Poll: If Tyler Wells will be stretched out, who will be closer?

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

IMO Lopez inconsistency is not in his stuff, its between his ears.   There was not good reason he could not pitch in the 5th inning but he had a mental problem with it IMO.   There is no way to know if he can close other than letting him try.

I don't think you know that for sure. I've never heard anything about his makeup other than good things. I think it had a lot more to do with he just gets fatigued after 50 pitches. His walk rates sky rocketed up after 50 pitches so even though he had good velocity, his ability to command starts to flutter as he fatigues. 

I think he's a classic example of guy who's been pigeon holed into a role he wasn't set out to do because the stuff suggests starter because of the amount of quality pitches he can throw.

I think he's going to surprise some people out of the pen, the place I was hoping they would move him to all year last year.

[Aristotelian]

I think Lopez is garbage. Walks a lot and does not get K's. 94-95 isn't enough to overcome command issues and lack of a great out pitch. I am fine with giving him one last shot as a one inning guy but let him start in lower leverage and work his way up. Starting him as closer when we have Sulser just seems insane. 

[wildcard]

Lopez had a 6.48 ERA and a 855 OPS in the first inning last year.  Will it be any different if his first  inning is the ninth?

I agree that his stuff look nasty at times but I think that its questionable that he is a closer.

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Lopez had a 6.48 ERA and a 855 OPS in the first inning last year.  Will it be any different if his first  inning is the ninth?

I agree that his stuff look nasty at times but I think that its questionable that he is a closer.

I think it's hard to compare the 1st inning with the 9th inning. 

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think it's hard to compare the 1st inning with the 9th inning. 

The 9th does add a lot more pressure.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

The 9th does add a lot more pressure.

Well I'm just saying, in the 1st inning he knows he's got a whole start ahead of him. If he's pitching in relief, he's letting everything fly instantly. You can't really compare one inning of a start to one inning of a relief appearance.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Lopez had a 6.48 ERA and a 855 OPS in the first inning last year.  Will it be any different if his first  inning is the ninth?

I agree that his stuff look nasty at times but I think that its questionable that he is a closer.

This is a very small sample size, but:

Split	                G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1st PA in G, as SP	25	224	194	23	53	9	1	4	0	1	24	50	2.08	.273	.368	.392	.760	76	7	5	1	0	0	0	.350	79	118
2nd PA in G, as SP	25	212	184	28	52	11	0	12	0	0	23	38	1.65	.283	.373	.538	.911	99	7	4	0	1	2	0	.296	110	143
3rd PA in G, as SP	20	85	76	18	31	8	0	3	0	0	6	14	2.33	.408	.447	.632	1.079	48	0	1	0	2	0	0	.459	150	176
1st PA in G, as RP	8	33	31	3	6	0	0	2	0	0	2	10	5.00	.194	.242	.387	.630	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	.211	44	74

I've already discussed the jump in stuff in relief in my previous post.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I think Lopez is garbage. Walks a lot and does not get K's. 94-95 isn't enough to overcome command issues and lack of a great out pitch. I am fine with giving him one last shot as a one inning guy but let him start in lower leverage and work his way up. Starting him as closer when we have Sulser just seems insane. 

Lopez was 96-98 in relief last year and struck out 10 of the 33 batters he faced in that role. Small sample size for sure, but if that's garbage, I wish the Orioles had a lot more garbage pitching for them in the bullpen this year.

So pitching him at closer over a guy with a career 68% save percentage is insane? You and I have different definition for insane. 

I don't know if Lopez can handle the pressure of being a closer because it's really tough to know until a pitcher does it at the major league level. But I do know and have shown in a previous post that Sulser pitches much better in non save situations than save situations. It's not INSANE to suggest another option over him because he's struggled in his chances with that role.

 

[btdart20]

@Tony-OH You make a good case for Lopez.  The bump in velo and movement is critical for relief success.  I do think Sulser gets the nod first and it goes from there.  

Very small sample in 2021 for Lopez the reliever.  His relief FIP was 4.61 with a .211 babip.  Perhaps some regression.  Solid WHIP in his 8.1 IP of relief.  33% of inherited runners scored.  Having trouble finding league/historic averages, but Sulser led the team with a 31.4% (at least of those who qualified).   I do like his 5.7 LA in 2021.  Not quite Brittonesqeu (-7 career), but better than Sulser's 14+. 

Lopez sinker was about league average last year on the whole.  It would have to be better in relief to make it worthwhile...

[maybenxtyr]

Sulser is a safe choice to start the season. 

 

Tanner Scott would have Phillip living on the edge... anyone know what happened to him?

[now]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Add in the fact that Sulser has blown 32% of his save chances, and pitched to a 2.52 ERA in non save chances vs 4.66 in save chances in his major league career, and I think Sulser is a better setup guy than closer as well.

I'm pretty sure most of those terrible outings happened when he was pitching with that low-grade ankle injury; 2021 would be a fairer indicator of his success. 

[ScGO's]

I would go with Lopez.  I think his stuff will play well in the closer role. Probably has better "stuff" than Sulser

I like Sulser a lot though, but with his CH being his best pitch he can get lefties out just as good as a LHP.  I feel like this makes him more valuable as a situational reliever/set up guy

[waroriole]

6 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

Sulser is a safe choice to start the season. 

 

Tanner Scott would have Phillip living on the edge... anyone know what happened to him?

I looked him up the other day. Hasn’t posted in about a month. Hope he’s ok. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, now said:

I'm pretty sure most of those terrible outings happened when he was pitching with that low-grade ankle injury; 2021 would be a fairer indicator of his success. 

Nope, his save percentage last year was not good.

[now]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Nope, his save percentage last year was not good.

Okay, glad to know. So much for the unresearched "eye test" (or good old selective memory--I wanted him to be better!)