Key to this season: avoid long losing streaks

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

I'm choosing to hope in a better season!  Yes, there are still the rotation concerns, and the bullpen is still a bit of an X factor.  But there are also more upside potentials than last year too.

Those losing spells last year were directly related to bad pitching and a tapped pen.  The same thing could happen this year for sure.  For 2021, Means' no-no on 5/5/21 (and subsequent concerns about his arm) is the line of demarcation in my mind (to incorporate the team psychological aspect from another thread).  

Last year Means was solid (and very lucky) through his no-hitter on 5/5/21.  7 starts, 1.37 ERA, 3.06 FIP, .135 Babip against.  After the no-no:  19 starts, 4.65 ERA, 5.33 FIP, .269 Babip against.  And we knew the rest of the staff was duct-taped together.  

Team ERA thru 5/5:  3.98

Team ERA post 5/5: 6.29

Team ERA for 5/11-5/31:  6.79

6/9-6/24 ERA:  7.58

8/3-8/24 ERA: 8.50

Small sample but reference the Fangraphs article for some underlying legitimacy in the numbers too.  Team ERA (3.88) is pretty close to FIP (4.00).  Without Watkins' (2.55 ERA/5.19 FIP), those numbers would probably be much more in line (or even flip the ratio to show slightly unlucky?).  I wish I had team ERA/FIP numbers for those windows in 2021, but I can't find them.

There are at least some decent factors that (maybe) we haven't quite out punted our 10-16 coverage.  

This is a great post.   The pitching absolutely imploded during the long losing streaks last year.   We don’t know yet if that will happen again or not, but there are some reasons for optimism that it won’t.   The date last year’s first implosion began is right around the corner.   I think we’re going to learn a lot about this team in the next 4-8 weeks.

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is a great post.   The pitching absolutely imploded during the long losing streaks last year.   We don’t know yet if that will happen again or not, but there are some reasons for optimism that it won’t.   The date last year’s first implosion began is right around the corner.   I think we’re going to learn a lot about this team in the next 4-8 weeks.

I'd be curious to know how many innings the starters pitched through 5/5 last year compared to this year. It's probably similar. 

The difference for me is Hyde isn't having to reach into his bullpen multiple times when a guy or two absolutely trainwreck an appearance. Either the guy does well enough to get out of the inning, or if he doesn't, the next guy picks him up. There haven't been a string of bullpen implosions causing a chain reaction of overuse and inflated ERAs. Likewise, not too many super short starts. 

It's nice! 

[wildcard]

To me losing streaks are about injuries.   Last year Means went down and there was no one to take his place.  Holt left for over a month and while he does not pitch when he was not there the young pitchers lost one of their main advisors and supporters.  The pitching is deeper this year.   But pitcher are always one pitch away from the IL.

Hays and Santander were and still are injury prone.   Stowers can full in.  Some fans want to talk about Diaz but I will not depend on him for anything.  Anything he the O's get from him is a bonus.

 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

To me losing streaks are about injuries.   Last year Means went down and there was no one to take his place.  Holt left for over a month and while he does not pitch when he was not there the young pitchers lost one of their main advisors and supporters.  The pitching is deeper this year.   But pitcher are always one pitch away from the IL.

Hays and Santander were and still are injury prone.   Stowers can full in.  Some fans want to talk about Diaz but I will not depend on him for anything.  Anything he the O's get from him is a bonus.

 

Yeah, injuries do play a role, but when you have three separate streaks totaling 2-51 there’s way more to it.   Means pitched during the entire May streak and August streak.   All teams have injuries but all teams do not have hellacious losing streaks.

By and large, I don’t believe that because a player has had more than his share of injuries that it means he’s injury prone.  If you roll a dice ten times, the odds are that the same number will come up in three of them.  That doesn’t mean the dice was loaded.   

[wildcard]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, injuries do play a role, but when you have three separate streaks totaling 2-51 there’s way more to it.   Means pitched during the entire May streak and August streak.   All teams have injuries but all teams do not have hellacious losing streaks.

By and large, I don’t believe that because a player has had more than his share of injuries that it means he’s injury prone.  If you roll a dice ten times, the odds are that the same number will come up in three of them.  That doesn’t mean the dice was loaded.   

But it might mean the one throwing the dice is.

[Frobby]

So….last year the team started 16-19 and then went 1-14 over its next 15 games.   This year’s team began 14-18 and has now lost 6 in a row.   Can they stop the bleeding?   This is a time when we could be making up ground on last year’s team.   I know the injuries make it tougher, but sometimes a team has to play decently no matter what is thrown at them.    

[Just Regular]

On 5/6/2022 at 12:25 PM, btdart20 said:

8/3-8/24 ERA: 8.50

Small sample but reference the Fangraphs article for some underlying legitimacy in the numbers too.  Team ERA (3.88) is pretty close to FIP (4.00).  Without Watkins' (2.55 ERA/5.19 FIP), those numbers would probably be much more in line (or even flip the ratio to show slightly unlucky?).  I wish I had team ERA/FIP numbers for those windows in 2021, but I can't find them.

It looks like poking around with Custom Date range on Fangraphs Team Stats you can find FIP and xFIP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=1000&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-08-03&enddate=2021-08-24&sort=16,d

6.16 and 5.15 on the August 19-game losing streak.

Also noticed in that selection MIA despite wealth of young pitching looks to have really melted in that same dog days time frame.    

[Frobby]

On 5/19/2022 at 8:36 AM, Frobby said:

So….last year the team started 16-19 and then went 1-14 over its next 15 games.   This year’s team began 14-18 and has now lost 6 in a row.   Can they stop the bleeding?   This is a time when we could be making up ground on last year’s team.   I know the injuries make it tougher, but sometimes a team has to play decently no matter what is thrown at them.    

The 2022 O’s did stop the bleeding, for now, winning 3 of 4.   The team’s 17-25 record is exactly the same as last year’s…but last year we were two games into a losing streak that extended another 12 games from there.  So, every win we get over the next 12 games will be one win gained on last year’s team.   

[Frobby]

In 2021, game 54 marked the final loss of the Orioles’ first long losing streak, during which the O’s went 1-18.

After 35 games last year, the O’s were a respectable 16-19 (.457).  By the time that horrible stretch ended, they were 17-37 (.315).   

We have avoided any major losing streaks so far this year.   This team was 14-21 (.400) after 35 games and they’re 22-32 (.407) now.   The team went 8-11 in the same block of games where last year’s team went 1-18, picking up 7 games to go from 2 games behind last year’s pace to 5 games ahead of it.  

Last year at this point, the O’s had a brief run of good play (5-1) before embarking on their next big losing skid (1-14).    We’ll see if they can remain steady over the next few weeks.  It feels like the pitching is teetering on the brink.  

 

[Spy Fox]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

We’ll see if they can remain steady over the next few weeks.  It feels like the pitching is teetering on the brink.  

This is what makes the Grayson injury so brutal in the short term even though the long term matters more. Both the "watchability" and tangible success of this pitching staff are waning. I really think GRod was likely to be our best SP from the moment he joined the team, at least from a rate basis.

The 1) declining performance of our existing rotation from April to May, 2) steep dropoff from GRod to our other minor league SPs, 3) overworked bullpen likely to show more cracks as the season progresses, are combining to leave us sitting on a losing streak powder keg. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 5/6/2022 at 10:11 AM, Just Regular said:

It is a known known being the worst AL East team gives you the MLB-wide toughest schedule on paper this year.

But the Out of Division to date MIL-OAK-LAA-MIN basket has skewed tough.

Today's winning percentage of YTD Series Opponents: .615, .692, .720, .400, .630, .720, .385, .577.    Helped in part by their Orioles games, but not excessively so.

We messed up Oakland, curious to see if we can play better against KC-STL-DET (.348, .600, .333).

Then another round of NYY-TB-NYY, but in the second half of the month at least one if not both of the Franchise Players should be in the mix.    Agree if the Royals and Tigers of all people put us into one of those skids 100+ losses easily comes back into play.

In 2022 the Royals and Tigers are supposed to be better than the Orioles like maybe on paper Jordan Westburg is supposed to be better (or at least closer) than Gunnar Henderson.    It might be I feel like a pre-series favorite tonight for the first time in about half a decade.    Stay away, bad weather.

Psychobabble-wise, STL-DET feels like a better spot for Adley and Grayson before the Eastern titans.   I have a little hope wildcard is right about Nashville-St. Louis.   Chances to catch against Yadi Molina don't come around everyday.    Marketing wise the roadtrip is just more time to get tickets sold.

Being in the NL West wouldn't be a walk in the park either.  How about 19 games a year vs. the Dodgers, Giants and Padres.   When a team is bad, they always have a tough schedule because all the teams they play are better than them.

[Frobby]

The O’s just went 3-3 during a stretch where last year’s team went 5-1, so their record (25-35) is now 3 games better than where they stood last year after 60 games (22-38).

However, now is when the 2021 O’s started their second of three terrible losing spells, going 1-14 over the next 15 games.   So, this is a significant chance to put some distance between this year’s team and last year’s.    

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The O’s just went 3-3 during a stretch where last year’s team went 5-1, so their record (25-35) is now 3 games better than where they stood last year after 60 games (22-38).

However, now is when the 2021 O’s started their second of three terrible losing spells, going 1-14 over the next 15 games.   So, this is a significant chance to put some distance between this year’s team and last year’s.    

Our current 25-35 record is also the exact record we had in the 2020 Covid-shortened season.

[Ohfan67]

Unfortunately the Orioles will be in Toronto this week….I always expect the Orioles to get slaughtered on that road trip. 

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Our current 25-35 record is also the exact record we had in the 2020 Covid-shortened season.

Yup, just wrote up a long thread about that.   Took me a while to write.