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Jorge Mateo


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1 hour ago, waroriole said:

I really hope the 2 HR night doesn’t bring him back to the pull everything mindset. The OBP is still only .264. He needs to be in the .300 range to have any chance of being a regular on a contender. The ability is there, it’s just a matter of having consistently good ABs. 

I mean, the Yankees are starting Isiah Kiner-Falefa at SS.   His OBP is better than Mateo, but Mateo has a better OPS, rWAR and fWAR.  Mateo’s on pace for 3.5 rWAR, well above average.  He could start for a contender playing as he is right now.   But he’d solidify his case a lot if the OBP nudged upwards, for sure.  

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1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Is being on the fringes of the playoff race what you consider a contender to be?

Since May 19th, a considerable two-and-a-half months ago, the Os have been 39-27. That's a .591 winning percentage that trails only the Yankees and Astros. It's also a winning pct. that would put them second in the AL East and West and first place in the AL Central.

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4 hours ago, waroriole said:

I really hope the 2 HR night doesn’t bring him back to the pull everything mindset. The OBP is still only .264. He needs to be in the .300 range to have any chance of being a regular on a contender. The ability is there, it’s just a matter of having consistently good ABs. 

For me the OBP needs to be .330+ , which I think he can do. He was really bad early so hope it’s an adjustment over a hot streak.

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On 8/3/2022 at 9:06 AM, LA2 said:

Since May 19th, a considerable two-and-a-half months ago, the Os have been 39-27. That's a .591 winning percentage that trails only the Yankees and Astros. It's also a winning pct. that would put them second in the AL East and West and first place in the AL Central.

These are stats I love to read!

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On 8/3/2022 at 11:31 AM, Roll Tide said:

For me the OBP needs to be .330+ , which I think he can do. He was really bad early so hope it’s an adjustment over a hot streak.

There are 25 shortstops with enough PA to qualify, and only 10 of them have an OBP of .330 or higher.  Mateo is never going to be one of them, but he doesn’t have to be.  Even in his current hot streak (.872 OPS in his last 32 games) his OBP is only .316.   He could do that the rest of the year and his cumulative OBP for the season would only be .283 or so.  Honestly I’d be thrilled if he got there, considering where he is now.  

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6 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I think Mateo is going to be a superstar.  I think he is capable of 30 homers.  He fields like the Wizard of Oz.

I like Mateo, but let’s be realistic here.  He’s 27 and just getting to the point where he’s a major league starter.   If he was going to be a superstar, he’d be one by now.   Or maybe you just have a different definition than I do of what a superstar is.

In my book, 30 homers are nice, but having a sub-.300 OBP makes it pretty much impossible to be a superstar.  Here are the players who hit 30 HR with a sub-.300 OBP last year: Adolis Garcia, Eugenia Suarez, Adam Duvall, Kyle Seager.   None of those are/were superstars in my book.  Granted, none of them were a plus-fielding SS.  But then again, Mateo has 10 homers in 97 games and probably won’t reach 20 homers, forget 30.

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4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I like Mateo, but let’s be realistic here.  He’s 27 and just getting to the point where he’s a major league starter.   If he was going to be a superstar, he’d be one by now.   Or maybe you just have a different definition than I do of what a superstar is.

In my book, 30 homers are nice, but having a sub-.300 OBP makes it pretty much impossible to be a superstar.  Here are the players who hit 30 HR with a sub-.300 OBP last year: Adolis Garcia, Eugenia Suarez, Adam Duvall, Kyle Seager.   None of those are/were superstars in my book.  Granted, none of them were a plus-fielding SS.  But then again, Mateo has 10 homers in 97 games and probably won’t reach 20 homers, forget 30.

He does t needs a superstar! He just needs to get his OBP up to .330 to be a valuable player. I’m guessing that he’s doing that now after starting the season slow. With his speed it would be nice to see him be a bit more patient and hopefully the homers don’t go to his head

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6 hours ago, Frobby said:

There are 25 shortstops with enough PA to qualify, and only 10 of them have an OBP of .330 or higher.  Mateo is never going to be one of them, but he doesn’t have to be.  Even in his current hot streak (.872 OPS in his last 32 games) his OBP is only .316.   He could do that the rest of the year and his cumulative OBP for the season would only be .283 or so.  Honestly I’d be thrilled if he got there, considering where he is now.  

Just a reminder of Mateo's slash line last year with the Orioles during 116 plate appearances (about a third of this season's 345): .280 / .328 / .421 / .748. 

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Last 39 games (137 PA): .288/.336/.568. Yep, a .904 OPS over almost a quarter-season since June 25.  It’s a pretty amazing turnaround.   And it really does seem like he’s changed his approach a good bit.  His K% was 32% before his hot streak began, 23% since then.  It’s going to be fascinating to watch what he does down the stretch.   

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Mateo came into the season with 220 at-bats, exceeding the 130 AB limit for pre-rookie status by less than a month of regular play. Had that not been the case, he would be ranked among the top rookies in the league, though very unlikely to surpass his teammate Adley and J-Rod for RoY votes.

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Last 39 games (137 PA): .288/.336/.568. Yep, a .904 OPS over almost a quarter-season since June 25.  It’s a pretty amazing turnaround.   And it really does seem like he’s changed his approach a good bit.  His K% was 32% before his hot streak began, 23% since then.  It’s going to be fascinating to watch what he does down the stretch.   

https://twitter.com/baltsunsports/status/1558393935298437120?s=21&t=DIoIwS53Ze72C7SyFSn80g

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Cuban players (and international players in general) frequently develop later but can often become stars when they do. It surprised me when the Padres moved on but as your franchise gets deeper….Something to keep in mind for Diaz. Many have written him off….I wouldn’t.

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