Austin Hays 2022

[OriolesMagic83]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I've been wondering what if anything to read into LF-RF assignments too.   Maybe Hays slowing down, and the RF Arm is becoming his most distinctive OF attribute, and Santander versatility just being showcased for trade market?

Santander in the Arb3 on-deck circle the interesting case for me next month of how Raysian Elias' Orioles are going to be. 

Longer term thinking, maybe they feel Stowers is the LF in a Hays corner pair, and Santander a bigger DH share of time.  Stowers just five LF games YTD at Norfolk, though they had him there in Toronto.

My take is that Elias isn't paying repeat arbitration rates for anyone who he doesn't think of as near elite.  By near elite, I mean a guy who can make an All Star team.  The O's are on a tight budget, only the owners and Elias know what that budget is, but I'm guessing it doesn't include paying Mancini $10 million in 2023 or Santander $7 or 8 million.  When they O's have a playoff contending team, things might be different.  This offseason will tell us a lot. 

[MurphDogg]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

My take is that Elias isn't paying repeat arbitration rates for anyone who he doesn't think of as near elite.  By near elite, I mean a guy who can make an All Star team.  The O's are on a tight budget, only the owners and Elias know what that budget is, but I'm guessing it doesn't include paying Mancini $10 million in 2023 or Santander $7 or 8 million.  When they O's have a playoff contending team, things might be different.  This offseason will tell us a lot. 

Santander is making $3.15M this year. He won't be in line to make $7 or $8 million next year.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Santander is making $3.15M this year. He won't be in line to make $7 or $8 million next year.

I don't see Elias paying Santander even if it's $6 million.

[SilverRocket]

1 hour ago, byrdz said:

Slightly off topic but does anyone know why Hays and Santander swapped positions for last nights White Sox game?

Hays tends to play whichever side has more space (LF in Camden Yards), and RF if it's around the same (which it is in Chicago) because of his arm.

[MurphDogg]

35 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I don't see Elias paying Santander even if it's $6 million.

I doubt he would jump to $6 million, rarely do arbitration salaries come close to doubling from onw season to the next.

But given that they are paying a 30-year-old Mancini $7.75M this year and he was markedly worse in 2021 than Santander was in 3 of the last 4 years (including 2022), I don't know why they would hesitate to pay Santander $6M for his age 28 season. I think a trade is a likely outcome, but an extra $3 million for Santander isn't going to break the bank.

[jdwilde1]

9 hours ago, Surhoffan17 said:

Sorry if this has been addressed, but how in the h$ll does he have -.2 DWAR (baseball reference) at this point in the season?  I know the baseline is higher for Replacement players when it comes to Defense, but still I can't make sense of it

It's likely because outfield defensive metrics, despite their recent improvements, are not incredibly reliable without large data samples.  Sixty+ games is just too small of a sample size to draw any real meaning.  For something like Ultimate Zone Rating ("UZR"), three seasons of data is recommended for the measurement to be reliable.  DRS uses an annual rolling score.  In addition, a lot of the data is still based on estimates by "video scouts" who are watching videos of games (i.e. they are not there in person so they are getting the same TV feed as everyone else at home).  For example, Baseball Info Solutions ("BIS"), which provides the data for DRS and Fangraphs' UZR, uses seasonal employees to estimate batted ball data (e.g. angle, landing point, etc.).  That is, a good chunk of the data going into the metrics like UZR are still based on somebody's observations.  Also, prior to 2020, BIS did not account for the fielder's positioning, including shifts.  (See Notable Updates to Defensive Runs Saved - Sports Info Solutions).  There is a great article by Lee Judge on the topic from 2019, but it may be behind a paywall.  It's well worth the read if you are so inclined.    Advanced defensive metrics are flawed measure of baseball | The Kansas City Star

Some other things to keep in mind, right from fangraphs:

• Defensive statistics should not be taken as 100% accurate, just like anything. There are plenty of reasons why they might not be telling you a complete story. (See link below for detail). 
• Beware of sample sizes! If a player only spent 50 innings at a position last season, it’d be a good idea not to draw too many conclusions from their UZR score over that time. Like with any defensive statistic, you should always use three years of UZR data before trying to draw any conclusions on the true talent level of a fielder [emphasis added].
• UZR uses Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) data in calculating its results. It’s important to note that this data is compiled by human scorers, which means that it likely includes some human error. Until StatCast data gets released to the public, we are never going to have wholly accurate defensive data; human error is impossible to avoid when recording fielding locations by hand, no matter how meticulous the scorers. That said, BIS data is still the best, most accurate defensive data available at this time, so just be careful not to overstate claims of a player’s defensive prowess based solely on defensive stats.

UZR | Sabermetrics Library (fangraphs.com)

That is not to say that we should not look at, and consider, advanced defensive metrics.  First, I find the infield defensive metrics to be very reliable.  Second, even the outfield metrics are pretty good at measuring a fielder's performance and are improving every season.  For example, if you take a group of ten right fielders with a dWAR of 0.0 or greater and another group of ten right fielders with a dWAR of -1.0 or lower, the first group will most certainly have the better group of defenders.  With that said, there is still enough noise in the way the defensive metrics are compiled that it is likely that at least one or two guys in the -1.0 group are just as good or better than some of the guys in the 0.0 group.  In fact, I recall an article from a few years ago that stated luck and statistical noise could add or subtract one dWAR in a single season through no change in the fielder's performance (again, I am not sure how accurate this is in 2022 since measurements are more accurate).  Unfortunately, I could not find the link for this post.       

If you are not sure about how some of the defensive metrics are calculated, I recommend the video below.  The video does a great job of explaining UZR and DRS, and also goes into some of the accuracy issues around the five-minute mark.  In particular, it notes that unless you are with an MLB organization, you likely will not have access to direct movement data (i.e. data the tracks how far a player needs to move to make a play).  In addition, here are a couple of other links to articles I have found helpful:

Baseball Stats Still Haven’t Pivoted Away From Video - The Ringer

The Baseball Prospectus article comparing defensive metrics is… strange – Hareeb's Hangout

What is the best statistic for measuring defense? - DRaysBay

In summary, the advanced defensive metrics are a really good tool, but are definitely not perfect and can be misleading with small sample sizes.  If you watch the O's every night and think Hays is playing good defense, he's probably playing good defense.  A small sample dWAR should not change your mind about what you are seeing. 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

That's about 5 almost HR so far tonight.  Damn wind!

[OriolesMagic83]

13 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

That's about 5 almost HR so far tonight.  Damn wind!

Oops!  Was supposed to be in game thread.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Oops!  Was supposed to be in game thread.

Well, Hays did have one of them.  

[oldfan]

Windy City.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, oldfan said:

Windy City.

Here’s an obscure fact: it’s not clear that  the term “Windy City” derives from the weather in Chicago.  It may derive from Chicago rivals who felt Chicagoans blew a lot of hot air about their city.  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windy_City_(nickname)

It is a pretty windy place, however.

 

[Moose Milligan]

That follow through jump thing he does at the end of his swing looks so f’ing cool. 
 

I’m here to eat crow. I was hard on him in the past but he’s a great ballplayer. 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That follow through jump thing he does at the end of his swing looks so f’ing cool. 
 

I’m here to eat crow. I was hard on him in the past but he’s a great ballplayer. 

Always good when you’re eating crow because an Orioles player is better than you thought.   The opposite reason for eating crow is not fun.  

[Can_of_corn]

MLB.com piece on Hays.

 

[SilverRocket]

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/hays-changes-workout-routine-in-quest-to-play-full-season

Hays changed his routine last year, doing less strength training and more flexibility. Reminds me of Jake Arrieta doing pilates.

 

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The only issues have been the wrist, which he landed on making the catch at Guaranteed Rate Field and then was hit by a pitch in the same spot, and his left hand that was cut after the Cardinals’ Génesis Cabrera cleated him. Nothing muscular. Incidents that are more a product of bad luck.

“He was going heavy,” Aasen said. “You look at these college facilities or the old school strength style of stronger, more weight. You need to get stronger, you need to get bigger. But that’s not really what needed to be done. You need to move better, you need to have better freedom in your joints, you need to have strength through all of those ranges in your joints.

“It's like working on his flexibility, but now imagine having that flexibility with all that strength through that range. If you bring your leg all the way to your head, you can actually bring it actively and not pull it.”

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by SilverRocket
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