Mike Elias On the Verge

[Orioles0615]

17 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

When would most people agree that it's time to started truly judging Elias and the team on the field? Every year it seems to get moved again.

 

So I guess it's just a simple question for me, when do results matter? A time rather than just saying when x, y or z get called up.

If they arent trying to win next year or competing (.500 ish) he should be fired full stop.

[eddie83]

12 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

When would most people agree that it's time to started truly judging Elias and the team on the field? Every year it seems to get moved again.

 

So I guess it's just a simple question for me, when do results matter? A time rather than just saying when x, y or z get called up.

I think the issue is philosophical and money related.  
 

They aren’t pushing to be more competitive right now. Obviously they aren’t spending money either. Both are related of course. 
 

I was hoping by now he could find some undervalued assets that would have been able to help bridge the gap.  Mateo was a smart pickup. Some of the bullpen arms have upside he has acquired recently. This includes Lopez from a couple of years back. 
 

We all knew going into the season this team had 4 holes in the lineup. Catcher was acceptable to me because Adley was on the way. Mateo has been fine. I think he has not adequately filled the other infield spots. Last year they scrambled at the end of spring and played Ruiz at second. Last year Urias played solid. That said these guys are available for a reason. 
 

For me we can debate all day about when is the time to spend more. I don’t think Elias the last two years has filled the infield holes well. That said it’s not costing the Orioles a playoff spot. Spending money would of course increase the odds of that. Hopefully soon the Orioles will be more competitive and filling out the edges of the roster will be more meaningful. At the end of the day you can’t be competitive in the AL East of all places with multiple dead spots in your starting lineup. 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Big spending?  They never got any higher than 10th/11th in 2016-17.   $161.3 mm was the high in 2017 by BB-ref’s accounting.  

I will assume that if the O’s become contenders their attendance will rebound to 2 mm+.  If so, I think they can get back into the $140-150 mm payroll range.   A well run team can compete with that payroll.   
 

 

Cots had them higher…but that’s a lot of money to spend.  

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cots had them higher…but that’s a lot of money to spend.  

The thing about spending to me is this. Will we sign home grown players long term and will we spend to fill holes when we are in a competitive cycle? 
 

They aren’t interested in spending during non competitive phases. We can debate that day after day.  There is no debate once we are “trying.”  If we trade players early because it’s a good baseball decision, that’s fine. If we trade players because of money that’s not acceptable. 

 

[glenn__davis]

34 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

If they arent trying to win next year or competing (.500 ish) he should be fired full stop.

 

52 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

When would most people agree that it's time to started truly judging Elias and the team on the field? Every year it seems to get moved again.

 

So I guess it's just a simple question for me, when do results matter? A time rather than just saying when x, y or z get called up.

To my knowledge I don't believe any timeline has ever been provided by Elias or ownership.   In fact they've been very specific not to do so.  So we can say he should be fired if they're not trying to compete next year, but what if that's what ownership wants?

I really don't know the answer, but I do feel like winning is secondary to finances.  I don't think the Angelos brothers want to lose, but as long as they're happy with the financials, they have no urgency to win.  So they're fine with just keeping this rebuild going under the guise of "it takes time."

[eddie83]

Last year the infield not including 1B using rWAR.

Galvis  0.9

Urias  1.9

Vailaka -1.9

Franco -1.6

Players with 155 PA’s and fewer 

Guitierrez 0.8

Jones -0.6

Leyba -0.7

Martin -1.0 

Mateo 0.2

Ruiz -0.4

Wilkerson -0.5 

 

Sometimes I wonder about WAR using such small sample sizes but the talent speaks for itself. Collectively that infield is horrible. 

[Pat Kelly]

Bottom line with Hays, Mateo and Mountcastle out there are only 3 viable major leaguers in the line-up and even those three are underperforming.

 

[sportsfan8703]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Good plan, don't call up guys in their early 20's that way you can claim you don't have any established players in their early 20's to extend.

Haven't heard much about a Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle or Means extension.  Instead of aggressively promoting guys and extending them they appear to be trying to maximize team control.

If signing Adley to a long term deal was considered an option would he still be in the minors?

Spot on post. 

[Orioles0615]

33 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

 

To my knowledge I don't believe any timeline has ever been provided by Elias or ownership.   In fact they've been very specific not to do so.  So we can say he should be fired if they're not trying to compete next year, but what if that's what ownership wants?

I really don't know the answer, but I do feel like winning is secondary to finances.  I don't think the Angelos brothers want to lose, but as long as they're happy with the financials, they have no urgency to win.  So they're fine with just keeping this rebuild going under the guise of "it takes time."

True, no one knows what ownership really wants. Losing and not spending money keeps payroll down. But if they really do want to win again, next year Elias should be held accountable when they don't. 

[Aglets]

54 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

 

To my knowledge I don't believe any timeline has ever been provided by Elias or ownership.   In fact they've been very specific not to do so.  So we can say he should be fired if they're not trying to compete next year, but what if that's what ownership wants?

I really don't know the answer, but I do feel like winning is secondary to finances.  I don't think the Angelos brothers want to lose, but as long as they're happy with the financials, they have no urgency to win.  So they're fine with just keeping this rebuild going under the guise of "it takes time."

This is not entirely true anymore.   Ownership finally talked a bit about timeline when John Angelos had that little press release around Opening Day.  He said when they brought Elias onboard they expected the rebuild to take 4-5 years.   

This is the first time I can remember Elias or ownership talking that way............and I felt it was significant.  I made a thread about it at the time too.   I think it is consistent with the way the MLB team and minors are constructed at the moment.  Elias has been dropping subtle hints too that it will be time to ramp things up soon.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aglets said:

This is not entirely true anymore.   Ownership finally talked a bit about timeline when John Angelos had that little press release around Opening Day.  He said when they brought Elias onboard they expected the rebuild to take 4-5 years.   

This is the first time I can remember Elias or ownership talking that way............and I felt it was significant.  I made a thread about it at the time too.   I think it is consistent with the way the MLB team and minors are constructed at the moment.  Elias has been dropping subtle hints too that it will be time to ramp things up soon.

Well we are in year 4 and not close.

Are they throwing out 2020?  So is it really 5-6 years?

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well we are in year 4 and not close.

Are they throwing out 2020?  So is it really 5-6 years?

Not that the playoffs will be the expectation but next year there needs to be improvement. Now some of that may be seen this year with future call ups. 
 

You simply can’t field a MLB team with this many holes in your infield 3 years in a row. It’s not acceptable. 
 

The massive rebuild part is now over. It’s time to get better on the field. 

[Aglets]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well we are in year 4 and not close.

Are they throwing out 2020?  So is it really 5-6 years?

Close to what.   The Yankees?    The Red Sox?   A wildcard team?

We are close to 1 of those 3.

I think the timeline is still on.  I think they will ramp up spending some before 2023.  Idk if we will be trying for a wildcard then (I see it as 50/50 right now) but I definitely think Elias is planning to compete by '24.   He will never say it in public.  But that is the way I see the evidence pointing.   

[Sports Guy]

The time to get better and start trying to get better was this past offseason.  They failed miserably at that.

Now the only way to get better is your young players.  That has always been what was needed but some talent to supplement those guys would have been nice.  They chose not to because winning isn’t a priority for them in 2022.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

Close to what.   The Yankees?    The Red Sox?   A wildcard team?

We are close to 1 of those 3.

I think the timeline is still on.  I think they will ramp up spending some before 2023.  Idk if we will be trying for a wildcard then (I see it as 50/50 right now) but I definitely think Elias is planning to compete by '24.   He will never say it in public.  But that is the way I see the evidence pointing.   

Close to being relevant.  Close to being a contender.