Kumar reappears

[joelala]

12 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Go back to page 1 of this thread and read the report from his first outing with the independent league club.   In short, the answer is YES.

Then he certainly won’t last to 33. 
 

35 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed.  

To recap his past:  

Kumar has a baseline MRI from 2018.  When healthy he throws 96-99 range.  In 2021, his velo dipped to low 90’s.  It did pick up again later in the season.  Kumar opted out of the 2021 pre-draft MRI, raising more red flags.  So his 1.1 potential took a hit and he slid to 1.10.  The post-draft physical revealed some type of damage.  Enough that the Mets didn’t even extend Kumar a contract.  Agent Boras said When compared with his 2018 MRIs, the medical experts found no significant change.

He’s a ticking time bomb.  But is he any more than other pitchers who throw 99+?

I’m fine with the gamble (assuming he maintains this type of performance) after the first round and bank on surgery in the first two years.  Part of the cost of business for high velo/ceiling pitchers.  Doubt he’ll be on the board though.

https://fansided.com/2022/05/13/kumar-rocker-mlb-draft-independent-league/amp/

All pitchers are ticking time bombs. Unless the mri shows that he’s more at risk than most for a career ending/altering injury (like shoulder calcification,) I’d be more than Ok taking a flyer at 33 if he were to get there. Though with Boras as his agent, whoever takes him with have to pay handsomely. Which could also lead to him still being there at 33. 

[joelala]

Just now, joelala said:

Then he certainly won’t last to 33. 
 

All pitchers are ticking time bombs. Unless the mri shows that he’s more at risk than most for a career ending/altering injury (like shoulder calcification,) I’d be more than Ok taking a flyer at 33 if he were to get there. Though with Boras as his agent, whoever takes him with have to pay handsomely. Which could also lead to him still being there at 33. 

So in short, maybe he will last to 33. I’m a walking contradiction. Ignore me. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

Given Elias's track record of not using prime picks on pitchers with risk profiles...........I chalk this one up to "no way do we get him."   Speculation is fun though.

Yeah, Baumler's risk was a known risk and he was a 5th rounder.  Kumar's risk is more unknown.  Quant guys don't like unknown risks.  So, you're probably right.  

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Yeah, Baumler's risk was a known risk and he was a 5th rounder.  Kumar's risk is more unknown.  Quant guys don't like unknown risks.  So, you're probably right.  

Good posts.  Just curious what you mean by Baumler's risk was a known risk?   You mean as with any HS pitcher?

[btdart20]

48 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Good posts.  Just curious what you mean by Baumler's risk was a known risk?   You mean as with any HS pitcher?

Yes (plus I forgot that the TJ was after the draft) vs. who knows what the Mets saw.

[LookinUp]

This guy has Lucas Giolito vibes to me. High risk high reward draft pick. I'd love to see the O's break their tendency and make a selection like this (understanding I have no clue if it would be smart at all).

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

This guy has Lucas Giolito vibes to me. High risk high reward draft pick. I'd love to see the O's break their tendency and make a selection like this (understanding I have no clue if it would be smart at all).

Not at 1-1 I hope?

[LookinUp]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not at 1-1 I hope?

Yeah. No chance of that. I mean with the 2nd pick if he's there. 

Giolito went 16, for reference. As others have noted, it's hard to see Kumar falling to us without something serious presenting itself.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Yeah. No chance of that. I mean with the 2nd pick if he's there. 

Giolito went 16, for reference. As others have noted, it's hard to see Kumar falling to us without something serious presenting itself.

If they ever pick as high as 17 again I'd be down with that type of move.

[Paul in Virginia]

Examining Kumar Rocker's 2nd Try-City Start — Prospects Live

 

 

[Malike]

Tri-City plays about 15 mins from me. The stuff is legit and didn't seem bothered by anything after throwing any of his pitches. Clearly, wouldn't take him 1:1 but you can just see it, he's a big league pitcher.

[Frobby]

Keith Law said he can’t imagine the O’s taking Rocker even at 34.   He just doesn’t think the O’s like pitchers with more obvious than usual health risks.  

[waroriole]

If Rocker doesn’t sign after this draft is he subject to the draft next year? Is there a point he gets free agency?

[LookinUp]

Just thinking on this kid some more.

He'd make a lot of sense for an org that wants to infuse a great arm in the next couple of years. High risk, so I agree with Law that the O's aren't likely to be that team, but damn if he wouldn't slot in nicely in our system.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Just thinking on this kid some more.

He'd make a lot of sense for an org that wants to infuse a great arm in the next couple of years. High risk, so I agree with Law that the O's aren't likely to be that team, but damn if he wouldn't slot in nicely in our system.

But he doesn't slot in at 1-1 and won't be there at 33.

That and I can't imagine Elias picking him.