Melewski on Mike Baumann

[wildcard]

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/12/sizing-up-one-2022-rotation-candidate.html

I agree with his last statment:  "But the numbers he put up in the second half of 2021 should have reminded us that Big Mike can still be a big part of the O’s future."

[Frobby]

The numbers he put up in Baltimore are what worry me.   Including his velocity numbers.   He was not impressive, especially against our AL East opponents.   But, it was a tiny sample size.   Hopefully he comes back rested and better.   

[wildcard]

As Melewski points out Baumann's July and August were impressive.   I think that is his springboard into 2022.

[Sports Guy]

You can take some solace is how he pitched in the minors towards the end of the year but pitching 22 good innings at AA at age 25 (a few months/weeks before his 26th birthday) isn’t really something to hang your hat on.

AAA is a little better but it’s such a SSS that it really doesn’t have a ton of meaning.

What Melewski said is right..what you take away from 2021 is that he actually pitched, was healthy and had good velocity.  
 

Beyond that, I don’t think we can read a ton in anything.  I mean, he looked dreadful in the majors and my worry isn’t the results as much as his stuff wasn’t that good.  Is that his regular stuff going forward post injury?  That has to be the worry.

Add on to the poor stuff we saw to the idea that he has always had more of a reliever profile than a starter profile and I think it’s fair to say that the odds are he ends up a reliever at best.

[Aristotelian]

I give him a pass on his MLB size in only 10 innings. In his AA/AAA, walks were up but so were K's. Overall 1.146 WHIP and 3.4 ERA were good numbers suggesting continued development. He earned his promotion and we'll see what he can do next year. 4.00 ERA/1.25 WHIP would be good target numbers for him at the next level and that would make him about league average. 

[Sports Guy]

That’s a lot better than average.

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

As Melewski points out Baumann's July and August were impressive.   I think that is his springboard into 2022.

The numbers in AAA the last few starts were fine, but what concerns me was the statcast numbers with his stuff at the major league level.

Everything was just blah. He was mostly fastball slider with only a 4.1 MPH difference in speed. That's not good at all. The curveball can be ok at times but he rolls it too much and he lost the feel for the changeup, becoming an uncompetitive pitch for him. He averaged just 93.6 MPH on his fastball despite pitching in short stints in relief so we didn't even see the bump in velocity expected when pitching in relief.

Most of his movement on pitches were well below average and his fastball had very little arm side run making it pretty straight and without a lot of spin rate. It was not an impressive pitch.

But honestly, this is who he was most of the year as he looked like a shadow of the pitcher that he was two years ago when it looked like he was ready to blossom into a starting pitching prospect.

The hope is with another offseason off his stuff will come back because the guy I saw last year is not only not a major league starting pitcher, he may not be an average major league reliever.

By the way, the fact that he's the "No. 10 (prospect), via MLBPipeline.com. And that outlet puts 60 grades on his fastball and slider" should tell you everything you need to know about that outlet for prospects evaluation.

A 94 MPH fairly straight fastball is not a major 60 fastball. His slider had -5% vs avg vertical movement a 3% vs avg movement horizontally. With basic average movement overall but a high velocity of 89.5, I would probably call that pitch 55 when adding in his sporadic command of the pitch. His 21.2 WHIF% on the pitch is not great.

 

[Tony-OH]

By the way, here's more information on Baumann's injury in 2020.

https://www.inovanewsroom.org/expert-commentary/2016/09/outside-the-strike-zone-what-is-a-flexor-mass-strain/

You would think he would have recovered by 2021 if you read through this but he certainly was not the guy I saw in 2019 in 2021. 

Hopefully another offseason of rest will bring the old Baumann back, but he's probably heading to relief either way.

[Aristotelian]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s a lot better than average.

League average is 4.26/1.29. Is 4.00/1.25 "a lot" better? 

[wildcard]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The numbers in AAA the last few starts were fine, but what concerns me was the statcast numbers with his stuff at the major league level.

Everything was just blah. He was mostly fastball slider with only a 4.1 MPH difference in speed. That's not good at all. The curveball can be ok at times but he rolls it too much and he lost the feel for the changeup, becoming an uncompetitive pitch for him. He averaged just 93.6 MPH on his fastball despite pitching in short stints in relief so we didn't even see the bump in velocity expected when pitching in relief.

Most of his movement on pitches were well below average and his fastball had very little arm side run making it pretty straight and without a lot of spin rate. It was not an impressive pitch.

But honestly, this is who he was most of the year as he looked like a shadow of the pitcher that he was two years ago when it looked like he was ready to blossom into a starting pitching prospect.

The hope is with another offseason off his stuff will come back because the guy I saw last year is not only not a major league starting pitcher, he may not be an average major league reliever.

By the way, the fact that he's the "No. 10 (prospect), via MLBPipeline.com. And that outlet puts 60 grades on his fastball and slider" should tell you everything you need to know about that outlet for prospects evaluation.

A 94 MPH fairly straight fastball is not a major 60 fastball. His slider had -5% vs avg vertical movement a 3% vs avg movement horizontally. With basic average movement overall but a high velocity of 89.5, I would probably call that pitch 55 when adding in his sporadic command of the pitch. His 21.2 WHIF% on the pitch is not great.

 

Tony, How does Baumann get a 2.00 ERA and a 1.148 WHIP at AAA with the mediocre stuff you are describing?

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tony, How does Baumann get a 2.00 ERA and a 1.148 WHIP at AAA with the mediocre stuff you are describing?

AAA hitters are not major league hitters.

Feel free to stay on the lollipop guild of prospect evaluation or you can actually believe someone who will tell you the truth whether its what we want to hear as an Orioles fan or not.

Your choice. But please don't disrespect me here and suggest I don't know what I'm doing or talking about. 

And even if you don't trust my scouting, maybe look at the actual data provided in statcast and then look at how it compares to successful major league pitching. 

Yes, that's lot of work, but instead, just quote some AAA stats and Melewski's rainbows and sunshine outlook. 

 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

AAA hitters are not major league hitters.

You trying to suggest I'm lying to you or I suck at scouting? Believe what you want. Baumann, the #10 prospect in the organization with plus fastball and slider. Roger that!

 

I would NEVER suggest that.  I do think what he had going in AAA in August he did not have in Sept in Baltimore.

[Frobby]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

AAA hitters are not major league hitters.

You trying to suggest I'm lying to you or I suck at scouting? Believe what you want. Baumann, the #10 prospect in the organization with plus fastball and slider. Roger that!

 

I’m not a scout, but his stuff we saw at the end of the year didn’t look good.   It wasn’t just the poor results.   All we can do is cross our fingers and hope that with a winter of rest his stuff looks better next year.   

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

AAA hitters are not major league hitters.

You trying to suggest I'm lying to you or I suck at scouting? Believe what you want. Baumann, the #10 prospect in the organization with plus fastball and slider. Roger that!

 

Seemed like a legitimate question. This board is really heading in an unpleasant direction. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

League average is 4.26/1.29. Is 4.00/1.25 "a lot" better? 

A lot?  Probably not but .25 run is significant.  
 

That being said, what is that league average based off of that you are citing?  How many innings?  Was it those who qualify? Only 38 pitchers qualified for the ERA title during the season.  It appears that the average ERA for those guys is better than 4.26.  But as you start to reduce the innings limit that changes quickly.