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O’s ranked 30th in ESPN power rankings


Frobby

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10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm very aware of what I posted.

Korea also has a professional baseball league.

Soju is closer analog to Vodka than Sake is.

 

Except NPB was what was mentioned, not KPO, so I thought you got mixed up. Good to know that you're knowledgeable about your liquors. 😉

Edited by CompuCoach
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1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

I think we're better than OAK, but a bottom-3 record and 165 of the 1000 ping-pong balls likely.

Chance of missing Top 1 Pick = 83.5%

Missing both of Top 2 Picks = 69.7%

Missing all three of Top 3 Picks = 58.2%

Missing all four = 48.6%

Missing all five = 40.5%

Missing all six = 33.9%

So whether you lose 94, 99 or 111, looks like one in three chance you'll pick 7th or worse.

The math isn’t as simple as just multiplying .835 into itself, because each time a team is selected, all their remaining ping pong balls are disqualified.   And, there are different probabilities depending on which team’s ball gets selected each time.   I couldn’t begin to do this calculation, but in any scenario the odds of the O’s getting a top 6 pick are better than you calculated because their percentage of the eligible ping pong balls increases each pick.

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