Gunnar Henderson 2022

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Vandy said:

Something can be factual but also not hold a ton of water as a valid criticism. Since Elias arrived, no drafted player has made an all star team for any organization and only one international signing has earned that distinction (Yusei Kikuchi at 30 years old from the NPB). I guess someone could argue that he failed to trade mediocre assets on the roster for an all star caliber player since he took over, but I'm not going to fault him for failing to turn water into wine. 

I never said it was criticism did I? My comment is that he's had three and half years, three drafts, three international signing periods to bring potential impact players into the organization through drafts, trades and FA signings and he has two (Adley and Gunnar) in my opinion.

Now some will argue every player in the system is a future impact player. I prefer to hold that to a high standard. That doesn't mean there are not more good players or even every day players in the system, just he's had three top five picks including a 1:1. He should have more in my opinion especially if their drafting and development is such heads and shoulder above other teams like some people on here want to think.

I'm not saying it's bad, and you can argue we've seen so steps forward in several areas, but I hate to break it to people that the minor leagues is not filled with can't miss impact guys and we have an ownership group that is disarray, suing itself, and has shown no inkling in anything it does that it will do things in a first class manner or spend money. 

But I'll try to take this back to Gunnar, he is a big positive. It's rare for a kid this age to do what he's done this year and play a tough defensive position.

 

[baltfan]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I agree. So far it appears the Elias regimes best pick and development story has come from drafting a high school player vs trying to use computer systems to determine what college stats translate to. 

I'm not saying that's all they use of course, but just that the college players have been less than spectacular this year especially once they've reached the upper minors, and in Cowser's case, High-A ball.

I haven't drawn any conclusions on Elias' draft strategy and selections so far, but I can't say I'm elated after this season with a lot of top picks not performing very well. Westburg's hit streak in AAA has definitely brightened his star a bit though I want to see it over a longer haul, especially after 339 mediocre AA PAs.

Cowser, Haskin, Watson have all underperformed expectations so far. 

While Mayo's year has not been stellar, he still has some good upside and is young for his league. I'm ok with guys taking a little extra time at a level when they're young, but not when they are million+ bonus babies out of college who are age appropriate or a little old for their leagues.

You can't have it both ways.  Rutschman likely came cheaper than Witt would have given his father and his leverage.  This, in turn, allowed for going overslot later.  If you don't like Kjerstad, tell me who you would have rather had if it meant not having Mayo or Baumler.  Similarly, if you don't love Cowser, I guess you can say you would have rather had Lawler, but it is pretty damn early in the process.  And many of the college guys in other rounds you don't like, allowed for some of the high school overslots.  

[Tony-OH]

Just now, baltfan said:

You can't have it both ways.  Rutschman likely came cheaper than Witt would have given his father and his leverage.  This, in turn, allowed for going overslot later.  If you don't like Kjerstad, tell me who you would have rather had if it meant not having Mayo or Baumler.  Similarly, if you don't love Cowser, I guess you can say you would have rather had Lawler, but it is pretty damn early in the process.  And many of the college guys in other rounds you don't like, allowed for some of the high school overslots.  

It's not my job to tell Elias how he should have done things differently. This is a false narrative done by people who wants to love their team and everything they do and aren;t listening to what I'm saying. I don't scout guys before they are brought into the system and I'm not one of those people that say you should have drafted player A over player B.

As an analyst, I'm looking at what we have right now in the system and on the 40-man roster. I'm evaluating the current talent and then assessing where we are. 

While Elias has done some good things and brought some good players into the system, the only impact guys guys I see that he and his team brought in is Adley and Gunnar. Sorry, if that hurts your feelings or you just disagree, that's fine as well. 

Some people are trying to twist my Westburg stuff into saying I don't like him when I've said I think he's going to be an everyday MLB player. That's actually high praise because most draft picks will not get there.

I don't think he's an impact guy and that's fine, not every pick is going to be an impact guy (some fans just think they will).

Look, every time I show the least bit of criticism I get the same posters saying the same things over and over. Look, I get it, people on here are fans and while they're not twitteriot fans, they are still fans who want to give the organization the benefit of the doubt.

I'm ok with that and understand it. But that's not going to stop me from giving my fair and honest analysis of guys. 

 

[Frobby]

I’d say I’m definitely higher on Westburg than Tony.   Or, maybe I’m just feeling that Westburg doesn’t need to be a star player to be a very helpful addition to our team, he just needs to be a solid contributor and I think he will be.  Watching our offense, I’m getting pretty bullish on the 2023 version with Adley fully up to speed and Henderson and Westburg added.    The OBP gap between these guys and the guys they are replacing is enormous.  I realize not all that MiL OBP will translate over to the majors, but I expect a decent chunk will. It’s not hard to beat .237 (Mateo), .257 (Odor) and .308 (Nevin - actually not terrible right now on this score).   Urias before getting hurt was at .273 but I believe he can do much better; he’s hit in tough luck this year.   

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I never said it was criticism did I? My comment is that he's had three and half years, three drafts, three international signing periods to bring potential impact players into the organization through drafts, trades and FA signings and he has two (Adley and Gunnar) in my opinion.

Now some will argue every player in the system is a future impact player. I prefer to hold that to a high standard. That doesn't mean there are not more good players or even every day players in the system, just he's had three top five picks including a 1:1. He should have more in my opinion especially if their drafting and development is such heads and shoulder above other teams like some people on here want to think.

I'm not saying it's bad, and you can argue we've seen so steps forward in several areas, but I hate to break it to people that the minor leagues is not filled with can't miss impact guys and we have an ownership group that is disarray, suing itself, and has shown no inkling in anything it does that it will do things in a first class manner or spend money. 

But I'll try to take this back to Gunnar, he is a big positive. It's rare for a kid this age to do what he's done this year and play a tough defensive position.

 

I like what Elias has done vs. what Duquette did with the farm.  I just looked over the 2018 draft and other than Grayson, there's not much else.  Grenier has been exposed as a utility player as best.  I haven't heard anything about Blaine Knight.  Rom wasn't even protected.  The O's/Elias had the #1 farm system at some point this year.  That's a notable accomplishment starting from close to zero with what he inherited.  I think you can find failures and successes in any organization, but the O's minors are the best in my memory (only extends to the late 90's).  I always heard that if an organization graduates 2 regular players a year to the majors, its doing well.  I would say the O's meet that criteria. 

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I like what Elias has done vs. what Duquette did with the farm.  I just looked over the 2018 draft and other than Grayson, there's not much else.  Grenier has been exposed as a utility player as best.  I haven't heard anything about Blaine Knight.  Rom wasn't even protected.  The O's/Elias had the #1 farm system at some point this year.  That's a notable accomplishment starting from close to zero with what he inherited.  I think you can find failures and successes in any organization, but the O's minors are the best in my memory (only extends to the late 90's).  I always heard that if an organization graduates 2 regular players a year to the majors, its doing well.  I would say the O's meet that criteria. 

Late 2000s/early 2010s produced some very good players that got us to the playoffs 3 times in 5 years.

We can’t say these guys are on par with that group until they do that.

[OriolesMagic83]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Late 2000s/early 2010s produced some very good players that got us to the playoffs 3 times in 5 years.

We can’t say these guys are on par with that group until they do that.

Well I think it's premature to judge this current group of prospects a failure.  People are still talking about Diaz as a prospect when he was here before any of Elias prospects.  I think 2024 would be a good judgement year for Elias.  By 2024, Elias would have either graduated a sizable core of prospects to the majors.  Enough of a core to be competitors in the AL East or the rebuild could be judged as failing.  Adley is the first major Elias' prospects to graduate to the majors.  It's like trying to judge a cake when it's half baked. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Also, a lot of these young players that Duquette profited from were trades that McPhail made like the Bedard/Jones & Tillman trade.  Elias still has a questionable record on trades, but there's not much left from Duquette trades to help him out.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Well I think it's premature to judge this current group of prospects a failure.  People are still talking about Diaz as a prospect when he was here before any of Elias prospects.  I think 2024 would be a good judgement year for Elias.  By 2024, Elias would have either graduated a sizable core of prospects to the majors.  Enough of a core to be competitors in the AL East or the rebuild could be judged as failing.  Adley is the first major Elias' prospects to graduate to the majors.  It's like trying to judge a cake when it's half baked. 

Who is judging these guys as a failure?

You said this is the best crop that you can remember.  I think the players that actually accomplished things and won is the best crop in recent memory.

Its tbd whether these guys will eclipse them.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I like what Elias has done vs. what Duquette did with the farm.  I just looked over the 2018 draft and other than Grayson, there's not much else.  Grenier has been exposed as a utility player as best.  I haven't heard anything about Blaine Knight.  Rom wasn't even protected.  

Rom didn’t need to be protected.  He’s not Rule 5 eligible yet.  

[Frobby]

Gunnar with the late homer on a 3 for 6 night.  The Tides have five guys with 3+ hits in this game. 

[Just Regular]

It is going to be different but right once Stowers-Hall-Gunnar-Westburg are all up to transition away from being so often in the Minors forum.

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Late 2000s/early 2010s produced some very good players that got us to the playoffs 3 times in 5 years.

We can’t say these guys are on par with that group until they do that.

The 2012-2016 Orioles were built just as much with trades as with the draft.  It's still early, but I like this homegrown group better.  The 2012-2016 pretty much found or traded for all their starting pitchers.  So it can be done.  Elias hasn't had much luck as of yet. 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The 2012-2016 Orioles were built just as much with trades as with the draft.  It's still early, but I like this homegrown group better.  The 2012-2016 pretty much found or traded for all their starting pitchers.  So it can be done.  Elias hasn't had much luck as of yet. 

Who cares how they were acquired?  They weren’t lesser prospects because they came in a trade.

 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Who cares how they were acquired?  They weren’t lesser prospects because they came in a trade.

 

No one said they were. He just said he liked this group better.