I Think The O’s Have A Shot At 500

[ORIOLE33]

Almost in June and we’re currently 8 games under. A blind mouse can see that this team is slowly coming together. We’re young, have a good farm system, picking number one again and we’re already showing flashes of what’s to come. 
 

Despite our record, it’s a good time to be an Oriole fan. 

[jamalshw]

I'm thinking this is more of a 70ish-win team this year. That's not a good team, but it's a much improved one that will get some help from young guys getting promoted, but I expect them all to take some lumps. Still, after the last few years, a 72-90 type season would be a welcomed step in the right direction. 

 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, ORIOLE33 said:

Almost in June and we’re currently 8 games under. A blind mouse can see that this team is slowly coming together. We’re young, have a good farm system, picking number one again and we’re already showing flashes of what’s to come. 
 

Despite our record, it’s a good time to be an Oriole fan. 

Good post.  Keep posting.  The OH needs some positivity.   Lot of gun shy fans here.

[eddie83]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Good post.  Keep posting.  The OH needs some positivity.   Lot of gun shy fans here.

How is this team playing at a minimum 8 games over .500 the rest of the way with this rotation? 

[sportsfan8703]

I want to be optimistic, but even if we play .500 ball until the trade deadline, I still see Elias subtracting from the team. He’s definitely not going to add. I still think we’re looking at trading away all or most of Santander, Mancini, Lyles, Lopez, Tate, and Odor. Given they are healthy and performing. That doesn’t mean we can’t be optimistic because we’ll then have Stowers, Diaz, Neustrom, Hall, and GR up. Gunnar and Westburg will also be that much closer. 

[NCRaven]

40 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I want to be optimistic, but even if we play .500 ball until the trade deadline, I still see Elias subtracting from the team. He’s definitely not going to add. I still think we’re looking at trading away all or most of Santander, Mancini, Lyles, Lopez, Tate, and Odor. Given they are healthy and performing. That doesn’t mean we can’t be optimistic because we’ll then have Stowers, Diaz, Neustrom, Hall, and GR up. Gunnar and Westburg will also be that much closer. 

I don't think that there is any way that Elias makes six trades at or before the deadline.  Now, Mancini is likely, Lyles and a reliever are possible.  With all the team control remaining, I doubt that Santander is traded and I'm not sure that Odor has much value.  We'll see; late July should at least be interesting.

[Spy Fox]

They would need to go 60-52, for a .536 winning percentage. That's about one win different from last year's WS winning Braves' performance in the regular season.

I'm pleased with the progress so far but they're just not ready for four months straight of contender-level results. It would take something beyond 2012 level close-game karma. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

How is this team playing at a minimum 8 games over .500 the rest of the way with this rotation? 

Its a matter of development:

Lyles 29 starts    4.26 ERA

T Wells  21             3.71 ERA

Grayson 16             4.00 ERA

Zimmermann 25      4.53 ERA

Kremer  23                4.50 ERA

Hall 10                        4.50 ERA

Plus those already pitched

Watkins 8

Bradish 7

Means 2

Ellis 2

Baker 1

Reyes 1

That is 145 starts

They need 17 more from Bradish, A Wells, Ellis, Watkins, Smith, Reyes, Harvey and whoever else Elias acquires .....

 

[Too Tall]

Wow, I want to believe but everytime we get all hot and bothered something not so good happens. Seems like there's an OH jinx that always occures when we start feeling or predicting good.

I voted at the beginning for a 400ish year. I'm still there but willing to be wrong on the low side. Getting all excited at the start of June is as we use to say in the duck blind, like pis...g into the wind! Enjoy what you feel but don't put money on it just yet!

[Sports Guy]

4.5 ERA for Kremer?

[SteveA]

The key is playing better on the road.   We came into the just-completed NYY/Bost road trip with a 5-14 road record.   So going 4-4 was a big deal.   But we will have to continue that, being at least respectable away from home.   The last 8 days was a good start but still a lot of work to do in that area.  Next roadie is 4@KC, 4@Tor.   Pull off a 5-3 homestand and then follow that with another 4-4 road trip and maybe I'll start dreaming of .500.

Remember, this team STILL hasn't pulled off a stretch of .500 ball that lasted more than 32 games since 2017.   Asking them to do it for 162 games is a big ask.

Longest stretches of .500 ball each of the past 5 seasons:

2018 9-9 (from 8-27 record on May 7 to 17-36 on May 27)
2019 16-16 (from 22-58 on June 27 to 38-73 on Aug 4)
2020 14-14 (from 0-1 on July 25 to 14-15 on Aug 25)
2021  11-11 (from 28-62 July 16 to 38-72 August 8 )

2022:  Right now we have played .500 ball for 30 days (from being 6-14 on April 29 to being 21-29 today.   If we can split our next two we will match our longest .500 stretch since 2017; if we can split our next 4 we will set a new high since 2017 (where we played .500 from Opening Day until September 9, when we were 71-71).

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

4.5 ERA for Kremer?

These pitchers are not pitching well all on their own.   They have better catchers this season and a better defense.   Let's turn 2.   Should help Kremer.  And maybe  Holt can stick around an support him rather than leaving for a month.

[Morgan423]

I'm just looking for the team to maintain this pace and go the distance this year without collapsing.  They are on a 68 win pace, and if they can finish there or a little better, that is the 15 to 20ish game improvement we needed to see this year to know that they are on track, and that they are ready for the next step. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Turned on the game in the 3rd, down 7-0.  Maybe in June we'll finish .500 or over.

[Jagwar]

No chance at .500, not if we give innings to guys like Lowther