Which of the remaining Free Agents are the best fit for the O's?

[Aristotelian]

Thinking outside the box here... What if due to the lockout the price on Correa drops. Offer him a massive 1 year deal where he gets to bet on himself hitting in Camden Yards similar to Semien's deal. We get a prime season from him without blocking anybody or getting us into anything long term. He gets to be the big prize in next year's free agency class. At some dollar amount it is worth it for him to take a one year deal and bet on himself to get a long term deal next year. What is that dollar amount? 

[Pickles]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Thinking outside the box here... What if due to the lockout the price on Correa drops. Offer him a massive 1 year deal where he gets to bet on himself hitting in Camden Yards similar to Semien's deal. We get a prime season from him without blocking anybody or getting us into anything long term. He gets to be the big prize in next year's free agency class. At some dollar amount it is worth it for him to take a one year deal and bet on himself to get a long term deal next year. What is that dollar amount? 

What does that do for the Orioles?

[Just Regular]

I've buried Correa hopes but think its been clear since Lindor signed that Correa would be the best FA for the 2022-2030 Orioles available in the 2022 or 2023 FA classes.   His Elias history made him a fun windmill to tilt at, and too bad he didn't get any Adley/Grayson MLB wooing last summer.

In terms of climbing the division and putting a star on the 2023 infield, Xander Bogaerts opting out is the next daydream.   He won't be a SS much longer, but that's what Henderson and Westburg's young knees are for.

I believe Lindor will bounce back but if not maybe we could get a nice Second Buyer opportunity with Cohen paying him down some.   If Westburg really does progress towards that JJ Hardy kind of thing, you know that's going to give Buck some feels.

The Lindor Mets teams I think will be fine, but I am eager to see if Dombrowski-Bryce can save themselves.   Current Phillies are my favorite 2023 summer buy trade scenario for Adley's first good team.   I believe Elias will bolster rosters more with trade than $$$, especially if we are as poor as some say.

8.1.2023 CF Mullins, RF Harper, 2B Bogaerts, 1B Mountcastle, C Adley, LF Cowser, 3B Mayo, DH Kjerstad, SS GH or JW.   Trade Philadelphia enough (2022 1-1?) maybe you can get Wheeler or Nola too.

Last contingency - Tatis shoulder DNA just isn't there, and the Adley Orioles become the team Manny thought the Tatis Padres were.  Preller's SP plays better work out for him in 2022 or that situation could get awfully interesting.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Thinking outside the box here... What if due to the lockout the price on Correa drops. Offer him a massive 1 year deal where he gets to bet on himself hitting in Camden Yards similar to Semien's deal. We get a prime season from him without blocking anybody or getting us into anything long term. He gets to be the big prize in next year's free agency class. At some dollar amount it is worth it for him to take a one year deal and bet on himself to get a long term deal next year. What is that dollar amount? 

Have you heard about them moving the left field wall back?

Even if everything else about this was workable what RH hitter is going to take that risk with no concrete data on how it's going to effect hitting?

[Pickles]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

So, you are kind of all over the place here.  I will address each point and remember, that the conversation is being done within the context of the idea of adding Correa.

1) I would sign Correa and would want the Os to sign him if it was for 7 or less years.  That's my max.  Since that contract won't happen, this is all a moot point but hey, its a discussion board, so wtf.

2) Yes, the Rays went from 66 wins.  They didn't go from 60 or less.  They are the closest and perhaps the only example to do it in ONE YEAR, which is what I was saying.  I agree that it can happen in 2 years although even those examples aren't plentiful.  That being said, my point is that if you end up going into 2023 after just winning 60 games, I don't feel its realistic to think they are contending in 2023 and my goal would be to contend in 2023.  I think its absurd to head into 2023 hoping to be a 80ish win team at best.

2a) If they increase the number of playoff teams, it may mean 88ish wins gets you in the playoffs and that could change things some.  Right now, the odds aren't with you that you can win 60 games or less and get in.  Even if you want to go to 65 wins, its still unlikely.

3) Again, your predictions mean nothing.  They literally bring nothing to the conversation.  Your rationale there doesn't mean anything so again, I don't get why you are bringing it up but congrats, you did well with your predictions.  Go upstairs and make sure you tell your mom and have her pat you on the back.

The overall point is this...If the team went out and signed Correa, it should speed up their own timeline.  It should also cause them to make a further move or 2 for the 2022 team.  If you signed him, my expectation would be that you could/should be a 75ish win team and that you are in great position to contend in 2023.  I do not feel that having another season similar to what we have seen, even if its accompanied by 5-10 more wins will do that and my goal is contention in 2023, again especially if you sign Correa.

By the end of 2022, a lot of this young talent should be up seeing time.  Combine that with an elite talent like Correa and a ton of payroll flexibility long term and 2023 sets up as a potentially great season for the organization.  The idea that it is "a year early" is meaningless.  You get talent when you can get it.  The rest will fall into place.  

 

And again, next offseason isn't good for free agency and the offseason after that isn't good either unless Manny opts out and would you really go pay him huge money at that point?  So, how are you adding real talent?  Trading a bunch of prospects for it?  Always an option but I am guessing many would cry about that one and you obviously need the players to keep developing to have the value to land the top guys.  So, thats a risk as well.

At this point, Correa is probably your best chance at landing an elite talent at a youngish age.  So, if he would sign here for a deal that makes sense (which he won't) and if you believe in your young talent, which I am guessing you do, signing him now is a smart move.

 

Narrowing the scope of our conversation and focusing it back on a possible Correa acquisition:

I don't think our parameters are far off on the kind of contract we'd hand him.

I'd go like 8/250.  Maybe even 10/300 with a frontloaded contract.  Only because I agree he's an exceptional case that doesn't come around often.

He almost certainly won't sign here for that.

The answer isn't then to go spend 30 million a year on 3 mediocre free agents.

It's to keep the course.  Even if that means you don't "compete" in 2023.

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Narrowing the scope of our conversation and focusing it back on a possible Correa acquisition:

I don't think our parameters are far off on the kind of contract we'd hand him.

I'd go like 8/250.  Maybe even 10/300 with a frontloaded contract.  Only because I agree he's an exceptional case that doesn't come around often.

He almost certainly won't sign here for that.

The answer isn't then to go spend 30 million a year on 3 mediocre free agents.

It's to keep the course.  Even if that means you don't "compete" in 2023.

 

Do you ever turn on the gas?  Are you fine with kicking it down the road another year indefinitely?

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you ever turn on the gas?  Are you fine with kicking it down the road another year indefinitely?

You don't hit on 16 just to feel good.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You don't hit on 16 just to feel good.

What if the dealer has a seven showing?

What if the rebuild never hits on all cylinders?  Do you keep going, well if this guy and that guy pan out we can add to that next offseason forever?  At some point do you tear it all down again and start from scratch or do you muddle along at 70 wins?

 

Now I'm not saying sign Correa and I don't think he'd sign here anyway.

But at some point the O's are probably going to have to hit on 16.

I don't think they can win with a pair of eights, not at this table.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You don't hit on 16 just to feel good.

No, you hit on 16 because the odds say you do when the dealer is showing 7-ace.  It’s called basic strategy.

And let me tell you this…the entire division is showing 7-ace.

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What if the dealer has a seven showing?

What if the rebuild never hits on all cylinders?  Do you keep going, well if this guy and that guy pan out we can add to that next offseason forever?  At some point do you tear it all down again and start from scratch or do you muddle along at 70 wins?

 

Now I'm not saying sign Correa and I don't think he'd sign here anyway.

But at some point the O's are probably going to have to hit on 16.

I don't think they can win with a pair of eights, not at this table.

Well, let me say, I object to the idea that I'm willing to kick the can "indefinitely."

I expect the Orioles payroll to increase as they develop better players and as a consequence win more.

I do not expect the payroll increase by signing external FAs.  I largely support this because signing external FAs has proven time and again a poor way to build a baseball team.  There are exceptions and Correa could be one of them.  Again, it's why I'm willing to entertain the idea.

I simply have a further horizon than a few of you.  I think just as many people, and apparently the FO as well, share my perspective, as agree with yours and others.

This arbitrary idea that we must be "competing" in 2023 is not something I agree with.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, you hit on 16 because the odds say you do when the dealer is showing 7-ace.  It’s called basic strategy.

And let me tell you this…the entire division is showing 7-ace.

I thought using the division we play in to alter strategy was an "excuse" and "cowardly?"

[Can_of_corn]

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, let me say, I object to the idea that I'm willing to kick the can "indefinitely."

 

You object to me asking if you were fine with it?

Because that's what I did.

I inquired.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I thought using the division we play in to alter strategy was an "excuse" and "cowardly?"

No, saying we can’t compete because of our division is an excuse and cowardly.   That doesn’t mean you don’t consider the division you are in…and in fact, many of my arguments do just that.
 

Look, if you want to try to “get me”, you could at least make an attempt to represent my arguments correctly.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, let me say, I object to the idea that I'm willing to kick the can "indefinitely."

I expect the Orioles payroll to increase as they develop better players and as a consequence win more.

I do not expect the payroll increase by signing external FAs.  I largely support this because signing external FAs has proven time and again a poor way to build a baseball team.  There are exceptions and Correa could be one of them.  Again, it's why I'm willing to entertain the idea.

I simply have a further horizon than a few of you.  I think just as many people, and apparently the FO as well, share my perspective, as agree with yours and others.

This arbitrary idea that we must be "competing" in 2023 is not something I agree with.

The FO shares your perspective because it’s what ownership wants.

If the lockout ended tonight and they signed Correa and added a good starter tomorrow, there is no way you would be on here bashing them.