedlock, Ofelky Peralta, Greg Cullen, Adam Hall, Cadyn Grenier, Logan Gillaspie, Adam Stauffer, Brett Cumberland, Mason McCoy, Brenan Hanifee, Ignacio Feliz, Conner Loeprich, Cameron Bishop, David Lebron, Diogenes Almengo, Ryan Conroy, Tim Naughton, Lamar Sparks, Jean Carmona, Christopher Cespedes (not a comprehensive list).

I could see Lebron getting selected if we don't protect. Don't have much to go on with him but put up solid numbers in AA with additional small sample in AAA, K/9 took a jump last year. 

[sportsfan8703]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

Good question.   It’s worth noting though that of the OH top 20 so far, only two are already on the 40 man roster (Lowther and Baumann) and only three others (Hall, Bradish, Vavra) need to be added.  The other 15 don’t need to be added yet, including 13 of our top 14.    So, you could still have a situation where some other team has more guys near the top that it needs to protect than we do.  

Great post. It really goes to illustrate how we can have the best farm system but the worst mlb roster.  The 40 man roster is not a reflection of your organizational talent. 
 

Also, keep in mind that these players that need to get protected were still the other regimes guys. Except for some of the guys Elias traded for. Like LHP Kevin Smith. 
 

Edited November 15, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

 

Food for thought, but who would you rather keep if you have to keep one of each line?

• Stewart vs. Neustrom
• Fry vs. Vespi
• Bannon/Martin vs. Grenier
• Kriske vs. Knight
• Baker vs. Sedlock

It's Monday and my brain isn't working.  Who's Baker?

[Aristotelian]

Just now, glenn__davis said:

It's Monday and my brain isn't working.  Who's Baker?

Guy we picked up off waivers from the Blue Jays. Looks solid. I think Brian. 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, glenn__davis said:

It's Monday and my brain isn't working.  Who's Baker?

Waiver wire claim by Elias. Righty reliever. Claimed on Nov 8th from the Jays.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerbr01.shtml

[glenn__davis]

Thank you both.  I tend to ignore all of those waiver claims since half of them don't make it through the offseason anyway.  If they start getting innings in ST I'll pay attention haha.

[sportsfan8703]

I think we’ll see Elias leave two spots open to take two arms with high upside he likes in the Rule 5 draft. 

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, UMDTerrapins said:

My prediction is that we don't protect Vespi and that he is drafted, along with Peralta and Sedlock. 

Could certainly happen that way. I think Grenier has a shot. The glove is really good, but we know the offensive issues and has about average range.

[Jammer7]

36 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Thank you both.  I tend to ignore all of those waiver claims since half of them don't make it through the offseason anyway.  If they start getting innings in ST I'll pay attention haha.

I agree. The exercise is just to see who people would keep, given the fodder still on the roster vs. prospects of similar stature or profile.

[Just Regular]

50 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Great post. It really goes to illustrate how we can have the best farm system but the worst mlb roster.  The 40 man roster is not a reflection of your organizational talent. 
 

Also, keep in mind that these players that need to get protected were still the other regimes guys. Except for some of the guys Elias traded for. Like LHP Kevin Smith. 

Good call on Smith - my guess is the "hand-picked by this regime factor" will make his coin toss favorable.

On the first paragraph, it kind of is until it isn't.   Somewhere in the process you voluntarily call up your Machado/Schoop (before you are required to, even!) and try to win a bunch of games for 5+ years.   I might go so far as to say the 40-man for prospects has not that great correlation to star upside on your farm, because any star good enough should play their way on to your 26 before the 40 becomes a technical requirement.   Or the other way around, a prospect still in prospectdom that has to get on to the 40 maybe isn't that hot a prospect, though our DL Hall now is a "wildly talented high school pitcher with bumps in the road" counterexample.

It is five years out, but November 2026 if current rules continue the roster I think might attain "maximum saturation" if we haven't done many Packages for One Star deals.   My guess is in 2022 and 2023 Elias will have very big pools both years and if we stay as college heavy, discount heavy, Spread The Pool...the Orioles will have 2023 college guys to keep slow with for 2023/2024/2025/2026.

Some year we'll probably be at risk of losing a more valuable property than Zach Pop.