Kumar reappears

[OriolesMagic83]

Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Are you saying striking out the Lew Ford's of the baseball world isn't the best indicator of MLB success? 

Rocker was showing good velocity and that's probably the most important thing for now besides not being sore after he pitches. 

Waiting for Lew Ford to homer off him.  Glad that Ford is still staying active for the O's next championship run.

[btdart20]

59 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Well at least he showed he still has his velocity.  It's hard to get much info on how good he is from independent league action.  I assume the competition level is somewhat below rookie ball, but with older players. 

Independent ball depends.  Most are MiLB washouts and a few hanger-ons.  Every year there's a few former MLBers on the York Revolution (5 this year).  Plus, many AAA washouts and a handful of others.  Probably somewhere between AA-AAA.

York Revolution: Roster

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Well at least he showed he still has his velocity.  It's hard to get much info on how good he is from independent league action.  I assume the competition level is somewhat below rookie ball, but with older players. 

Well, D1 college is somewhere between rookie ball and low-A.

 

Some reports I read said that the Frontier league is roughly low-A.  So that would make it a half step higher than college ball.

[RZNJ]

Too risky for the 1st pick and he'll never be there at #33.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Too risky for the 1st pick and he'll never be there at #33.

And if he does end up there at #33 you shouldn't pick him.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And if he does end up there at #33 you shouldn't pick him.

Is that a statement or a question?    I would take him at #33.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Is that a statement or a question?    I would take him at #33.   

Statement.

If for some reason he drops to #33 it's because he's way too risky.

The only way he drops that far is if he's got some serious issue, almost certainly physical.

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Statement.

If for some reason he drops to #33 it's because he's way too risky.

The only way he drops that far is if he's got some serious issue, almost certainly physical.

We already know it's a fairly serious issue or the Mets would have signed him last year.   It's certainly not minor.   Maybe he has a minor tear.   Tanaka and Sidney Ponson (I know, bad example) had minor tears of the UCL and continued to pitch.   It's most likely an issue which the Mets felt was serious.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

We already know it's a fairly serious issue or the Mets would have signed him last year.   It's certainly not minor.   Maybe he has a minor tear.   Tanaka and Sidney Ponson (I know, bad example) had minor tears of the UCL and continued to pitch.   It's most likely an issue which the Mets felt was serious.

Aiken went 17th with his issue.

I think that if Kumar drops to 33 he's got something a lot worse than a minor tear.

 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Aiken went 17th with his issue.

I think that if Kumar drops to 33 he's got something a lot worse than a minor tear.

 

Then we probably both believe it's not something that serious because we probably both believe he won't be there at #33 and we probably believe if it was really, really serious, he wouldn't be throwing plus sliders and sitting 95-97 and touching 99, with command.

[joelala]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Then we probably both believe it's not something that serious because we probably both believe he won't be there at #33 and we probably believe if it was really, really serious, he wouldn't be throwing plus sliders and sitting 95-97 and touching 99, with command.

Is that what reports are indicating? 

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, joelala said:

Is that what reports are indicating? 

Go back to page 1 of this thread and read the report from his first outing with the independent league club.   In short, the answer is YES.

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Go back to page 1 of this thread and read the report from his first outing with the independent league club.   In short, the answer is YES.

We’ll see. It was 4 innings, but certainly a good beginning. 

[btdart20]

8 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

We’ll see. It was 4 innings, but certainly a good beginning. 

Agreed.  

To recap his past:  

Kumar has a baseline MRI from 2018.  When healthy he throws 96-99 range.  In 2021, his velo dipped to low 90’s.  It did pick up again later in the season.  Kumar opted out of the 2021 pre-draft MRI, raising more red flags.  So his 1.1 potential took a hit and he slid to 1.10.  The post-draft physical revealed some type of damage.  Enough that the Mets didn’t even extend Kumar a contract.  Agent Boras said When compared with his 2018 MRIs, the medical experts found no significant change.

He’s a ticking time bomb.  But is he any more than other pitchers who throw 99+?

I’m fine with the gamble (assuming he maintains this type of performance) after the first round and bank on surgery in the first two years.  Part of the cost of business for high velo/ceiling pitchers.  Doubt he’ll be on the board though.

https://fansided.com/2022/05/13/kumar-rocker-mlb-draft-independent-league/amp/

[Aglets]

Given Elias's track record of not using prime picks on pitchers with risk profiles...........I chalk this one up to "no way do we get him."   Speculation is fun though.