MLB Lockout Thread

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Moshagge3 said:

They certainly are. As are best-of-three, best-of-five, and even best-of-seven series. But the single-elimination tourney would get great ratings (ratings always spike for a Game 7) and the winner would be so obviously illegitimate that people would have to give some recognition the team with the best record.

No, I don't think they are the same as at least a 5 game series. College basketball work because the teams don't play each other and at different levels of competition, so its exciting. Giving the 16th best team over a full schedule a chance to win a bunch of one and done series would be awful for the sport in my opinion.

[btdart20]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a ton of parity in MLB.  

I'm sure there are various ways to define parity.  Defined as a fan hoping for a legit shot at competing and winning a championship, I disagree. 

The past few (legit) playoffs:

2015 - TOR, NYY, KC, TEX, Hou, NYM, STL, PIT, CHC, LAD  - 6 of top 10 media markets (plus Toronto)

2016 - BOS, TB, BAL, CLE, TEX, WAS, NYM, CHC, LAD, SF - 7 of top 10

2017 - BOS, NYY, CLE, MN, Hou, WAS, CHC, LAD, ARZ, COL - 6 of top 10 

2018 - BOS, NYY, CLE, Hou, Oak, ATL, MIL, CHC, LAD, COL - 7 of top 10

2019 - NYY, TB, MN, Hou, Oak, ATL, WAS, STL, MIL, LAD - 6 of top 10

2021 - TB, BOS, NYY, CHW, Hou, ATL, MIL, STL, SF, LAD - 7 of top 10

List of television stations in North America by media market - Wikipedia

Lots of large market repeats.  Lots of small market "one and done" types.  A few exceptions like NYM and TB.  And most notably, the KC World Series in 2015.  

The fact that the smaller market teams are even here is a credit to their system and leadership.  (And big market teams have adjusted to their game and aren't trading away young talent like they used to either.)

Vegas and the odds makers disagree as well.  Large markets dominate the top and small markets dominate the longest odds.  Yes, exceptions...  (Sorry for the various source links, I had trouble finding preseason odds from year to year...)

Chalk - Complete list of 2018 MLB win totals and odds for playoffs, division and World Series (espn.com)

2019 World Series odds for every MLB team (247sports.com)

2022 World Series odds: Dodgers, Yankees, Astros among favorites to win Fall Classic next year - DraftKings Nation

15 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

Competitive balance is a good thing and it's what players want. Players want to hit FA and have 30 different teams interested in their services, rather than three or four. But the players have seen that "competitive balance" translates to penalizing teams for spending in the form of a tax that goes into the owners' pockets and usually stays there. I can appreciate that the Yankees and the Brewers have very different revenue streams. However, the CBT on the Yankees' payroll isn't allowing the Brewers to catch up to the Yankees in spending. What it's doing is letting the Brewers get away with a $100 million payroll by saying "Well, obviously we aren't going to be in the same neighborhood as the Yankees."

Funny you happen to use the Brewers, because they have been in the playoffs the last 3 legit playoffs (excluded 2020).  

Fix the CBT and revenue sharing to better align with actual competitive balance instead of providing a minimum wage that owners pocket.  Having a payroll 'floor' is what many suggest as a solution, but I don't think that will play out as we would hope either.  No one wants to see Brett Gardner or Jake Arrieta hang on longer than they need to on a fringy/losing team...  I'd rather see a AAAA type player fill that void because of the hope for a better tomorrow.  (And it would probably mess with the hoped for "competitive window" of small market teams too.)  That's why I tend to favor a hard salary cap.  Different teams will be differently profitable and that's where owners will disagree.  And the MLBPA are hard core against a hard cap.

It's tough to really get a read on attendance trends even before 2020.  But there are only three teams who have set attendance records since 2015:  Dodgers and the Pirates (first playoff push in years) and Royals (World Series).  8 teams since 2010.  For perspective on the recency bias of the records, the second oldest date was 1990 (Oakland) and the oldest was 1976 (Cincy).  Most of the records were in the 90's-10's range.

Major League Baseball attendance records - Wikipedia

MLB ratings: 2021 World Series television ratings improve, still long-term concerns for baseball (sportsnaut.com)

 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I agree.  The whole 'the players are the product' misses the fact that for MOST fans, their loyalty and viewership is to the TEAM, not to the individual players.  I LOVED Mussina, but once he put on the Yankees uniform I quit watching him or following his career really.  I'm an Orioles fan first, the players are a VERY distant second.  And I think that's true with most, though certainly not all, baseball fans.  Basketball fans seem a bit different as it's a much more player driven league IMO.  

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

When I was a kid, the players were Heroes to me. They were special and many spent their whole careers mainly with one team and lived in the city in the off season and became part of the community.

Once fee agency hit, loyalty was to the almighty dollar and not to the team or fans. Now don't get me wrong, I'm for free agency and the players opportunity to make as much money as they can and the days of Charlie Finley giving his star a $1000 a year increase in salary after they won the World Series are thankfully long gone.

Saying that, I root for the guys wearing the Orioles uniform because I'm a fan of the team. I've never rooted for an ex-Orioles if he left the team. 

Sure, do I like when the player are good guys like Mancini or Mullins, absolutely. But I never rooted against surly Erik Bedard when he pitched for the Orioles. 

Players are commodities and when they leave, another guy replaces him and sometimes outdoes what they did. I don't have a favorite Oriole anymore because I'm not 10. If a player needs to be traded or let go because it's what's best for the team, I Iook forward to rooting for the guys who are acquired.

Now this isn't to say I'm pro owner here. I'm just saying that you could wipe out the major league players and put in minor league players and I'd root for the ones with the Orioles across the chest. 

Put let's face it, the owners are looking at this from a complete business prospective. They think wiping out April games for the potential gains in negotiations is worth it because they just think the fans are lemmings that will just come back when it starts back up. 

Some, maybe even most will, but think they are underestimating the anger of fans right now. Baseball should be a diversion away from all the crap happing in our country with out of control inflation, high gas prices, interest rates climbing, and an unsettled political world suddenly. Instead, we are going to get cancelled games.

It's disgusting.

[NCRaven]

If the choice is money to the players or money to the suits, I want money to go to the players.  Owners deserve a reasonable return on their investment, but I pay to watch the players play the game, whether they play for the Orioles or against the Orioles (takes two teams to play a game).  You shouldn't have socialism for ownership and serfdom for the players.  Just my opinion.

[osfan83]

BTW, I think of MLB as one company with 30 divisions within it. It has to be, if you work for McDonald's they can't legally trade you to Burger King for a burger flipper to be named later.

Each owner is sort of a division manager, looking to get what is best for their area of responsibility. A real commissioner would be like the CEO, makin the best decision for the entire company. Unfortunately MLB doesn't really have a CEO, so each team is in it for themselves. 

[seak05]

53 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Salary cap, salary floor. What are the issues with this, other than the owners don't want a floor and the players don't want a cap?

And in fact a floor and a cap, both tied to a percentage of revenue/media deals is probably the reasonable compromise. And would improve the overall product.
But the owners already have a defacto cap that they’re refusing to significantly raise, despite increasing revenue, they don’t want a floor, and they don’t actually care about negotiating….which makes comprise difficult.

 

[TonySoprano]

After an 162 game season, the league wants just under 1/2 the teams to make the playoffs because of a proposed deal with ESPN?  Between that and putting advertisements on the uniforms like the NBA or European soccer is absurd, don't care about the money involved.    

One thing made obvious is Jon Heyman is nearly worthless as a reporter.    Maybe Heyman can call John Angelos to get the scoop if they're planning to also bring Pearl Jam orthe Foo Fighters to the Yard this summer to fill the void.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

After an 162 game season, the league wants just under 1/2 the teams to make the playoffs because of a proposed deal with ESPN?  Between that and putting advertisements on the uniforms like the NBA or European soccer is absurd, don't care about the money involved.    

One thing made obvious is Jon Heyman is nearly worthless as a reporter.    Maybe Heyman can call John Angelos to get the scoop if they're planning to also bring Pearl Jam orthe Foo Fighters to the Yard this summer to fill the void.

The Foo Fighters seem kinda edgy for the Orioles.

There is still one member of Steely Dan alive right?

[Sports Guy]

Well they keep going back and forth and are still negotiating.  Not holding my breath but that’s better than nothing.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Sports Guy]

 

[jabba72]

Thats one way to kill tanking is to expand to a 14 team playoff.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

So does the regular season get shortened or are we going to see the World Series played during Thanksgiving. 

[MijiT88]

I have no clue what is going on with the CBA details but NFL.com just came out with their top 100 FA list and most of the players are under 30, coming off their first contract are 25-27 and second are 29-31. I bet something closer to this is what the players want to get towards but never will with the MLB. I know I have said my word or two on it but its just another comparison to think about why they are fighting so hard for certain things. 2 cents over.

[Sports Guy]