Who will have the better career, Mullins or Hays?

[Frobby]

Just curious what people think about this.  Mullins was certainly the superior player in 2021, and he doesn’t have Hays’ injury history.   He’s also a CF while Hays is a corner OF who can play CF if necessary.   Yet, Hays is a year younger and was the more highly regarded prospect while they were coming up together, and he certainly shows potential for improvement building on a pretty decent year.   

I ran a similar poll once on who would end up having the better career, Markakis or Jones.   They ended up very close in total value when it was all said and done.   I’d love for Mullins and Hays to have 2/3 the success those two did.  
 

[Aristotelian]

Mullins has a significant head start plus no injury history. Hays came on pretty strong but I'm concerned he won't hit RHP.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Mullins has a significant head start plus no injury history. Hays came on pretty strong but I'm concerned he won't hit RHP.

I wouldn't say a significant head start.  Mullins is up 5.4 rWAR to 4.2 rWAR but he's a year older.

[interloper]

It's tempting to get cute and go with Hays, but there's not a lot there to back up that take. He's got the better arm and that's about it. But I really like Hays as a Jones kind of comp if he can stay healthy. Mullins has just plain done more at the big league level, though, so to not pick him feels weird. 

[waroriole]

I mean one of the two has been on a lot of MVP ballots…….

[HowAboutThat]

Mullins. Eventually you stop talking about “prospect” and start talking about “producer” and Mullins looks like he will be a longer-term producer, he currently has 5.4 and Hays has 4.2. So, all things equal, Hays has to make up 1.2 just to keep up, and with his injury history, he’s a risky choice, although I am very happy to have Hays on the team, and they are a lot closer than one might think( Mullins has 976 career ABs to Hays’ 738)

[MurphDogg]

I went with Hays. Partly just to be contrarian and partly because I think the injury prone label gets overblown. I hope Mullins can continue to be the .800-ish OPS player that he was over the second half of 2021 which can be a 3-4 WAR type player.

Hays is a year younger and put up 3.1 rWAR in 2021, his first full season and I am optimistic that he can still get better against righties.

I think they will end up with similarly valuable careers.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Here is the thread that I started in April

[oriole]

42 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Here is the thread that I started in April

I went with Mullins then so I guess I’ll say Mullins now too. Though I can’t help but feel like Hays will be more consistent when healthy and Mullins will not be the same caliber player he was this year and have years where he’ll not be any good at all…but I’m literally guessing so there’s that…

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Here is the thread that I started in April

Amazing how few people who posted there actually answered your question.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I went with Mullins too based on his breakout season and ability to stay healthy. Hays certainly could have the better career.

Hays will need to stay healthy and rebound from his .221 batting average against RHP last season. Hays for his career has batted .252 against RHP, so he should be able to rebound next year. 

Hays can also hit 30+ home runs if he has a breakout year like Mullins did. 

[NCRaven]

I went with Mountcastle.

[Just Regular]

B-Ref's 162 game averages give Hays a 3.3 to 3.2 WAR edge in their careers to date.

Mullins is held back by the early struggles of his switch hitting self, Hays has both youth and pedigree.   I think Mullins CF defense may be a separator protecting his regular role from Cowser and Kjerstad in time.   It'd be nice in 2024 if the Orioles need a 5th outfielder as little as they need a backup catcher.   I picked Mullins in the poll, but one of the pleasantest close calls between good Orioles - no one is like Adley, and Rodriguez has separated himself from everyone else.

Looking at Orioles Cots, 2.057 and 2.078 are the Hays/Mullins Service Times as of 1/1/2022, so four more years of both, but right above them Cots reflects Richie Martin 2.110 giving him Super 2 status and ventures a 725,000 guess that is about ~25% over the minimum.   I wonder if the Fox pickup might prepare ground a little for Martin talks about avoiding arb for 2022 at something closer to the minimum.   A Martin non-tender from here might save 150K and open a spot for a second Rule 5 pick...

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Looking at Orioles Cots, 2.057 and 2.078 are the Hays/Mullins Service Times as of 1/1/2022, so four more years of both, but right above them Cots reflects Richie Martin 2.110 giving him Super 2 status and ventures a 725,000 guess that is about ~25% over the minimum.   I wonder if the Fox pickup might prepare ground a little for Martin talks about avoiding arb for 2022 at something closer to the minimum.   A Martin non-tender from here might save 150K and open a spot for a second Rule 5 pick...

Has it been determined that Martin would be a Super 2 under current rules?   I don’t think the threshold has ever gone below 2.115, which was Josh Hader.

[Just Regular]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Has it been determined that Martin would be a Super 2 under current rules?   I don’t think the threshold has ever gone below 2.115, which was Josh Hader.

I don't know if Cot's is hedging since he's close or if they have inside info.   Martin has certainly been absent in stuff Roch, Meoli, etc. have written about our arb group in the last month, but I also don't know when precisely MLB concludes the slicing and dicing of what 2.1xx days of service fall on either side of the line.   I believe they couldn't until after the regular season concludes for a full view of how everyone lines up.