What is Elias' plan to contend and what should it be?

[connja]

you guys are so tiresome.  I came here to read about the O's getting better and instead all I see is bickering.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

11 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Here are the options for how to build as I see them:

Dodgers Model: Build a great farm system but don't be reliant on it. Add huge talent from the outside and let the farm fill the gaps/make trades.

Astros Model: Build a great farm system, make big trades for big guys, see progress, add a couple of FA and win. Then resign your own.

Rays Model: Build a great farm system, use it to build a good team. Trade guys at peak value. Resign very few. Acquire very few big FAs.

If we're implementing more of the Rays model than any others, the window starts in something like 2025 where our guys are not just here, but also mature major leaguers.

If we could do something closer to the Astros or even Dodgers model, we'd spend more sooner but have an actual chance to compete in 2023 and 2024. 

It seems to me like this is not an Astros plan, it's a Rays plan, and thus a 2025+ plan.

Excellent post. Biggest factor is when Peter passes sadly, so might end up being the closest plan (Tampa 2025)

[geschinger]

24 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Excellent post. Biggest factor is when Peter passes sadly, so might end up being the closest plan (Tampa 2025)

Hybrid Tampa/Houston plan. Resign more players than TB does but much less likely to do things like the Verlander extensions.

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, hutchead said:

Okay, so one or two years - whatever it is. It just seems like three years because you hijack every thread here with the same old talk. No, not everything is identical to that time frame but the most important part is the same - and that's your absurd insistence that we sign free agents that give us 15 more wins a season just so we're more "presentable." I could care less if we're more presentable if we still aren't a .500 team. Especially if it costs us the draft picks we need to finally get out of this conundrum. 

To be clear, signing a few free agents probably wouldn’t get us 15 more wins.   They cost $8 mm/win on average.   You might do a little better if you choose well, or worse if you choose poorly or have bad luck with injuries.   

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, connja said:

you guys are so tiresome.  I came here to read about the O's getting better and instead all I see is bickering.

There will probably be less bickering if the team actually starts to show improvement.  

[Too Tall]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There will probably be less bickering if the team actually starts to show improvement.  

We can only dream - but I wouldn't bet on it!!!!! 

[interloper]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

There will probably be less bickering if the team actually starts to show improvement.  

I love your optimism!

[DrungoHazewood]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

There will probably be less bickering if the team actually starts to show improvement.  

You do remember that one of the longest threads of the 2014 season (reference: 96 wins, division title) was arguing about whether they should completely tear it down in June, sell everyone at the deadline, and try to reload the right way for 2018 or 2020 or whatever?  2013 was the team's second best record this century up to that point and the universal mood here that entire year was Why Does God Hate Us?!?

[Il BuonO]

15 hours ago, connja said:

you guys are so tiresome.  I came here to read about the O's getting better and instead all I see is bickering.

Does it matter at all that the team actually has to be better first before that happens?

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You do remember that one of the longest threads of the 2014 season (reference: 96 wins, division title) was arguing about whether they should completely tear it down in June, sell everyone at the deadline, and try to reload the right way for 2018 or 2020 or whatever?  2013 was the team's second best record this century up to that point and the universal mood here that entire year was Why Does God Hate Us?!?

Oh, I remember well.

The best Orioles team of the century had about half the fan base screaming for a tear down and a rebuild.

Well, here we are.

And half the fan base is screaming for mediocre FAs to "compete" for 72 wins.

The moral of the story: People are very, very stupid.

[Aristotelian]

16 hours ago, Barnaby Graves said:

I've become a complete fairweather fan and I'm not ashamed of it.  I used to follow this team to the degree that I would get excited about the progress of, like, Brandon Erbe or something.

Elias' plan to contend should be to go 29-9 in 1-run games and 16-2 in extra inning games.  That was a neat trick for the 2012 team.  I think every single fringe player found a way to win at least one game by themselves in miraculous fashion, Taylor Teagarden won at least two, and the bullpen had a collective career year.  Duquette could hardly miss on his signings and there was always a 26th man coming up to deliver something big.  And he wasn't afraid to deploy Machado at age 19 if he thought it could help the team, or make constructive moves like Guthrie for Hammel/Lindstrom pre-season and then Lindstrom for Saunders in August.  There was a core there, of course, but he made moves that largely paid off.

Elias' rebuild is so grinding and deliberate that I guess the plan is to knock the door down all at once with the Orioles' minor leaguers in 2024, but I haven't seen much of Duquette's talent/luck for bringing in a few smaller pieces at a time to build to a greater whole.  For the last few years the roster could basically be described as baseball's debris, and the talent promoted from within is sometimes pretty good but mostly abject failures to launch.  Which doesn't give me a whole lot of hope you're going to see these guys get thrown into it in 2023 and 2024 and succeed, and not much hope Elias has the ability to supplement.

So yeah wake me when it starts working I guess.

Just remember, 2012 came from out of nowhere. No big signings, just guys maturing plus a lot of luck. Imagine, we won a playoff game with Joe Saunders pitching against Yu Darvish. Reminded me so much of the '89 team that was also super fun to watch even though they fell short of the playoffs. Maybe I am just following it more closely this time but I feel like Elias has been way more systematic about the rebuild than either of those teams. If it happens again for us I feel like it would be the result of patience and strategic approach rather than crazy luck and chemistry.

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You do remember that one of the longest threads of the 2014 season (reference: 96 wins, division title) was arguing about whether they should completely tear it down in June, sell everyone at the deadline, and try to reload the right way for 2018 or 2020 or whatever?  2013 was the team's second best record this century up to that point and the universal mood here that entire year was Why Does God Hate Us?!?

I don’t remember that, relatively speaking compared to now.   The board is always going to have its share of pessimism, gloom and bickering, but it’s always worse when the team is bad or playing poorly.   I can barely stand to read the board whenever a losing streak exceeds 3 games.