BA: Os have 5 top 100 prospects

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, Absltgreek said:

• Parlay (Severna Park, MD): Were there any Orioles (like Coby Mayo or Jordan Westburg) who came close to making the list?

J.J. Cooper: I mispoke earlier now that I've checked our ballots. While Westburg wasn't a guy we talked about as far as making the top 100 (among the last names we discussed) he did rank 107th overall in our balloting. So he was close. If Geoff Pontes has his way Mayo would be on the 100 right now.

Interesting, because Cooper told Melewski that nobody on the O’s was close to being in the top 100 and Westburg probably would have been 125-150.   https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2022/01/still-no-1-rutschman-leads-five-players-on-ba-list.html

[MCO'sFan]

19 hours ago, Absltgreek said:

• Jeff (Atlanta): How is Coby Mayo not in this top 100? You have 2020 Zac Veen , amd Mayos # are much better, am I missing something other then Veen was 1st rounder ? Not hating on Veen but stating facts

Kyle Glaser: Veen played a full season at Low-A. Mayo played in the complex leagues and 27 games of Low-A at the end of the season. The level of competition they faced is hugely different, and frankly not comparable.

Can't argue with this but I am very excited to see how Mayo does this year. I'm dreaming on a left side where both Gunner and Mayo reach their potential. WOW!

[LookinUp]

11 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I never said anything about why he started late, or that the O's didn't handle him well (they did, all I said is that they took things slowly). My point is that Mayo didn't face tough competition. That's not his fault or the O's fault, but we have to take the level of competition into account when evaluating his performance.

It's kind of a funny position though.

Rankings are not just a reflection of performance against competition. There's this tiny element, a thing referred to as scouting, that is kind of important.

I can't blame these national guys for not getting as many eyes on guys like Mayo or talking to as many folks as Tony has, but there's a pretty clear blind spot here IMO. It's not that age/level/performance don't matter, they very much do, but the scouting report does too.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It's kind of a funny position though.

Rankings are not just a reflection of performance against competition. There's this tiny element, a thing referred to as scouting, that is kind of important.

I can't blame these national guys for not getting as many eyes on guys like Mayo or talking to as many folks as Tony has, but there's a pretty clear blind spot here IMO. It's not that age/level/performance don't matter, they very much do, but the scouting report does too.

These rankings are largely bs in many ways.  A lot of them jus re-affirm draft status, where they were picked, etc…

This is why I have said we don’t need to focus on top 100 guys to determine if a trade is successful.  If I were dealing with the Os and I know the top 2 are off limits, Mayo is #1 on my target list and he isn’t even a top 10 Os prospect on some peoples list, much less a top 100 guy overall.

 

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

These rankings are largely bs in many ways.  A lot of them jus re-affirm draft status, where they were picked, etc…

This is why I have said we don’t need to focus on top 100 guys to determine if a trade is successful.  If I were dealing with the Os and I know the top 2 are off limits, Mayo is #1 on my target list and he isn’t even a top 10 Os prospect on some peoples list, much less a top 100 guy overall.

 

Yep, Mayo's the perfect illustration. If he rakes in the first couple of months, it will be interesting to compare him to Cowser, Kjerstad and the #1 overall pick this year. 

It's good times in the minors forum these days.

[RZNJ]

12 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I never said anything about why he started late, or that the O's didn't handle him well (they did, all I said is that they took things slowly). My point is that Mayo didn't face tough competition. That's not his fault or the O's fault, but we have to take the level of competition into account when evaluating his performance.

Well we can look at Henderson's first 2 months and Mayo's last month and compare because they both faced the same competition at some point last year and Mayo certainly doesn't get hurt by that comparison.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Well we can look at Henderson's first 2 months and Mayo's last month and compare because they both faced the same competition at some point last year and Mayo certainly doesn't get hurt by that comparison.

They are both very promising prospects.   We have a little more information on Henderson than we do on Mayo.  I think Mayo may prove to have the slightly better bat, Henderson has more versatility with the glove.   I see them as very close and we’ll certainly learn more as 2022 proceeds.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They are both very promising prospects.   We have a little more information on Henderson than we do on Mayo.  I think Mayo may prove to have the slightly better bat, Henderson has more versatility with the glove.   I see them as very close and we’ll certainly learn more as 2022 proceeds.

 

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They are both very promising prospects.   We have a little more information on Henderson than we do on Mayo.  I think Mayo may prove to have the slightly better bat, Henderson has more versatility with the glove.   I see them as very close and we’ll certainly learn more as 2022 proceeds.

Absolutely and I hope they both do well.  Henderson's swing and miss is a little bigger concern than Mayo's swing and miss for me but Henderson has probably got the edge with defensive ability.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

Absolutely and I hope they both do well.  Henderson's swing and miss is a little bigger concern than Mayo's swing and miss for me but Henderson has probably got the edge with defensive ability.

Very fair.  When analyzing or comparing prospects, a lot of humility is required.   Prospects change a lot from year to year and how their skills will translate as they move up the chain and eventually to the majors is always uncertain.   It’s one of the reasons it’s so fun to follow them!

[DocJJ]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Badly?

Three of those guys helped the O's make the playoffs.

Two of them made All Star games.

I'm guessing that's probably a pretty typical return.

Not sure I agree.  None of these guys had the career I had hoped for, including Wieters.  I'd argue Tillman probably exceeded my expectations more than any of the others...  Tillman and Wieters may have "helped" the O's make the playoffs- but those teams had Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis (the home-run hitting version), Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop and many others...  

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Very fair.  When analyzing or comparing prospects, a lot of humility is required.   Prospects change a lot from year to year and how their skills will translate as they move up the chain and eventually to the majors is always uncertain.   It’s one of the reasons it’s so fun to follow them!

On one hand I want to totally agree. I'm a huge believer in offseason non-field work. Millions of drills, focused fitness, etc.

On the other hand, I think offseason development may be reaching a point of diminishing returns just because people are doing all of that stuff as younger players.

Think of a guy like Henderson. To my untrained eye, his swing needs adjustment and his footwork when throwing does too. Seems like two things that could make massive improvements in the 4-6 month offseason when he doesn't have a full game schedule to fall back on bad habits. At the same time, he's been in this org a couple of years now and it makes me wonder what they're going to try that they haven't already.

As you say, this makes it fun to follow them, but I don't want to get my expectations too high because massive changes in profiles for physically mature people just don't seem that likely to me.

[Tony-OH]

23 hours ago, Absltgreek said:

• Parlay (Severna Park, MD): Were there any Orioles (like Coby Mayo or Jordan Westburg) who came close to making the list?

J.J. Cooper: I mispoke earlier now that I've checked our ballots. While Westburg wasn't a guy we talked about as far as making the top 100 (among the last names we discussed) he did rank 107th overall in our balloting. So he was close. If Geoff Pontes has his way Mayo would be on the 100 right now.

Geoff Pontes is a smart man.  

Obviously I agree with his optimism with Mayo. Mayo may have more upside with the bat then anyone in the system including Adley.

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I never said anything about why he started late, or that the O's didn't handle him well (they did, all I said is that they took things slowly). My point is that Mayo didn't face tough competition. That's not his fault or the O's fault, but we have to take the level of competition into account when evaluating his performance.

He faced the same level of competition as Henderson did in Delmarva and had a better average, and plate discipline and no platoon advantage while being a year younger. 

I like Henderson, but he's got to settle down on defense at SS where he makes way too many easy errors and he needs to show he can hit left-handers. So far that's been a struggle for him. 

The jury is still out on whether Mayo can handle 3B, but there's just as many questions on whether Henderson can stay at SS, especially as he fills out and gets bigger. 

Obviously I like Mayo a lot and was very impressed by his debut season even if it was a little short due to the early leg injury. I like Henderson as well, but just not quite as much as others because I just see some things that are yellow flags for me when it comes to struggles against left-handers and positional question marks.

[Tony-OH]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

Interesting that Cooper likes Henderson’s glove better.   

Henderson has better arm strength and a little more range than Westburg at SS, but Westburg has the better hands and was more steady on the everyday play. If you go off of raw tools than Henderson would get the edge but overall glove, I'd take Westburg at SS over him right now but Westburg is two years older.