Joey Ortiz 2022

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Was it a choice?

No.  Ortiz was drafted in 2019 and Watson in 2021. 

I was really just floating a pipeline comparison.  MLB has Watson #7 in the MIA org.  Ortiz is #18 in the O's org.  I'll take our #18 guy hands down over their #7.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

No.  Ortiz was drafted in 2019 and Watson in 2021. 

I was really just floating a pipeline comparison.  MLB has Watson #7 in the MIA org.  Ortiz is #18 in the O's org.  I'll take our #18 guy hands down over their #7.

Right. To be fair, Ortiz has be top ten right now.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

No.  Ortiz was drafted in 2019 and Watson in 2021. 

I was really just floating a pipeline comparison.  MLB has Watson #7 in the MIA org.  Ortiz is #18 in the O's org.  I'll take our #18 guy hands down over their #7.

Well, we also have a deeper and better organization, so 18 in Baltimore isn’t the  same as other systems. 
 

That said, I get your basic point and don’t disagree with you.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Sports Guy

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right. To be fair, Ortiz has be top ten right now.

I'm just the messenger...    MLB updated their list in August 2022 after the draft.  

Ortiz is top 10 in my book. 

Tier 1:  Gunnar, Grayson, Jackson, Cowser are top 4. 

Tier 2:  Hall and Mayo are 5/6. 

Tier 3:  Ortiz and Povich are 7/8.

I have guys like Westburg and Norby in the next tier.

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I'm just the messenger...    MLB updated their list in August 2022 after the draft.  

Ortiz is top 10 in my book. 

Tier 1:  Gunnar, Grayson, Jackson, Cowser are top 4. 

Tier 2:  Hall and Mayo are 5/6. 

Tier 3:  Ortiz and Povich are 7/8.

I have guys like Westburg and Norby in the next tier.

Interesting about Mayo.  He’s young and has the power but plate discipline and position for me are an issue.  Overall, a disappointing year for him, IMO.   He’s dropped some as far as I’m concerned.

[nvpacchi]

Norfolk in its day game today dropped 14 runs, and I was licking my lips to see the box score and how much damage Ortiz did.

Alas, he got the day off, but his spirit animal carried on!

[btdart20]

29 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Interesting about Mayo.  He’s young and has the power but plate discipline and position for me are an issue.  Overall, a disappointing year for him, IMO.   He’s dropped some as far as I’m concerned.

Mayo is chalk there.  Tier 2 has the massive upside and downside.  Mayo is still young for his level and his frame/swing reminds me a bit of Thome.  Not many prospects (even in our wildest dreams) the dream of hitting 40 HR.  Mayo is one of those few with that type of dream.  Hopefully (as Elias says), the punch in the face that Mayo is getting to close out AA is a motivator!  Age 21 at AA?  Yes, please.  

To bring it back on thread:  I don't see Ortiz with the same type of downside as Mayo or Hall.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Mateo is arbitration eligible this off-season so there will soon be a financial aspect as well.

I would rather trade Mateo, put the $2-3M that Mateo will make over the minimum salary towards a free agent starting pitcher, and roll with Urias, Henderson, Vavra, Ortiz and Westburg in the mix for 2nd, SS, 3B and utility going into spring training, with the possibility that all 5 make the Opening Day roster, or one of the latter 3 ends up in AAA.

If the other 4 players look like solid options at the 4 spots, trade Urias before he reaches arbitration eligibility after the 2023 season. By then Mayo and Norby could be in the mix with Holliday close behind and guys like Wagner, Young and Bencosme hopefully making cases for themselves as well.

I don't think Vavra is good enough defensively to hold a position (even a utility position) on this team.   He is ready offensively for the majors but will have a hard time getting at bats with the 2023 O's.   I think Elias trades him for a younger minor leaguer over the winter.

Mateo, Urias, Henderson, Westburg and Ortiz are all stronger players.   I want to see what Westburg can do at 1B and LF as a backup.  He is supposed to have above average speed and a strong arm which may play in an OF corner and he is 6'3 which  gives him a good wing span for 1B.    Don't know what Elias thinks of that.

Ortiz is a slick fielder with great hands but probably does not have the range that Mateo and Henderson have at SS.  Range will be a big deal going forward with the rule changes.  I need to see more.   JMO.

Edited September 15, 2022 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

S

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Vavra is good enough defensively to hold a position (even a utility position) on this team.   He is ready offensively for the majors but will have a hard time getting at bats with the 2023 O's.   I think Elias trades him for a younger minor leaguer over the winter.

Mateo, Urias, Henderson, Westburg and Ortiz are all stronger players.   I want to see what Westburg can do at 1B and LF as a backup.  He is supposed to have above average speed and a strong arm which may play in an OF corner and he is 6'3 which  gives him a good wing span for 1B.    Don't know what Elias thinks of that.

Ortiz is a slick fielder with great hands but probably does not have the range that Mateo and Henderson have at SS.  Range will be a big deal going forward with the rule changes.  I need to see more.   JMO.

I don’t know about the range but Henderson and Mateo probably have the stronger arms.  Defensively, Henderson (3B), Mateo (SS), Ortiz (2B) seems optimal.  Experts have said Henderson could be a GG 3B.  Mateo has played a GG level SS this year.  Tony thinks Ortiz is GG caliber at 2B.   If Mateo would just hit, it makes a lot of sense.  Then we figure out where to play or what to do with Westburg (I brought up 1B weeks ago btw), Norby, and Urías.

As for Vavra, he’s still a potential starting LF table setter at the top of the lineup but his odds of being a nugget have gone down.  

[MurphDogg]

Yeah, we haven't seen much from Vavra yet but I haven't completely given up hope that he could be a starting leftfielder, second baseman or super utility player that doesn't play shortstop but doesn't kill you anywhere he plays.

[Ridgway22]

Joey Ortiz continues to intrigue.....

Over his last 62 games, which is 38% of a 162 game season, (a "sample", but not super small):

.365 / .436 / .639 / 1.075

Extrapolated to 162 game pace:

230 hits, 157 runs scored

52 doubles, 5 triples, 37 homers, 141 RBI

402 total bases, 16 stolen bases, 3 caught stealing

 

As to defense, scrolled back through this thread looking for Tony's comments, as I trust his opinion more than any of the "National" publications when it comes to O's prospects:

Aug 3.

Defensively he's the best defender at SS and 2B in the system (minus Holliday since I haven't seen him). 

Aug 15.

In my mind he's got better hands than Mateo but a little bit less arm. they're about the same range wise though when it comes to covering ground on pop flies, Mateo will get the edge because of his 80 level speed. 

As good as Ortiz is at short, he might be a perennial gold glover at 2B. 

Sept 9.

Ortiz to me is every bit the defender that Mateo is with maybe a tad less arm, though Ortiz's arm is solid major league average for a SS.

Sept 10.

Ortiz is a plus defensive SS and could very well be a gold glove 2B. Ortiz's significant defensive plusses makes him a better overall prospect for me than Westburg.

 

 

[nvpacchi]

Ortiz's 'coolish' finish to the year where he OPS'd .763 over his final 11 games prevented 3 straight months at a 1.000 OPS, but he still had a sterling September with a .955 OPS.

July OPS - 1.112

August OPS - 1.018

September OPS - .955

Since July 1st:   323 PA   .352/.416/.610 /1.026   .258 ISO   174 wRC+   9.9%/13%  BB/K rate (this maybe my favorite stat)

33%  of his career minor league PAs are now comprised of this tear he has been on, which definitely constitutes more than a hot streak.  There had to have been notable adjustments made, and he even said as such in an interview that he was trying to elevate the ball more once his shoulder started healing.  The results don't lie.

Its really hard to find fault in anything he did this year, but the only quibble is his pop-up rate.  1/3 of his fly balls have been recorded as pop-ups this year (Cowser and Henderson for comparison are around in the low teens this year).  Having only seen a few of his at-bats, its tough to comment more on this, but that may be the only thing for him to improve upon, as perhaps he's trying to sell out for power a bit too much.

I'm trying to figure out why Ortiz has me more excited than some of the other prospect breakouts we've seen this year, and we've had a lot.  I think it has more to do with his bucking the current prospect narrative that is still profound in coverage of the game.  Draft pedigree and status still feels to have a large sway into the industry's opinions of prospects, so it is almost like Ortiz had to overcome both his 4th pick status as well as his slightly older age to consistently prove his worth.  Here's hoping he can continue his tear into spring training, and really make it a difficult decision for Elias and co. regarding his opening day status in 2023!

 

 

[nvpacchi]

Coming in with more Ortiz hype.  Eric Longenhagen did his first chat on Fangraphs in what seems like all year - and he has Ortiz moving into the Top 100 for his offseason update!  Also an interesting tidbit about Westburg.

 

Quote

Eric A Longenhagen: Ortiz will be in the top 100 update, Westburg is part of a group of upper-level infielders who defense needs to be re-evaluated in light of the banned shift. What are his realistic defensive homes now that he doesn’t get a lift from the shift? How does he fit there. Guys who shift to 1B/3B, it’s a much higher bar than the MIF

 

[Aristotelian]

On 9/15/2022 at 3:13 PM, btdart20 said:

I'm just the messenger...    MLB updated their list in August 2022 after the draft.  

Ortiz is top 10 in my book. 

Tier 1:  Gunnar, Grayson, Jackson, Cowser are top 4. 

Tier 2:  Hall and Mayo are 5/6. 

Tier 3:  Ortiz and Povich are 7/8.

I have guys like Westburg and Norby in the next tier.

I don't think Hall and Mayo did enough this year to stay in a distinct tier. 

I think my top 10 would be Gunnar, Grayson, Holiday, Cowser, Ortiz, Westburg, Norby, Hall, Stowers, Mayo, Povich

I'd absolutely trade Hall for veteran pitching before any of Norby, Westburg, and Ortiz right now. 

[CharmCityHokie]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't think Hall and Mayo did enough this year to stay in a distinct tier. 

I think my top 10 would be Gunnar, Grayson, Holiday, Cowser, Ortiz, Westburg, Norby, Hall, Stowers, Mayo, Povich

I'd absolutely trade Hall for veteran pitching before any of Norby, Westburg, and Ortiz right now. 

I'm on the exact opposite side of this, I would trade Norby or Westburg out before Hall, Ortiz might cause a pause for me as he plays a premium position. I'm not sure Norby ends up playing an average 2B and Westburg isn't going to be a major league SS. We need pitching, and Hall has had some growing pains this year, but I think he can still be a premium arm.