I'm already over this offseason.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

There is value in having a watchable product, of course.  But is that value worth losing a 1/3rd of our draft budget allotment?  That I just don't know.   Having a somewhat better,  but still losing team,  to me really doesn't justify these kind of contracts.   I'd rather have the payroll and roster flexibility to add when we are ready to compete, not just to get slightly more respectable.

Omg..the draft again?  Enough.  I’m so sick and tired of people saying it’s smart to do this because of the draft.  It’s not.  We have done that long enough.  We don’t need to keep doing this.

St Louis, LAD, Dodgers and many others are examples of teams that draft late every year and do a good job.  
 

The history of the draft says the 10th pick is more valuable than the 5th pick.  Most players drafted outside of the first round never become anything and yet we should continue to tank for players that likely will never become anything?  No, that’s dumb.  Early on, I was all for this.  Hell, by the time this year was sunk, I was hoping the team would never win a another game because of this.  But 2021 is over.  The goal for 2022 should be to get close to 500, play much better baseball and position yourself for a playoff run in 2023.  The goal should not be to sh!t the bed again just so we can have a big draft pool.  
 

I don’t know about you but I would rather see a much more competitive team with 2023 playoff aspirations instead of discussing whether or not we will go overslot with the 3rd round pick.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Omg..the draft again?  Enough.  I’m so sick and tired of people saying it’s smart to do this because of the draft.  It’s not.  We have done that long enough.  We don’t need to keep doing this.

St Louis, LAD, Dodgers and many others are examples of teams that draft late every year and do a good job.  
 

The history of the draft says the 10th pick is more valuable than the 5th pick.  Most players drafted outside of the first round never become anything and yet we should continue to tank for players that likely will never become anything?  No, that’s dumb.  Early on, I was all for this.  Hell, by the time this year was sunk, I was hoping the team would never win a another game because of this.  But 2021 is over.  The goal for 2022 should be to get close to 500, play much better baseball and position yourself for a playoff run in 2023.  The goal should not be to sh!t the bed again just so we can have a big draft pool.  
 

I don’t know about you but I would rather see a much more competitive team with 2023 playoff aspirations instead of discussing whether or not we will go overslot with the 3rd round pick.

Underslot.

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Omg..the draft again?  Enough.  I’m so sick and tired of people saying it’s smart to do this because of the draft.  It’s not.  We have done that long enough.  We don’t need to keep doing this.

St Louis, LAD, Dodgers and many others are examples of teams that draft late every year and do a good job.  
 

The history of the draft says the 10th pick is more valuable than the 5th pick.  Most players drafted outside of the first round never become anything and yet we should continue to tank for players that likely will never become anything?  No, that’s dumb.  Early on, I was all for this.  Hell, by the time this year was sunk, I was hoping the team would never win a another game because of this.  But 2021 is over.  The goal for 2022 should be to get close to 500, play much better baseball and position yourself for a playoff run in 2023.  The goal should not be to sh!t the bed again just so we can have a big draft pool.  
 

I don’t know about you but I would rather see a much more competitive team with 2023 playoff aspirations instead of discussing whether or not we will go overslot with the 3rd round pick.

It's not so much the top pick, but the overall pool numbers we get from the higher draft selections.  Some of our most interesting prospects are overslot guys like Mayo.  Without sufficient pool to spend is doubtful we have him. 

 

Yes,  the Cardinals and Dodgers and others do a great job of finding value later in the draft and we will get to that point too, I hope, once we have talent at the MLB level. 

I do agree about 2023 being the year expectations for a playoff push need to happen.  Just not sure we need to make deals like the one here everyone is complaining about to help accomplish that goal. 

[owknows]

32 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's not about making the playoffs next season, although it'd be awesome if we somehow did.  You are right, no 4/44 guy is going to make the difference between us and the playoffs next year.

It's about not ****ing around and getting better whenever/wherever you can.  Matz or Ed-Rod would have been an upgrade for us.  

I think we share the same goals. To be sustainably better.

An upgrade now makes fans feel a little better for a season.

An upgrade when we enter the sweet spot could make the difference between sustainability or not.

Most of the dichotomy in opinion in the fan base comes from being tired of the pain of losing.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, owknows said:

I think we share the same goals. To be sustainably better.

An upgrade now makes fans feel a little better for a season.

An upgrade when we enter the sweet spot could make the difference between sustainability or not.

Most of the dichotomy in opinion in the fan base comes from being tired of the pain of losing.

If you want to keep collecting picks and building assets why not leave Grayson and Adley in the minors all year and increase the odds of getting 1-1?

Mountcastle can still be optioned.

If that's the goal, do it right.

[Moose Milligan]

47 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, you and Sports Guy have a different opinion on what the Orioles should be doing this offseason then many of us and clearly what the Orioles are going to do.

That doesn't make you wrong, it means we have a different opinion.

I do want the Orioles to start getting better next season and don't want to see any Matt Harvey type moves or bringing up guys from AAA that are not legitimate major league league players. 

But here's where I see us right now. This is the first year where wins and development at the major league level matter. Rutschman will be here. Rodriguez should not be too far behind.

They were an awful team next year and signing a couple guys is not going to change that. When we're closer, then its time to add talent.

 

That's fair enough and we're sort of in agreement that signing a couple of guys isn't going to change that.  They'd be a little less awful signing a couple of guys.

But if you want to see the Orioles get better next year and not sign any Harvey types (we agree) and not bring up guys from AAA who aren't legit (we agree) then what do you want to see them do if you want to wait for them to be closer to add talent?

IMO, if you're going to bring up guys like AR and G-Rod, you also owe it to them to have good players around them.  I mean, I'd much rather have AR working with a guy like Matz or Ed-Rod than a Harvey type.  I think you would, too.  

Mind you, I'm not saying that we've gotta go all-in on the top ranked pitchers that are free agents, but signings like Ed-Rod and Matz should be well within the budget and guys that would make this team better.  

 

 

[Moose Milligan]

59 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Here’s the thing..you know they aren’t doing anything.  You know why?  Because Elias is telling us they aren’t.  He’s telling the fan base to really lower our expectations.

I don't need Elias to tell me that, although the honesty is refreshing.  I've just been watching on what's not getting done.

[justD]

The one argument I'm seeing in this thread is that spending big, early money on FA signings (LAA, StL, DET) doesn't make sense if you don't think you'll get to the playoffs this season.  Where would that money go instead?  Infrastructure such as the new DR facility? Check.  International signings? Idk; that may be a different pool. 

Next year's draft? 

That's the second argument I'm seeing, that winning jeopardizes your ability to continue building the "talent pipeline" in next year's draft.  But as pointed out by @Sports Guy in this thread (and by him and others repeatedly elsewhere over the years), drafting high doesn't improve your chances of success, at least not unless you're talking about dropping out of the top 5-10.  

Of course, odds improve if you have a larger number of higher round picks.  Somehow, teams like Boston and NYY and LAD seem to be able to stock those picks year after year, increasing the statistical likelihood of landing a one or more gems when they do pick.  This used to be a game that was played with FA signings to short-term deals that would reward the team losing the FA with a high-round pick; I'm not sure how they do it now, but it's likely not something that's available to us in our current situation. 

So perhaps the amount of money available to spread out over the amateur draft overall could be the only way we could continue to get "sustainably better."  You've got more chances to pay overslot, more ability to convince players ahead of time to sign with your club if you pick them at a certain spot and pay them well, etc. Perhaps you can improve your situation by repeatedly doing that, as we've been doing.

But the annual amateur draft can only reward you for so long.  Even the Rays and Nats only took a couple of years of being bottom feeders with #1 draft picks before they moved on to the next steps of building around their future stars other ways, didn't they? 

Maybe the 2020 season disrupted the whole plan, with the number of years now stretched out beyond what was expected by most of us when Elias first came on board.

But, I, too, now find it intolerable, even though I was totally on board before.  I'm no longer sold by these arguments that it's really benefiting the team, either by holding $$ for the draft or because it only makes sense to spend if you think you're playoff ready - not after three, and now perhaps four seasons of this strategy. 

I tweeted about it last season -- I could not see how he could sleep at night fielding a team that was as bad as it was, how he could look himself in the mirror while putting absolutely nothing into presenting a respectable Major League Baseball product to Orioles fans.  The idea of doing it for yet another season...

It's time to start looking for more of a balance, and I don't believe it will sabotage any of the rebuilding effort at all.  In fact, surrounding the young guys who will start coming up with support to try to win seems imperative to keep from sabotaging their visions of the Orioles organization they're joining as core players - will it be visions of winning, or bad memories of being part of another laughingstock season?

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you want to keep collecting picks and building assets why not leave Grayson and Adley in the minors all year and increase the odds of getting 1-1?

Mountcastle can still be optioned.

If that's the goal, do it right.

After June 1, assuming the same CBA situation, GR and Hall should not waste another pitch in the minors. We should be happy with our 6.5 years of control and fire the bullets in their arms at the MLB level. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

After June 1, assuming the same CBA situation, GR and Hall should not waste another pitch in the minors. We should be happy with our 6.5 years of control and fire the bullets in their arms at the MLB level. 

But why not wait another year or two?

Nothing stopping the O's from holding Adley back until 2024 when they can bring up the whole crew at once!

Could have rookie of the year candidates at every position with a couple more 1-1 picks to work with.

Think of how much they will save on payroll to invest in free agents to put our guys over the top.

 

Seriously, if the goal is to field a purposefully inept team to collect another draft pick in 2022 it's stupid for them to promote Adley and GR. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But why not wait another year or two?

Nothing stopping the O's from holding Adley back until 2024 when they can bring up the whole crew at once!

Could have rookie of the year candidates at every position with a couple more 1-1 picks to work with.

Think of how much they will save on payroll to invest in free agents to put our guys over the top.

 

Seriously, if the goal is to field a purposefully inept team to collect another draft pick in 2022 it's stupid for them to promote Adley and GR. 

 

With that thinking we shouldn’t call them up until we’re .500. Like it or not, under the current rules, that 7th year of club control matters for us. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hey and if they don't ever get close they never have to spend.

Do you honestly think that's Elias' goal?

I'm not taking up for the Angelos brothers because to me, we just don't know their intentions yet when it comes to spending to win, but do you really think Elias is doing it this way because he doesn't want to win?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Do you honestly think that's Elias' goal?

I'm not taking up for the Angelos brothers because to me, we just don't know their intentions yet when it comes to spending to win, but do you really think Elias is doing it this way because he doesn't want to win?

I think he wants to win.

I don't think it is the primary goal of ownership.

[Just Regular]

I think the line is Adley, like 3-13 rookie Peyton Manning, can anchor a team to get Edgerrin James the next year, and off you go.

The long term probability of Orioles playoff berths 2023 and onward would be hindered by withholding 2022 MLB reps.

I do think the five years of near maximum bonus pools from 2019-2023 as I think will play out does push past anything those trailblazing Cubs and Astros did, but think Elias would put that painful necessity in the context of the AL East and unbalanced schedules, the Duquette-ian maximization of MLB wins in a 5-year period amplified by ownership loving Chris Davis, and myocarditis.

Along with the Akin group failing, Kjerstad's inability to show if he's almost as blue a chip as Torkelson like Elias thinks is another ding on the "planned" capability of the 2022 Orioles.

 

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think he wants to win.

I don't think it is the primary goal of ownership.

Fair enough. 

Do you think Elias is rebuilding the way he's doing this because of a lack of money from ownership or do you think he's doing it this way because he thinks this is the best way to rebuild to become a perennial winner?