Trade Bait 2022

[waroriole]

I know people are going to overreact to Lopez blowing two games in a row. Ben kept saying on the telecast that it was great for him to just get back out there right after the blown save, but it was too soon to process for him. I have confidence he’ll bounce back and be a solid contributor. He was never the 0.76 ERA guy he was before the Twins series, but he can definitely be a helpful backend contributor. 
 

I think Bautista ends up the closer before too long. He’s just so dominant 

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

That is what I thought to begin the season but then he went of that streak.   

No matter whether he is a closer or just a reliever he's worth keeping.  I would not trade him.

Why ….relievers are volatile. Especially this one. Trade him if you get a good deal.

[Aristotelian]

9 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Orioles org has been such a dysfunctional mess. Fans have been conditioned to trade anyone that has value for fear they may underperform. Likely not how you turn a perennial loser to a winner. 

Hard disagree. If anything we have been conditioned to keep players past their prime and/or beyond their peak value. We got nothing for Manny and Jones, and spent a ton of money to keep the wrong guys, that's how we got in this mess.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Hard disagree. If anything we have been conditioned to keep players past their prime and/or beyond their peak value. We got nothing for Manny and Jones, and spent a ton of money to keep the wrong guys, that's how we got in this mess.

Of course that was terrible mismanagement, no doubt. But Mullins/Hays/a decent closet are equal to Jones or Manny. 

[owknows]

52 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Of course that was terrible mismanagement, no doubt. But Mullins/Hays/a decent closet are equal to Jones or Manny. 

You know something about these guys we don't know?

[Bahama O's Fan]

Is Tyler Wells trade bait?

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, owknows said:

You know something about these guys we don't know?

Lol *closer, I have been outlawed from an edit button:)

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Is Tyler Wells trade bait?

That would be stupid. 

[Just Regular]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34190043/who-the-move-one-player-all-30-mlb-teams-trade-away-month

ESPN Schoenfield with a broad overview four weeks out.     He makes Oriole-specific guesses of:

NYY demand for Santander (backup to Benintendi for Gallo-Hicks weakness)

TB demand for Mancini as a year later they can use a Nelson Cruz type guy again

CLE demand for Mancini as Schoenfield's #1 Guardians guess.    I think this one is a bad read as he mentions Josh Naylor 1B to OF flexibility and I think that is gone since his knee blew up.

MIA he categorizes as Top 4 team with Rangers-Angels-Mariners as Maybes between Buy-Sell.    These are teams it'll help Elias if they have a few good weeks.    Schoenfield's #1 guess is they end up on Sell, and Pablo Lopez falls in behind Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo for the Dodgers-Blue Jays type teams of the world.

Dombrowski and Preller are the guys gut-level I hope meet Elias asks; Schoenfield guesses PHI adding Gregory Soto and SD adding Josh Bell top wishlist type things, so Lopez and Mancini/Santander other options for that type of contributor.

His BAL writeup:

Baltimore Orioles: Trade away Jorge Lopez

The Orioles just completed their first winning month since August 2017, so while they're stuck in last place in the tough AL East, there is reason for optimism about the club's future for the first time in half a decade. Therefore, they shouldn't necessarily be looking to trade away every veteran with a pulse as in the past few seasons (not that they've had many of those). Trey Mancini, for example, has trade value and has a mutual option for $10 million in 2023, but he's a popular player and still a key member of the lineup. They might want to keep him for next season.

Lopez could also be viewed as part of the future, especially since he's under team control through 2024. But if there's one general rule that guides front offices at this time of year, it's that non-playoff teams should always try to cash in on career seasons from veteran relievers. Lopez has certainly been a revelation after spending most of his career as a starter with an ERA on the wrong side of 6.00. Those additional years of team control also mean the Orioles could actually get a nice prospect or two in return -- although Lopez's although Lopez's may have just dropped a bit after serving up home runs in his past three outings, his first three of the season.

 

 

 

[ScGO's]

I feel like Lyles stock has gone up a tick. Cashner return seems reasonable.  Lopez restoring value as well

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, ScGO's said:

I feel like Lyles stock has gone up a tick. Cashner return seems reasonable.  Lopez restoring value as well

Honestly, I don’t think I would move Lyles for that.

I don’t really like Lyles that much and certainly don’t want him here next year but the Orioles will need innings the rest of this year and they simply don’t have the arms to bring up.  
 

With the young players coming up, I think it would be good to have a pitching staff that can at least keep you in games.  Starters that can give you 5-6 innings, etc…this pitching staff has the potential to completely crumble or it could hold up just enough to keep the team respectable.

They are going to have to shut down Wells or reduce his role from what Hyde is saying.  They aren’t likely going to put a lot of innings on Hall’s arm the rest of the year.  Bradish is an unknown.  Kremer?  We still don’t know what is there.  ZImmerman will be back up but he has the same question marks as Kremer.

Its going to be Harvey and Lyles as guys you can probably expect 4-7 innings a start and hopefully keep you within striking distance (say allow 4 runs or less) for most of their starts.  
 

The pen will get worse (unless some bigger arms are moved there and they thrive) but again, if they can be good enough, that’s ok.

[Sports Guy]

Staying on the Lyles trade train..the Os are in a different spot now.  They don’t need to save the money.  They don’t need to add as much inventory as possible because they are so bare.

So, while I would deal Lyles, I need the trade to be more significant than Cashner.  The Os can afford to be a little pickier and I think that is what they should be doing.

[vab]

I don't see them trading Lyles for what anybody would likely be willing to give up for him. They brought him in to eat innings and they still need that - even more if Wells is shut down. 

[now]

With props to whoever posted the Bill James analysis of WS winners by position, it's pretty clear that:

--Lopez should be a top target for playoff-bound teams.

--The O's top target in return should be a starter, preferably lefty. 

The next most valuable top-tier position for WS teams per James is catcher, so glad we have that in the fold already. Next is RHP, and then 1B (Mountcastle) and CF (Mullins/Hays), so again the prime trade priority for O's future WS success should be Lopez for a LHP (or RHP) starter. 

My guess is closer is the most volatile position to rank year-to-year, so we need to strike while the iron is hot (Lopez '22) and we're not in contention ourselves.

Here's the whole list (average ranks of the players starting for World Championship teams, by position, over 40-year sample):

Closer                                7.9
Left-Handed Starter       10.2
Catcher                            10.8
Right-Handed Starter     11.1
First Baseman                  11.1
Center Fielder                  11.5
Second Baseman            11.8
Third Basemen                12.4
Shortstop                         12.5
Left Fielder                       12.7
Right Fielder                     13.2

[Just Regular]

I'd never seen that James article before, but wonder if Mariano Rivera stretches the 1976-2016 period like Barry Bonds stretching "NL LF" average positional rankings back in the day.

I feel 2020's pitching a good deal different even then 5-10 years ago.   Was Nick Anderson, Peter Fairbanks or Diego Castillo the Closer for the Rays who almost leveraged the short season to the finish line?    Smith, Minter or Matzek last year?

It'd be nice if Jorge Lopez was Mariano Rivera, but gonna guess he'll be a little short.