5 Orioles in top 81 of Keith Law's Top 100 prospects

[MurphDogg]

Keith Law released his top 100 prospect list.

1. Adley Rutschman

14. Grayson Rodriguez

52. Colton Cowser

73. Gunnar Henderson

81. D.L. Hall

The ranking that sticks out is Rodriguez at 14 which is lower than other lists, but that mostly appears to mainly be a function of Law being more conservative in ranking pitchers than others. He has Rodriguez as the third pitcher after Shane Baz (7) and Hunter Greene (12). He is effusive in his praise of Rodriguez but points out that the Orioles haven't really taken the governor off of Rodriguez.

"Rodriguez’s 2021 stat line is just comical: He struck out 161 batters in 103 innings across High A and Double A, good for a 40.4 percent strikeout rate, which was the highest of any pitcher in the full-season minors last year. He walked just 27 batters, was hard to hit, and only gave up 10 homers. He couldn’t have dominated any more given the way that Baltimore used him."

"As I’ve written before, the Orioles have heavily restricted Rodriguez’s usage, so that he’s never thrown more than 100 pitches in a pro game, and in 2021 he never threw more than 89. Will the stuff be different when he’s planning to throw 95-105 pitches every time out, and might face hitters three times? We’re still just speculating. That’s not his fault, though, and his performance last year was unimpeachable. "

[LTO's]

I'm really pleased to hear his thoughts on Henderson, specifically defensively. Essentially to him, it remains to be seen if Gunnar can stick at short but he gave him a 70 grade at third which I will take in a heartbeat. If Westburg can handle a JJ Hardy type role of steady SS defense with some occasional flashes with the stick, Henderson's package of plus power, plus plate discipline and 70 grade defense will more than play.

Also, like most evaluators, he thinks Hall has top of the rotation stuff and athleticism. Obviously health is a gigantic question mark with him and reason for the low rank, but Law does not give top of the rotation labels to hardly any pitching prospects.

[Can_of_corn]

Didn't KLaw have an issue with Rodriguez's delivery in prior years?  Has he changed it?

[RZNJ]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Didn't KLaw have an issue with Rodriguez's delivery in prior years?  Has he changed it?

He did have issues with it and really was not high at all on Rodriguez two years ago.  I think he had him pegged as a reliever.   I do remember him being impressed by the velocity he generated  without what he considered a good delivery.   I think it had to do with using his lower half (legs) in the delivery back then.   I think the Orioles made some adjustments in that department but you would think that Law would address it one way or the other.

[MurphDogg]

59 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He did have issues with it and really was not high at all on Rodriguez two years ago.  I think he had him pegged as a reliever.   I do remember him being impressed by the velocity he generated  without what he considered a good delivery.   I think it had to do with using his lower half (legs) in the delivery back then.   I think the Orioles made some adjustments in that department but you would think that Law would address it one way or the other.

He is doing a Q&A at 1 PM today, I will raise that question.

[MurphDogg]

12 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

He is doing a Q&A at 1 PM today, I will raise that question.

My question:

A couple of years ago, you mentioned that Grayson Rodriguez had reliever-risk due to his delivery. Have there been notable changes in his delivery or does he still have that risk?

Law's response:

Delivery is almost exactly the same, but the risk level does go down when a pitcher shows he can stay healthy and throw strikes with a delivery that offers those questions. For the record, saying a guy has "reliever risk" isn't saying he WILL be a reliever, just that it's a possibility. I don't think that's the case with G-Rod any more.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

My question:

A couple of years ago, you mentioned that Grayson Rodriguez had reliever-risk due to his delivery. Have there been notable changes in his delivery or does he still have that risk?

Law's response:

Delivery is almost exactly the same, but the risk level does go down when a pitcher shows he can stay healthy and throw strikes with a delivery that offers those questions. For the record, saying a guy has "reliever risk" isn't saying he WILL be a reliever, just that it's a possibility. I don't think that's the case with G-Rod any more.

Sounds like the long way to say   "Never Mind".

[MurphDogg]

More from the chat:

Hi Keith, excellent write up as always.

The Orioles have what sounds like an absolute sure-thing and future MVP candidate who should be in the majors shortly. They're also The Orioles. If you're running that organization and you're as far from competing as most people assume you are... what does having a prospect of that caliber mean to you?

@James G. I think it means it's time to step on the gas and build around him. They have a strong core of hitting prospects that's not too far away. If not this winter, then next winter they need to invest in outside talent. That system has gone from awful to very good in a three-year span, but they aren't building an entire championship roster from within, especially with nothing coming soon from the international free agent market.

Hey, Keith! Great list and write up. This O's fan was glad to see 5 representatives. Wondering about a 6th in Coby Mayo. How far outside do you have him? Some outlets have him positioned to make a big jump this year like Gunnar Henderson in 2021.

 

@Josh M. Good prospect, surprised a lot of scouts with the performance this year, he'll be in the top 10 when my Orioles top 20 runs next week.

Also:

The Orioles have a player on the Just Missed list

That list runs tomorrow, per the chat. 

[Can_of_corn]

I'm waiting for him to declare the system 10th overall because reasons.

[MurphDogg]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm waiting for him to declare the system 10th overall because reasons.

His team rankings will run on Monday. I will be sure to update this thread.

[Frobby]

Well, posters have always complained about Law (1) having some bias against the Orioles, and (2) being unwilling to change his opinions even once contrary evidence develops.   His list and comments on Rodriguez show that neither criticism is really warranted.   

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, LTO's said:

I'm really pleased to hear his thoughts on Henderson, specifically defensively. Essentially to him, it remains to be seen if Gunnar can stick at short but he gave him a 70 grade at third which I will take in a heartbeat. If Westburg can handle a JJ Hardy type role of steady SS defense with some occasional flashes with the stick, Henderson's package of plus power, plus plate discipline and 70 grade defense will more than play.

Also, like most evaluators, he thinks Hall has top of the rotation stuff and athleticism. Obviously health is a gigantic question mark with him and reason for the low rank, but Law does not give top of the rotation labels to hardly any pitching prospects.

He gave Henderson a 70 grade for defense? That's absurd if he did. 

[LTO's]

30 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He gave Henderson a 70 grade for defense? That's absurd if he did. 

"At shortstop, Henderson looked perfectly capable, but at third base he was easily plus, maybe a 70 defender. He may not hit for much average with his current swing, but with 25-plus homers, some on-base skills, and elite defense at third base."

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

"At shortstop, Henderson looked perfectly capable, but at third base he was easily plus, maybe a 70 defender. He may not hit for much average with his current swing, but with 25-plus homers, some on-base skills, and elite defense at third base."

Not sure Henderson has shown the hands to be a 70 defender anywhere on the dirt, but I do feel he will end up an above average defensive third baseman. I don't however see a future Manny Machado unless his hands and throw accuracy really improve.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Not sure Henderson has shown the hands to be a 70 defender anywhere on the dirt, but I do feel he will end up an above average defensive third baseman. I don't however see a future Manny Machado unless his hands and throw accuracy really improve.

Yeah, 70 sounds a bit crazy.   But I’ve been heartened by the fact that numerous outside observers have made favorable comments about his defense, even though statistically he was pretty error-prone last year.   Good to know he’s not just a bat.