Is the overslot strategy worth it?

[SpOkane]

By using the slot values for 2021, looks like the O's will have about $16.1 M allotted for this year's draft. Pirates had $14.4 M last year. Difference is Pirates had pick in CB Round B and O's have picks in rounds A & B.  They could cut deals elsewhere to enact an overslot strategy.

[btdart20]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

10% isn’t big enough to pass on a superior talent though.

And btw, these teams could have still taken these guys as well.  It just means you can’t spend as much as you go through your draft.

Right, as long as it adds up to the total cap.

Of the top 30 picks in the 2015 draft, only 8 have a > 2 career WAR (Swanson:9.1, Bregman:26.6, Tucker:8.1, Benintendi:13.1, Happ:7.5, Stephenson:2.5, Buehler:13.1, Soroka:6.2).  There are 8 in the 0-2 career WAR range (including D.J. Stewart).  I would count this tier as a miss.  There are 14 <= 0 career WAR.  8 out of 30 are difference makers of some sort.  For context - none of the guys I pulled out above (Luzardo, McKenzie, Melendez) have a +2 career WAR.  About 25% of that first round were difference makers (including 2 guys who signed significantly underslot).  

 

Major League Draft WARs: An Analysis of Wins Above Replacement in Player Selection - IOS Press

This study is pretty interesting.  After the second round, there really isn't much of a difference in career WAR for those who make it to the bigs.  So, taking a stab at getting a future 1st/2nd rounder 1-4 years early is the gamble.  Enticing a top 50 guy in the 5th round to bypass college is better than drafting the 150th ranked guy.  If you're still able to get 2 top 50 guys in round 1 and 2, then you've got one more dice roll at the table that the next team.  10% after pick 50 doesn't sound so bad in that context IMO. 

All of that said, it's likely that the make-up of talent pool and quality of your scout rankings is important than the strategy.  

In Ozzie/DeCosta we trust has been the Raven-fan mantra for years.  Hoping we can get to that level of execution/trust with the O's brain-trust too. 

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

On 4/29/2022 at 8:20 AM, Frobby said:

First of all, this is really good research and I always like being presented with some facts, rather than rhetoric.  

I will say that the story hasn’t necessarily been written yet on all these guys, especially the high school guys from 2016-17.   I haven’t gone through the list in detail, but at some point I will.

I generally agree with your conclusion.   I do think it depends a bit on exactly what your opinion is about the gap in talent between one guy and the next, and what it is they are demanding in salary.  You wouldn’t overlook a large gap in talent to save $500 k; if it’s very close to a toss-up in your opinion, then maybe you do.     

 

Depends immensely on each draft class immensely. But also baseball is hard and the odds are against you & those odds are even less in later rounds so why not take the BPA. I wish the Ravens would draft for Elias. 

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Depends immensely on each draft class immensely. But also baseball is hard and the odds are against you & those odds are even less in later rounds so why not take the BPA. I wish the Ravens would draft for Elias. 

Haha.  So, you don't like picks like Stowers, Westburg, Rhodes, Norby, Hernaiz, Henderson, Haskins, Ortiz, etc.?    

Are you that hung up on Kjerstad and Cowser?

[Frobby]

So I dug in a little on all the players identified in @Sports Guy's OP.  There are 32 players listed.  Players who made the majors so far (11) are highlighted in yellow with round drafted, rWAR, years in the majors and age this year; players who haven't appeared in the majors or the minors in 2022 (7) are highlighted in red; they may be out of baseball or they may be hurt.   For guys still in the minors , I've listed what level they are at this year and their age this season.

2014: 

• Scott Blewett: 797K over slot (2nd round) 0.1 rWAR 2020-21 age 26
• Gareth Morgan: 1.2M (2nd round) 
• Justin Steele: 640K (5th round) 0.6 rWAR 2021-22 age 26 

2015:

• Daz Cameron: 2.3M over slot (1sr round supp.) -0.7 rWAR 2020-22 age 25
• Triston McKenzie: 834K (1st round supp.) 1.9 rWAR 2020-22 age 24
• Eric Jenkins: 639K (2nd round)
• Michael Matuella: 1.2M (3rd round)
• Jalen Miller: 501K (3rd round) AA age 25
• Dakota Chalmers: 613K (3rd round)
• Darryl Wilson: 797K (3rd round)
• Gray Fenter: 821K (7th round) AA age 26

2016:

• Taylor Trammel: 1.6M over slot (1st round supp.) -0.3 rWAR 2021 age 23
• Joey Wentz: 1.4M (1st round supp.) AA age 24
• Kevin Gowdy: 1.96M (2nd round) AA age 24
• Chris Okey: 502K (31st round) AAA age 27
• Reggie Lawson: 994K (2nd round) AA age 24
• Brett Cumberland: 661K (2nd round) AAA age 27
• Mason Thompson: 1M (3rd round) -0.1 rWAR 2021-22 age 24
• Jesus Luzardo: 764K (3rd round) 0.1 rWAR 2019-21 age 24
• Nolan Martinez: 542K (3rd round)
• Bryse Wilson: 653K (4th round) 0.1 rWAR 2018-22 age 24

2017:

• Gavin Sheets: 600K (2nd round) -0.3 rWAR 2021 age 26
• MJ Melendez: 800K (2nd round) AAA age 23 -- ranked no. 42 prospect by BA entering 2022
• Matt Sauer: 1.2M  (2nd round) A+ age 23
• Sam Carlson: 800K (2nd round)
• Hans Crouse: 500K 0.0 rWAR 2021 age 23
• Blake Hunt: 750K (2nd round) AA age 23
• Freddy Tarnok: 740K (3rd round) AA age 23
• Nick Allen: 1.3M (3rd round) 0.2 rWAR 2022 age 23
• Sam McMillan: 687K (5th round) A ball age 23
• Mason McCoy: 500K (6th round) AAA age 27
• Jeremiah Estrada: 775K (6th round) A+ age 23

Based on all this, the initial impression that the big overslot players in this time period have not made much impact so far is confirmed.   Triston McKenzie is the big winner to date at 1.9 rWAR at age 24.   The total combined rWAR of all six  players who have postive rWAR is 3.0 rWAR; that excludes the other five who are at -1.4 combined.   

Still, it is a bit early to count some of these guys out, or to say that some of those who have reached the majors won't do better with more experience.   Remember that the median age of debut last year was 25.164, up from 24.287 in 2019 due to the impact of the pandemic on minor league development.   So, some of these guys will make the majors and hopefully become good players.    But, at least right now, there's not a lot of evidence that overslot drafting is very effective.

 

[RZNJ]

I don't disagree with the evidence but let's take a look at Elias overslots with the Orioles.

1. Gunnar Henderson

2. Coby Mayo

3. John Rhodes

4. Carter Baumler

5. Who am I missing?

 

This is not an argument for going underslot on the 1st round pick.   Just asking?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I don't disagree with the evidence but let's take a look at Elias overslots with the Orioles.

1. Gunnar Henderson

2. Coby Mayo

3. John Rhodes

4. Carter Baumler

5. Who am I missing?

 

This is not an argument for going underslot on the 1st round pick.   Just asking?

Bottom line, we have to see how they produce in the majors, and how the underslot guys do compared to the more expensive guys we passed on.  Ask me in 6-8 years.  

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I don't disagree with the evidence but let's take a look at Elias overslots with the Orioles.

1. Gunnar Henderson

2. Coby Mayo

3. John Rhodes

4. Carter Baumler

5. Who am I missing?

 

This is not an argument for going underslot on the 1st round pick.   Just asking?

And how well have they done in the majors?  
 

Im not even disagreeing with your point here.  There is a lot of promise there.  But I think you could have had all of them except one of Baumler or Mayo anyway.  
 

That’s the thing I don’t get.  Every single team signs overslot guys.  The Orioles aren’t different from the rest of the league and those teams don’t always go underslot early.  You always have the budget to sign overslot guys.

The key here is, do you take a lesser talent just for a shot that someone you like is there and even if they are, what are the chances they will make an impact at the ML level or be part of a trade for a piece that matters?

When you combine all of it, the chances are very small and certainly not enough to pass on the greater talent early on.

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And how well have they done in the majors?  
 

Im not even disagreeing with your point here.  There is a lot of promise there.  But I think you could have had all of them except one of Baumler or Mayo anyway.  
 

That’s the thing I don’t get.  Every single team signs overslot guys.  The Orioles aren’t different from the rest of the league and those teams don’t always go underslot early.  You always have the budget to sign overslot guys.

The key here is, do you take a lesser talent just for a shot that someone you like is there and even if they are, what are the chances they will make an impact at the ML level or be part of a trade for a piece that matters?

When you combine all of it, the chances are very small and certainly not enough to pass on the greater talent early on.

It's very subjective about which greater talent we passed on in the 2020 and 2021 drafts.  Of course, you turn subjective into fact.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It's very subjective about which greater talent we passed on in the 2020 and 2021 drafts.  Of course, you turn subjective into fact.

I’m not talking about those drafts although I think you would be hard pressed to find people who don’t agree that Veen and Lawlar are higher upside players.

That said, my focus is on the upcoming draft and yes, Jones is clearly the #1 talent.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not talking about those drafts although I think you would be hard pressed to find people who don’t agree that Veen and Lawlar are higher upside players.

That said, my focus is on the upcoming draft and yes, Jones is clearly the #1 talent.

Haha. Best player or best talent? Some think Green has more talent and upside.  

 

[CharmCityHokie]

On 4/29/2022 at 8:58 AM, Can_of_corn said:

Ah yes the trade for expensive veteran pitcher strategy that folks thought we would emulate.

Has worked well for them.

Why trade for all those intangible veteran-pitcher benefits when you can just add Jordan Lyles. Wonder what Steve Trachsel is up to these days...

[Sports Guy]

45 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Haha. Best player or best talent? Some think Green has more talent and upside.  

 

Whatever you want.  You are the expert.

[RZNJ]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Whatever you want.  You are the expert.

Do you disagree that many have said that Green has the most upside in this draft?

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Do you disagree that many have said that Green has the most upside in this draft?

Yes I do. I agree that it was said but I don’t recall seeing that anytime recently.

All I have seen is that Jones is separating himself.

Who is saying Green has a higher upside?  How credible are they?