BA: Os have 5 top 100 prospects

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Incredible stat:

 

That's not surprising at all. There were some starts last year where he threw all four pitches for strikes with WHIFF. His stuff is the best in the organization when he's commanding it and healthy. And yes, I said in the organization including the majors. He just has to stay healthy and keep improving his command. 

[George Zuverink]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That's not surprising at all. There were some starts last year where he threw all four pitches for strikes with WHIFF. His stuff is the best in the organization when he's commanding it and healthy. And yes, I said in the organization including the majors. He just has to stay healthy and keep improving his command. 
 

Saying someone has better stuff than any Baltimore major league pitcher could be considered damning with faint praise.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

He faced the same level of competition as Henderson did in Delmarva and had a better average, and plate discipline and no platoon advantage while being a year younger. 

Just picking nits here (you know I love to do that), but I’d argue that the level of competition at a given level is probably higher in the first 1-2 months than in the last month, because a lot of the better players get promoted.   But in any event, I do agree that Mayo’s performance in Delmarva compared favorably to Henderson’s, though both were good.   I even posted a thread about it during the season.  

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Just picking nits here (you know I love to do that), but I’d argue that the level of competition at a given level is probably higher in the first 1-2 months than in the last month, because a lot of the better players get promoted.   But in any event, I do agree that Mayo’s performance in Delmarva compared favorably to Henderson’s, though both were good.   I even posted a thread about it during the season.  

 

Or you can argue the second half of the season saw the college draft picks and the talent was higher. Judging by Delmarva, they were much stronger prospects wise by the end of the year then they were earlier in the year.

[Frobby]

Melewski interviewed JJ Cooper about the choice of Rutschman at no. 1 and some other comments about his game.   Here are a few quotes I selected.   There’s more in the article.

“We talked about the difference in run values for a right fielder versus a shortstop, versus a catcher. That was part of the discussion,” Cooper told me during a phone interview. “But then also, it gets complex in other ways. I would expect Adley Rutschman to play fewer games per year than the other candidates for No. 1. Because he’s a catcher and catchers often and generally don’t play as much. You don’t want to wear them out and also they are at a higher risk of injury, so that played a factor. And that works against Rutschman for No. 1.

“But then you see the other side which is, right now, if you look around baseball and you say who is the best shortstop in the game? There are several candidates. Someone may say Fernando Tatis Jr., while someone else could say Carlos Correa or Corey Seager. You get down the list a little bit and there a lot of guys you might like. You can say the same of corner outfield. Then you start discussing catcher, especially now that Buster Posey has retired. You start running out of guys that can both hit and play (top) defense really quick and that is a factor in this discussion. I don’t have the full answer to this, but is Adley more valuable than a top shortstop or corner outfielder prospect because it is much harder to find a player that can do what he does?”

* * *

“With Rutschman, the thing that came up over and over is he has such a good approach and you don’t see catchers with that approach. You don’t see switch-hitting catchers with that approach. So the overwhelming kind of consistency of why do all these teams love Rutschman as a prospect, that’s a big reason why,” said Cooper.

* * *

“If there is any concern, and it’s not some thinking he’s going to be a bust or anything like that, but nitpicking with Rutschman, his swing from the left side, evaluators don’t think it’s as good as his swing from the right side,” Cooper said. “And that’s going to be the side from which he is going to bat most of the time. So it will be interesting to watch his left-handed swing in the majors. Again, the evaluators you talk to, the teams we have talked to, they don’t say anything like, ‘He’s going to get smoked versus right-handers.’ It’s more, that swing, it’s a steep swing. So that could be something that he needs to make an adjustment on.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2022/01/jj-cooper-on-what-kept-adley-rutschman-at-no-1.html

 

[jamesenoch]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/here-are-15-players-who-just-missed-the-top-100/

Westburg comes in at #107

"Jordan Westburg, Orioles: Though Westburg did not have a tremendous amount of fanfare coming out of Mississippi State, the 2020 supplemental first-round pick made his presence known in 2021. Climbing three levels of the minors, Westburg hit .285/.389/.479 with 47 extra-base hits across 506 plate appearances. His overall numbers were heavily inflated by his production at both levels of Class A, and his 30-game Double-A sample was uneven. The infielder should return to Bowie to start 2022, where he’ll look to replicate his Class A production. With some of the best plate discipline of any player that just missed the Top 100 list, Westburg has a strong chance of moving onto the back end in the next update."

[jamesenoch]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/12-breakout-prospects-with-top-100-potential/

"Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles

A well over-slot signing in the fourth round of the 2020 draft for $1.75 million, Mayo stayed back in the Rookie-level Florida Complex League as a 19-year-old in 2021 as the Orioles played it conservatively with him coming off a knee injury in the spring. He was so good in the FCL that the Orioles pushed him to Low-A Delmarva, where he hit .311/.416/.547 in 125 plate appearances. Coming off the knee injury, Mayo didn't look his best defensively, and at 6-foot-5, 215 pounds, there's some risk he ends up at first base. There's also a chance his offensive impact will be good enough to carry him at either spot. For a young, long-armed hitter, Mayo is able to keep his strikeouts in check, has a mature offensive approach and raw power that is at least plus and could end up higher with physical maturity."

[jamesenoch]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/five-players-who-could-rise-up-the-top-100-prospects-in-2022/

"Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
Top 100 Rank: 98

The fifth overall pick in the 2021 draft, Cowser hit .354 in a decorated college career at Sam Houston State and continued to rake with a .375/.490/.492 slash line in his brief pro debut. While he put up those numbers in a mid-major college conference and his pro debut came against complex league and Low-A competition, there is little doubt he will hit at higher levels with his sweet lefthanded swing, exceptional strike-zone discipline and growing power. Add in plus speed and a chance to stay in center field, and Cowser has the attributes to rise quickly as long as he continues to prove he can hit against more advanced pitching, with a strong likelihood that he will."

[jamesenoch]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ranking-the-best-pitches-in-the-top-100/

"1. Grayson Rodriguez (FF, SL, CB, CHG)—Simply put, Grayson Rodriguez’s pitch mix is on another planet. His four-seam fastball has average movement, but he ranks third in average fastball velocity for pitchers on the Top 100, along with the third highest whiff rate on his fastball at a mark of 37%. His slider generates whiffs at a 40% rate, while landing in the zone at an above-average rate. His curveball is one of the top three curves on the list, as he was one of two pitchers in the top 100 with a curveball that had both a strike rate above 60% with a whiff rate above 50% (Cade Cavalli was the other). The changeup, however, might be Rodriguez’s best pitch. He has the only changeup on the list with a true negative IVB, meaning he has an innate ability to kill lift, or ride, on the pitch. This unique movement profile allows the pitch to generate good outcomes at a high rate as Rodriguez boasts the only changeup in the top 100 with both a strike rate above 65% and a whiff rate above 45%. It’s Rodriguez’s command of his plus stuff that sets him apart from other pitching prospects.

3. D.L. Hall (FF, SL, CB, CHG)—Unfortunately, injuries robbed us of a full season from Hall in 2021, because when Hall is healthy he boasts some of the best lefthanded stuff in baseball. Case and point, Hall is the only pitcher on this list with four different pitches with whiff rates above 40%, meaning every pitch in Hall’s arsenal has the ability to miss bats at a high rate. His fastball is the only heater on this list with a whiff rate of 40% or above, and he showed the ability to get the pitch in the zone, with a strike rate just a hair below 70%. It’s the combination of plus velocity and a flat approach angle that drives results on Hall’s fastball, as he has the flattest approach angle of pitchers on this list that averaged 97 mph or above on their fastball. Batters were helpless against his four-seamer even when they did make contact, batting just .119/.246/.186 against it in his brief 2021 season. While Hall’s primary secondary as an amateur was a curveball, his slider and changeup have become equally important parts of his arsenal. His curveball still misses bats, and hitters had the lowest slash line against the pitch of any in his mix, but his command is better on both his changeup and slider,  meaning the curveball’s utility is primarily as a chase pitch. His slider, on the other hand, was one of six sliders on the list with a strike rate of 60% or above and a whiff rate of 40% or above. His changeup was hit the most of his quartet of pitches, but also drove the most whiffs, while seeing an average strike rate. In closing, Hall has an easy plus fastball that is metrically double-plus, with a trio of strong secondaries that miss bats. It's just a matter of sustained health and improved strike-throwing on his curveball and changeup."

 

 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, jamesenoch said:

The changeup, however, might be Rodriguez’s best pitch. He has the only changeup on the list with a true negative IVB, meaning he has an innate ability to kill lift, or ride, on the pitch. This unique movement profile allows the pitch to generate good outcomes at a high rate as Rodriguez boasts the only changeup in the top 100 with both a strike rate above 65% and a whiff rate above 45%.

Confirmation bias kicking in a bit, but this is the kind of tidbit that fuels the hype train.    The April 2019 Melewski report about Grayson learning from Josh Tomlin that offseason was peculiar and exciting.   Texas prep hosses seeking that kind of knowledge as teenagers....I doubt Josh Beckett or Kerry Wood did that sort of stuff.   To see the 2021 pitch data bearing that out...next step is seeing if he can make Wander Franco look bad.

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/04/showing-off-new-changeup-grayson-rodriguez-is-rolling-at-delmarva.html

I hope he has a supply of AAA balls as I imagine he starts ramping up his throwing sessions the next few weeks.   

I wouldn't mind if MLB furnished a distraction by having and televising Grapefruit games on schedule in March among whatever players happened to be allowed to be there.   Temporary exclusion of the MLB 40-man rosters is a feature, not a bug...let's dominate March!

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, jamesenoch said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ranking-the-best-pitches-in-the-top-100/

"1. Grayson Rodriguez (FF, SL, CB, CHG)—Simply put, Grayson Rodriguez’s pitch mix is on another planet. His four-seam fastball has average movement, but he ranks third in average fastball velocity for pitchers on the Top 100, along with the third highest whiff rate on his fastball at a mark of 37%. His slider generates whiffs at a 40% rate, while landing in the zone at an above-average rate. His curveball is one of the top three curves on the list, as he was one of two pitchers in the top 100 with a curveball that had both a strike rate above 60% with a whiff rate above 50% (Cade Cavalli was the other). The changeup, however, might be Rodriguez’s best pitch. He has the only changeup on the list with a true negative IVB, meaning he has an innate ability to kill lift, or ride, on the pitch. This unique movement profile allows the pitch to generate good outcomes at a high rate as Rodriguez boasts the only changeup in the top 100 with both a strike rate above 65% and a whiff rate above 45%. It’s Rodriguez’s command of his plus stuff that sets him apart from other pitching prospects.

3. D.L. Hall (FF, SL, CB, CHG)—Unfortunately, injuries robbed us of a full season from Hall in 2021, because when Hall is healthy he boasts some of the best lefthanded stuff in baseball. Case and point, Hall is the only pitcher on this list with four different pitches with whiff rates above 40%, meaning every pitch in Hall’s arsenal has the ability to miss bats at a high rate. His fastball is the only heater on this list with a whiff rate of 40% or above, and he showed the ability to get the pitch in the zone, with a strike rate just a hair below 70%. It’s the combination of plus velocity and a flat approach angle that drives results on Hall’s fastball, as he has the flattest approach angle of pitchers on this list that averaged 97 mph or above on their fastball. Batters were helpless against his four-seamer even when they did make contact, batting just .119/.246/.186 against it in his brief 2021 season. While Hall’s primary secondary as an amateur was a curveball, his slider and changeup have become equally important parts of his arsenal. His curveball still misses bats, and hitters had the lowest slash line against the pitch of any in his mix, but his command is better on both his changeup and slider,  meaning the curveball’s utility is primarily as a chase pitch. His slider, on the other hand, was one of six sliders on the list with a strike rate of 60% or above and a whiff rate of 40% or above. His changeup was hit the most of his quartet of pitches, but also drove the most whiffs, while seeing an average strike rate. In closing, Hall has an easy plus fastball that is metrically double-plus, with a trio of strong secondaries that miss bats. It's just a matter of sustained health and improved strike-throwing on his curveball and changeup."

 

 

These reviews are absolutely mouth-watering.   I pray that Hall can stay healthy.   

[LookinUp]

To summarize the Rodriguez write up...his fastball is awesome. Top 3ish in the list. And his next 3 pitches are better. Whoa.

To summarize Hall. If he pitches, he's a beast. Just throw strikes young man.

Just glowing stuff there.

BTW, if Gunnar Henderson actually ends up a better prospect than any of these guys, 1, I'll be surprised a bit but 2, it's fabulous news.

[Sports Guy]

Yea, those are some of the best write ups you will ever see about a minor league pitcher.

 

[jamalshw]

This thread isn't good for keeping my optimism in check. You read the write ups and feel like we have a 1 and 1A in Rodriguez and Hall that can carry this team as it transitions from rebuilding to rebuilt. But...from years and years of disappointment, I try to catch myself, particularly with Hall as I fear he turns into a Hunter Harvey situation.

All that to say, if Rodriguez and Hall can both develop into something close to what many expect, we have a nice foundation of a rotation, particularly if one or two of the likes of Lowther, Bradish, Baumann, Zimmermann, Akin, Kremer, etc. can develop into anything. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, jamalshw said:

This thread isn't good for keeping my optimism in check. You read the write ups and feel like we have a 1 and 1A in Rodriguez and Hall that can carry this team as it transitions from rebuilding to rebuilt. But...from years and years of disappointment, I try to catch myself, particularly with Hall as I fear he turns into a Hunter Harvey situation.

All that to say, if Rodriguez and Hall can both develop into something close to what many expect, we have a nice foundation of a rotation, particularly if one or two of the likes of Lowther, Bradish, Baumann, Zimmermann, Akin, Kremer, etc. can develop into anything. 

In many ways I think DL Hall is the potential lynchpin of our return to contention.  We expect Rutschman and Rodriguez to be studs.  Sure they could be derailed, like any prospect, but the risk profile seems good for both.  With Hall, he could be a good TOR starter, a shutdown reliever. a pitcher who shows flashes but struggles with control, or the next Hunter Harvey.   There’s a super high ceiling but a ton of risk.   I feel like the baseball gods owe us this one.