Joey Ortiz 2022

[RZNJ]

Mateo is a tough decision.  I don't think he's a rising star.    I think he's an exciting player with offensive limitations who is plus defensively at SS.    I would be willing to move him or I would be okay with starting next year with him at SS.    I think we have options at SS with Henderson and Ortiz and I think the idea is to maximize value so I think Mateo has more trade value than Ortiz but Ortiz can probably replace Mateo and might be a better offensive option.   Word is that his defense is comparable.   Is Mateo's value at it's highest point?    I think it's close.   There might be teams out there that buy into a 27 yo with loud tools who, at the very least, is going to provide plus defense at SS and some excitement.   

[ShoelesJoe]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

I like Urias, but man that WAR seems high. Must be a lot from defense like Mateo, because a 3.3 WAR with a sub-.300 OBP is tough to do. 15 home runs is decent though. 

Urias’ OPS is almost a hundred points higher on the road than at home, so don’t be fooled by his overall numbers. If other teams do their homework he should have significant trade value during the off-season. If any or all of Ortiz /Westburg/ Norby / Vavra are going to get a chance for real playing time with us then Urias is probably the odd man out. 

[sportsfan8703]

Ortiz is going to have to half a big first half in AAA next year to really consider moving Mateo, Urias, or Westburg.  I think we enter next season with what we have, and then re-evaluate at the deadline.  It'll work itself out.  

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Ortiz is going to have to half a big first half in AAA next year to really consider moving Mateo, Urias, or Westburg.  I think we enter next season with what we have, and then re-evaluate at the deadline.  It'll work itself out.  

Let me ask you something.  Ortiz has had over a 1.000 OPS since July 1.   His OPS in a SSS in Norfolk is over 1.000.   If Ortiz accumlates over 100 AB's in AAA by the end of the month and his OPS is north of .900 that wouldn't be enough for you to move Mateo or Urias with the idea of having Ortiz be the starting SS or 2B going into next year?     The standards seem to be getting very high when it comes to Joey Ortiz.

Now, there's a good chance you're right about starting next season with Henderson, Mateo, and Urias in the infield and figuring things out as the season progresses.    

Edited September 8, 2022 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let me ask you something.  Ortiz has had over a 1.000 OPS since July 1.   His OPS in a SSS in Norfolk is over 1.000.   If Ortiz accumlates over 100 AB's in AAA by the end of the month and his OPS is north of .900 that wouldn't be enough for you to move Mateo or Urias with the idea of having Ortiz be the starting SS or 2B going into next year?     The standards seem to be getting very high when it comes to Joey Ortiz.

Now, there's a good chance you're right about starting next season with Henderson, Mateo, and Urias in the infield and figuring things out as the season progresses.    

Well, you are head over heels for Ortiz these days, not that I blame you.  One thing we don’t really know is whether his defense is really comparable to Mateo’s. I certainly have the impression that he’s a very solid SS and probably the best defensive SS we have in our MiL system, including Henderson who’s now in the majors.  Still, Mateo is playing top-level major league defense.  That’s a very high standard to meet.   I can’t get the answer to that from BB-ref or Fangraphs.   Somebody who watches Ortiz play every day and who otherwise knows what they’re talking about is going to need to tell me that.   (Paging @Tony-OH…)

On the offensive side, my gut tells me Ortiz will be a higher OBP guy.  He’s not going to turn singles into doubles, doubles into triples or steal 30+ bags a year.  Both players have been better in the second half than the first, though Ortiz remains hot while Mateo has cooled considerably over the last two weeks.   I want to see how the last the few weeks play out.   Gun to my head I think Ortiz will probably be better offensively.  Mateo is very exciting when he’s on base, but he’s not on base enough.  

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, you are head over heels for Ortiz these days, not that I blame you.  One thing we don’t really know is whether his defense is really comparable to Mateo’s. I certainly have the impression that he’s a very solid SS and probably the best defensive SS we have in our MiL system, including Henderson who’s now in the majors.  Still, Mateo is playing top-level major league defense.  That’s a very high standard to meet.   I can’t get the answer to that from BB-ref or Fangraphs.   Somebody who watches Ortiz play every day and who otherwise knows what they’re talking about is going to need to tell me that.   (Paging @Tony-OH…)

On the offensive side, my gut tells me Ortiz will be a higher OBP guy.  He’s not going to turn singles into doubles, doubles into triples or steal 30+ bags a year.  Both players have been better in the second half than the first, though Ortiz remains hot while Mateo has cooled considerably over the last two weeks.   I want to see how the last the few weeks play out.   Gun to my head I think Ortiz will probably be better offensively.  Mateo is very exciting when he’s on base, but he’s not on base enough.  

Tony is very high on his defense.   Ortiz is not a steady J.J. Hardy.  He's a steady J.J. Hardy with the occasionally flashy play.   I know, high praise.   He probably will be a player who makes a few less errors than Mateo.   I love Mateo.  I was championing him as well.   He has frustrated me lately because he's going back to pull mode.  He's not as bad as early in the season but he's also over committing to pulling and swinging at more bad pitches again.    It think Mateo will struggle to get an OPS over .700 over a full season.   Mateo with a .750 OPS is a "star" but I'm skeptical he can maintain the approach he needs to get there.  I think Ortiz is capable of the .800 range along with the good defense.    I probably sound like a broken record.   Ortiz uses all fields (he was pulling a lot early in the season), had power to all fields, doesn't strike out much (this is a very important distinction as most of our minor leaguers trade damage for less contact).    I'm sure you've noticed that Bowie and Norfolk have consistently put him in the #3 or #4 spot in the lineup even when other top prospects are on the team.   Frankly, his 4th round draft status and terrible first half (the labrum surgery after effects are certainly a valid excuse) are keeping him from getting the recognition I think he deserves.     A SS with plus defense, power, and a 1.000 OPS (running on 2 1/2 months) who just turned 24 (missing 1 season to COVID and most of another to labrum surgery isn't generating much excitement.   I guess that's the new Oriole system.

[emmett16]

I really like his all fields approach to hitting.  He has some sneaky pop.  He can absolutely pick it.  I havnt seen the arm on display yet.  Not weak, but haven’t seen that Mateo zing on his throws.  
 

Another hit/rbi tonight in first AB of the game.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

The future looks bright. 

 

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, you are head over heels for Ortiz these days, not that I blame you.  One thing we don’t really know is whether his defense is really comparable to Mateo’s. I certainly have the impression that he’s a very solid SS and probably the best defensive SS we have in our MiL system, including Henderson who’s now in the majors.  Still, Mateo is playing top-level major league defense.  That’s a very high standard to meet.   I can’t get the answer to that from BB-ref or Fangraphs.   Somebody who watches Ortiz play every day and who otherwise knows what they’re talking about is going to need to tell me that.   (Paging @Tony-OH…)

On the offensive side, my gut tells me Ortiz will be a higher OBP guy.  He’s not going to turn singles into doubles, doubles into triples or steal 30+ bags a year.  Both players have been better in the second half than the first, though Ortiz remains hot while Mateo has cooled considerably over the last two weeks.   I want to see how the last the few weeks play out.   Gun to my head I think Ortiz will probably be better offensively.  Mateo is very exciting when he’s on base, but he’s not on base enough.  

Ortiz to me is every bit the defender that Mateo is with maybe a tad less arm, though Ortiz's arm is solid major league average for a SS. Ortiz should be a better hitter than Matteo as well as he'll get on base more and has more opposite field power. Obviously Mateo gets the nod in speed as Ortiz will not be a stolen base threat like Mateo.

Ortiz is the guy who made the biggest jump for me this year as a prospect outside of Henderson.  He's very, balanced at the plate, has shown the ability to hit offspeed and good fastballs, and I buy into the theory that he wasn't totally 100% early in the year because of his recovery from shoulder surgery.

Outside of Henderson, Ortiz may be the most complete positional prospect in the upper minors. I really think he has a chance at making the team next year if the team does not go out and get a second baseman. 

Obviously we don't know who will get moved this offseason with the glut of middle infield players available to the team, but I'm betting teams will be asking for Ortiz. I think he's probably jumped Westburg as a prospect because of his ability to play a plus defensive SS and his better plate discipline than Westburg. But I need to do a full analysis on that before making that official.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Tony is very high on his defense.   Ortiz is not a steady J.J. Hardy.  He's a steady J.J. Hardy with the occasionally flashy play.   I know, high praise.   He probably will be a player who makes a few less errors than Mateo.   I love Mateo.  I was championing him as well.   He has frustrated me lately because he's going back to pull mode.  He's not as bad as early in the season but he's also over committing to pulling and swinging at more bad pitches again.    It think Mateo will struggle to get an OPS over .700 over a full season.   Mateo with a .750 OPS is a "star" but I'm skeptical he can maintain the approach he needs to get there.  I think Ortiz is capable of the .800 range along with the good defense.    I probably sound like a broken record.   Ortiz uses all fields (he was pulling a lot early in the season), had power to all fields, doesn't strike out much (this is a very important distinction as most of our minor leaguers trade damage for less contact).    I'm sure you've noticed that Bowie and Norfolk have consistently put him in the #3 or #4 spot in the lineup even when other top prospects are on the team.   Frankly, his 4th round draft status and terrible first half (the labrum surgery after effects are certainly a valid excuse) are keeping him from getting the recognition I think he deserves.     A SS with plus defense, power, and a 1.000 OPS (running on 2 1/2 months) who just turned 24 (missing 1 season to COVID and most of another to labrum surgery isn't generating much excitement.   I guess that's the new Oriole system.

Typically RZNJ is a little too rosey on our guys at times, but I don't have anything to argue with here. I see the same things. Ortiz has become a pretty special prospect but I'm ok if he's flying under the radar a bit nationally. Keith Law was on him pretty early and he has connections to the Elias regime so Ortiz was trending pretty high after he came back from COVID year stronger.

He didn't show a ton before he got hurt and I thought it was more "Blood hype" but once he got fully healthy and strong again at Bowie this year, he's been every bit a top prospect and besides foot speed, Ortiz he's above average in every tool.

[MurphDogg]

If they can get an innings eater starting pitcher type for Mateo or Urias, I would have no problem penciling in Ortiz as the opening day shortstop. A couple months ago, I didn't view either Mateo or Urias as more than a utility infielder for a decent team, but if they can get actually value for one of them, they should trade them. The presence of Mateo should not hold back Ortiz from claiming the starting job either way, as he certainly has a ton more upside due to the bat.

I wouldn't be opposed to having Westburg penciled in as the other starting infielder and have Urias or Mateo as the utility infielder and a decent backup option if Westburg, Henderson or Ortiz falter.

They could potentially carry all five of the above players, but if Mateo and/or Urias does prove to have legit trade value, I think you trade at least one of them and figure out what they have in Westburg and Ortiz.

The other wild card is Vavra, although I am more concerned about his defense than I am with the others, especially since the Orioles don't seem to trust him at second yet.

[nvpacchi]

Ortiz and Westburg are probably my two favorite prospects in the system, but I struggle with not giving Mateo every opportunity to win the job at SS next year, for two main reasons:

1. He has slipped recently, but his rolling graphs don't show a sudden spike in chase rate, and in fact his K rate has also stabilized around 24% - I think you take that with Mateo any day.  He's also been sporting a .270 BABIP recently, so I'm hoping his recent struggles aren't completely process related, and he can turn the corner and put up a league average line the rest of the season.

2. If the Orioles were to try and sell high on Mateo, it may be difficult to find a trade partner.  Established contenders will either already have a shortstop or the means to try and get an above average regular.  So who do the O's even trade with?  Maybe the Twins if Correa leaves? Maybe the Dodgers for depth?  Perhaps we're in a situation where Mateo is seen as more valuable to the O's than the 29 other clubs right now.  Certainly that one is open to debate, but that's where my head is right now.

[emmett16]

3 for 4 with another homer. He’s en fuego .419avg 1.131 ops since AAA call up.  

[Frobby]

He certainly hasn’t missed a beat while moving up to AAA.  It’s a very exciting development.  

[xmichaelx]

What a fun infield problem we will have next year