Keith Law on Arrieta's ML Projection

[Abadie]

Keith Law only see's Arrieta as being a possible #3, #4 starter in the Major leauges. He thinks he currently stands as a #4 due to the fact that he has no true knock out pitch and lacks command.

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Thoughts?

[tywright]

Keith Law only see's Arrieta as being a possible #3, #4 starter in the Major leauges. He thinks he currently stands as a #4 due to the fact that he has no true knock out pitch and lacks command.

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Thoughts?

Arrieta's slider projects as a good strikeout pitch. And his FB can blow guys away. So I don't know what KLaw is talking about.

[Abadie]

Arrieta's slider projects as a good strikeout pitch. And his FB can blow guys away. So I don't know what KLaw is talking about.

Thats what I've been hearing since we drafted the kid and he was known as having the best "stuff" on the Olympic team. No wonder Keith Law is no longer with the Blue Jays. Thanks...

[Osfan13]

While Law's points are valid, Arrieta needs to pitch in AA before a #3 or #4 label is applied to him. Same with Erbe.

This projection is just that, a projection.

[Mackus]

Thats what I've been hearing since we drafted the kid and he was known as having the best "stuff" on the Olympic team. No wonder Keith Law is no longer with the Blue Jays. Thanks...

He was no known as having the best "stuff" on the Olympic Team. Strasburg takes that crown.

I think #3 is a good estimate for Arrieta. Law was asked what is his ceiling, but that wasn't really what he answered, you can tell because he said "proabbly a 4 now" meaning if he improves some things, he could be better.

I think his absolute ceiling is much closer to the front of the rotation, but if he develops into a solid #3, that'd be fine.

[allstar1579]

He was no known as having the best "stuff" on the Olympic Team. Strasburg takes that crown.

I think #3 is a good estimate for Arrieta. Law was asked what is his ceiling, but that wasn't really what he answered, you can tell because he said "proabbly a 4 now" meaning if he improves some things, he could be better.

I think his absolute ceiling is much closer to the front of the rotation, but if he develops into a solid #3, that'd be fine.

I know what he meant, someone said about a month ago that they thought Jake had the best stuff on the Olympic squad. I can't remember who it was, but it was just an opinion, just one that some people around here took to be fact. It's not. He's very talented and has good stuff, but raw talent Strasburg has him beat.

Jake has some intangibles that I think are going to make him better than a #3, he's got that killer instinct, the drive to finish every game he starts, and is a smart pitcher. I see him as more of a 2 than a 3, but again, he hasn't thrown a pitch above A ball because of the olympics, so it's all projection.

[Stotle]

Keith Law only see's Arrieta as being a possible #3, #4 starter in the Major leauges. He thinks he currently stands as a #4 due to the fact that he has no true knock out pitch and lacks command.

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Thoughts?

Depends on how confident you are in his command improving. I'm a believer that he can be a #3. I haven't joined the #1/2 camp surrounding him on this board.

[OrioleBird79]

Depends on how confident you are in his command improving. I'm a believer that he can be a #3. I haven't joined the #1/2 camp surrounding him on this board.

What about Matusz and Tillman?

[Stotle]

What about Matusz and Tillman?

Both have front end stuff for me. I like Matusz's ceiling a little more (but I think I am in the minority there). Neither projects as a number 1, for me, but both can be above-average #2s if all goes well.

[OrioleBird79]

Both have front end stuff for me. I like Matusz's ceiling a little more (but I think I am in the minority there). Neither projects as a number 1, for me, but both can be above-average #2s if all goes well.

Thanks. I think people are looking at our pitching situation in the wrong light. Let's say that Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta are all in the 2010 starting rotation. We still have Guthrie, so all we need is an ace. I think the Orioles should go after Sheets, Marquis, and Uehera this offseason. Marquis is a one year rental and Uehera could go into the bullpen if needed.

Sheets

Guthrie

Matusz

Tillman

Arrieta

That looks very solid to me. The worse thing we can do is sign mediocre pitchers to three year deals.

[Lucky Jim]

The idea of needing an "ace" is somewhat overrated (to me, at least.)

I mean, having two very good #2s is fine, to me. Heck, even Stotle will tell you that #1 refers to package and not results. No?

[Stotle]

The idea of needing an "ace" is somewhat overrated (to me, at least.)

I mean, having two very good #2s is fine, to me. Heck, even Stotle will tell you that #1 refers to package and not results. No?

I agree with this. My numbering of a pitcher as projection has to do with the capabilities of the pitcher (package) rather than where they fit in a rotation. As Orioles fans, we all know the pitchers slotted at 1/2/3/4/5 are not created equally across the MLB board.

[TJ Wrangler]

Both have front end stuff for me. I like Matusz's ceiling a little more (but I think I am in the minority there). Neither projects as a number 1, for me, but both can be above-average #2s if all goes well.

Hey, you keep stealing my ideas.

[nobdyweird]

Arrieta's slider projects as a good strikeout pitch. And his FB can blow guys away. So I don't know what KLaw is talking about.

Well, those two pitches profile a guy best as a late-inning reliever. Arrieta needs to improve his change if he wants to really be projected as a front-end guy, but that's what part of this coming year is going to be about. Law was spot on in saying that Arrieta has some control issues, and that's the most important part of being able to throw the change. If he throws strike one with good fastball command, the change can be something he can use against righties and lefties. Right now, it's only a good weapon against lefties because he falls behind in the count a lot.

The slider is what it is, but he needs that change to get recognition as a front-line starter.

[Frobby]

It depends entirely what you mean when you say a "no. 3." If you mean, "someone who would be a no. 3 in a good contending rotation" then I'd agree. If you mean "someone who would be a no. 3 in an average major league rotation" then I think that's too low.

Put it this way - what is Jeremy Guthrie? If he's considered a no. 3, then I have no trouble projecting Arrieta as a no. 3.