How good can the 2022 lineup be?

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Mancinis career OBP is basically league average, I would not say good. Mullins and 

 

Seems like you are cherry picking the best sample for each player plus projecting a couple of career highs. Each projection is not unreasonable on its own but I doubt it all adds up to plus team OBP. I also tend to doubt we are getting Harrison now that we have Odor.

The question is "How good can this lineup be?"   So they are asking for the upside .

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Mancinis career OBP is basically league average, I would not say good. Mullins and 

 

Seems like you are cherry picking the best sample for each player plus projecting a couple of career highs. Each projection is not unreasonable on its own but I doubt it all adds up to plus team OBP. I also tend to doubt we are getting Harrison now that we have Odor.

Honestly, I would more worry about OPS than just strictly OBP. Power plays up at OPACY. OBP is a hard skill to develop and is expensive in FA. Meanwhile, you can find cheap power. 

[Moose Milligan]

Looks like a team with limited OBP skills to me.  They'll have torrid hot stretches and spells where they'll get shut out one night and score one run the next.  

Maybe slightly better than middle of the pack is as good as it can get for that group.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Power doesn’t equal runs.  Hitting homers doesn’t equal runs overall.  Getting on base equals runs.  You can’t score without base runners.

Last year, the Os were 17th in the majors in homers but 26th in runs scored.

 

I just went through this yesterday.  The number of runs we scored per homer was very low.  That’s because we don’t put enough guys on base.   It’s that simple.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

Last year the Orioles were 14th in the AL with 659 runs scored, 12th in OPS in the AL with .705. Those numbers and ranks are not park-adjusted. Both are a long way from league-average. I tend to look at the median -- the #8 team -- rather than the mean, but I doubt it makes much difference. Last year the median team scored 723 runs and had an OPS of .722.  

I'd love to see the Orioles get to the AL median in either category, but think it's very unlikely with the lineup that's being discussed. Some guys will have disappointing seasons. Some will miss time and/or play but be hampered by injuries. Some of the other lower-half offenses are likely to improve, too. 

But this is always a good time for hope to spring. And this year we can hope for an MLB season as well as a better Orioles team.

I agree with this.   I do think improvement is pretty likely.  Probably not enough to get to average, but we can hope for that.  

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Honestly, I would more worry about OPS than just strictly OBP. Power plays up at OPACY. OBP is a hard skill to develop and is expensive in FA. Meanwhile, you can find cheap power. 

I’ll worry about wOBA then, which balances OBP vs. power more accurately than OPS does.   The market isn’t dumb. It knows the value of the different aspects of offense.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Honestly, I would more worry about OPS than just strictly OBP. Power plays up at OPACY. OBP is a hard skill to develop and is expensive in FA. Meanwhile, you can find cheap power. 

No offense but this is a really bad line of thinking and a poor way to build an offense.

Luckily it seems like the Os understand this and are valuing OBP With the younger guys they are drafting and bringing into the organization.

[Yardball85]

3 hours ago, RocBball11 said:

My lineup as of today:

1. Mullins L CF

2. Adley S C

3. Mountcastle R 1B/DH

4. Mancini R DH/1B 

5. Santander S RF

6. Hays R LF

7. Urias R 3B

8 Odor L 2B

9. Mateo R SS

 

Not bad. Here's mine:

CF Mullins

2B Urias

1B Mountcastle

RF Santander

DH Mancini

C Adley

LF Hays

3B Odor

SS Mateo

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No offense but this is a really bad line of thinking and a poor way to build an offense.

Luckily it seems like the Os understand this and are valuing OBP With the younger guys they are drafting and bringing into the organization.

Overall, OPS is a better measure of offense than OBP by itself.   It just isn’t as good as it could be because it puts too much weight on the SLG component.   

[justD]

7 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The starting pitching is a whole different animal,

Yes, this is a thread about hitting, and yes, I'm sure others have noted this, but when commenting about our anticipated SP success or failure, it seems most are not considering the impact AR will have. 

Setting aside his above-average framing skills, I can absolutely foresee him helping raise the level of each and every pitcher with whom he teams up.  

I'm quite sure we saw this impact when Wieters would catch for Tillman.  I really believe Tillman's success depended heavily on MW being there to guide him through jams and particularly to get him through outings when he didn't have his best stuff. 

There are limits, of course, but I can't wait to see how much influence Rutschman's presence has on whatever staff we have in place. 

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Overall, OPS is a better measure of offense than OBP by itself.   It just isn’t as good as it could be because it puts too much weight on the SLG component.   

Lol…you realize that I’m aware of this, right?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol…you realize that I’m aware of this, right?

I would have thought so, but your post suggested that you felt OBP was a better measure than OPS.

[Frobby]

So, league average wOBA last year was .315.  I’ve taken the lineup from the OP and added the Steamer projected wOBA for each player.

1. Mullins CF L .331

2. Hays LF R .326

3. AR     C  S .339

4. Mountcastle 1B  R .337

5. Mancini        DH  R .336

6. Santander    RF  S .323

7. Urias             2B  R .317

8. Odor            3B   L .299

9. Mateo          SS  R .283

That doesn’t look too bad at all.   The problem of course is that these 9 players won’t get all the at bats.   But at least when our regular lineup is on the field, we really only have two below average offensive players.   

[Ohfan67]

If the work stoppage lasts until June, then some of the minor leaguers may be ready for promotion and give the weakest Orioles some competition for at bats and roster spots. 

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, league average wOBA last year was .315.  I’ve taken the lineup from the OP and added the Steamer projected wOBA for each player.

 

1. Mullins CF L .331

2. Hays LF R .326

3. AR     C  S .339

4. Mountcastle 1B  R .337

5. Mancini        DH  R .336

6. Santander    RF  S .323

7. Urias             2B  R .317

8. Odor            3B   L .299

9. Mateo          SS  R .283

That doesn’t look too bad at all.   The problem of course is that these 9 players won’t get all the at bats.   But at least when our regular lineup is on the field, we really only have two below average offensive players.   

Thanks for putting those together. I think not too bad is about right. Only a few below average but zero in the very good/elite range. Looks about average, maybe a little above if you squint.