Move Mullins to Clean Up?

[ScGO's]

Hear me out

Cedric is batting .175/.235/.489 leading off the game this year. He's also batting .318/.357/.929 with RISP (OPS jumps to 1.107 w/ RISP and 2 outs)

For whatever reason, Cedric doesn't seem to thrive in the leadoff roll this year.  If the RISP numbers stay steady, Cedric could thrive in the middle of the line up.  A line up with Cedric in the 4 hole would create a lot of RH/LH variation. I'm also a big fan of having your best hitter leadoff to maximize ABs, and Hays is our best guy right now.  Thoughts?

1. Hays

2. Santander

3. Mancini

4. Mullins

5. Mountcastle

6. Rutchman

7. Urias

8. Odor

9. Mateo

 

 

[Frobby]

I would not overreact to these kinds of splits, especially over 74 games.  Mullins was putrid in RISP situations last year (.213/.404/.340), this year he’s doing well.  I’d ignore those sorts of splits and put the player where his skill set fits best.

I feel like Mullins has a loopier swing this year and is being less direct to the ball.   Would like to see that corrected.  

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would not overreact to these kinds of splits, especially over 74 games.  Mullins was putrid in RISP situations last year (.213/.404/.340), this year he’s doing well.  I’d ignore those sorts of splits and put the player where his skill set fits best.

I feel like Mullins has a loopier swing this year and is being less direct to the ball.   Would like to see that corrected.  

Barrel% is down and the launch angle is up.  Probably trying to hit homers. 

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Barrel% is down and the launch angle is up.  Probably trying to hit homers. 

He got this way second half of the season last year, almost seeming to chase 30/30.  I think he could still be tweaked to get it right, not that he's been bad, but he can be better.

[Sports Guy]

I thought he would have around an 800 OpS this year, not knowing that offense would be so down this year.  If I had known that, I probably would have pegged him in the 750-775 area.  If he is playing very good defense, which by some metrics he is, that would be a really good CFer.  
 

As it stands he is still very valuable, especially at his salary but the offense could definitely use a lot of improvement.

[Aristotelian]

I'd hate to do anything that might mess with Hays. Maybe drop Mullins to 2 and try Urias or even Rutschman leading off. 

[now]

Funny, from the thread title, at first I thought this was a trade thread.

(It still could be, but not sure we would "clean up" on the return).

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I would not overreact to these kinds of splits, especially over 74 games.  Mullins was putrid in RISP situations last year (.213/.404/.340), this year he’s doing well.  I’d ignore those sorts of splits and put the player where his skill set fits best.

I feel like Mullins has a loopier swing this year and is being less direct to the ball.   Would like to see that corrected.  

Interesting.  I just don't see him turning on the inside down and in fastball or any pitch middle in like he did last year.   He was right on anything waist high or lower and middle to middle in last year.   It could have something to do with his swing.  I don't really have an opinion on that one.   I hadn't noticed.

[vab]

2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Hear me out

Cedric is batting .175/.235/.489 leading off the game this year. He's also batting .318/.357/.929 with RISP (OPS jumps to 1.107 w/ RISP and 2 outs)

For whatever reason, Cedric doesn't seem to thrive in the leadoff roll this year.  If the RISP numbers stay steady, Cedric could thrive in the middle of the line up.  A line up with Cedric in the 4 hole would create a lot of RH/LH variation. I'm also a big fan of having your best hitter leadoff to maximize ABs, and Hays is our best guy right now.  Thoughts?

1. Hays

2. Santander

3. Mancini

4. Mullins

5. Mountcastle

6. Rutchman

7. Urias

8. Odor

9. Mateo

 

 

It's logical but based on a pretty SSS. It could just as easily turn around in the 2nd half - like Hays struggling vs RHP and crushing LHPs last year and just the opposite this year. 

[Just Regular]

With 2022 playoff odds at zero, it can be deferred until this or a future offseason, but Mullins consolidating reasonably well as an asset not an All-Star might not project as a Top of Lineup guy once the offenses get really good.   

It'd be delicate as he has an All-Star game, a 30/30 year and is an important piece (major, major mid-round developmental WIN) in his own respect.

But if things go well, by Opening Day 2024 I hope Adley, Gunnar, Kjerstad, Cowser and Mayo all become the Guys Elias Thought They Were and Bats you'd want to funnel more PA to.    Ibid Brooks Lee if 20 days away he's the Guy.

Hays somewhat in the same boat, except he's the guy in the pair having the All-Star caliber season this year.    Hays-Mullins-Westburg would be a pretty sweet 7-8-9.   I'm keeping Mountcastle in a prime RBI spot goofily here.

[forphase1]

While I'm not sure who I'd put in his place in the lineup, he's not exactly helping us from the leadoff spot this year.  We don't have enough data to know is this the 'real' Mullins and last year was the outlier, or if with more time his numbers will start improving, but it's surprising just how well the team is doing overall with his struggles with the bat.  I think he's having a very solid to good year in the outfield, but unless the bat picks up the rest of the season, I have a hard time seeing him as being a nugget we worry about much going forward.  Like Larry Sheets, whose son we just played against in Chicago, and Brady Anderson, we've seen Orioles who have a magical season, then never come close to replicating it again.  Last year may have been Mullins 'Anderson '96' or 'Sheets '87'.  The one area of depth we APPEAR to have organizationally is outfield, so if this ends up being the 'real' Mullins, we at least have some possible replacements waiting in the wings.  Last year I was thinking we could trade some of our outfield depth for pitching, since Mullins appeared to have CF tied up for the next handful of years.  Now I'm no longer sure.

Don't get me wrong, I loved watching him last year and want him to return to that kind of a performance, or at the very least some middle ground between what he is showing now and what he showed last year.  I think it's a great success story and I loved his willingness to set aside switch hitting and the magical season the move created.  But a .685 OPS and .307 OBP isn't getting the job done at ANY spot in the top of the lineup, leadoff or cleanup.  

[Orioles4Life21]

25 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

With 2022 playoff odds at zero, it can be deferred until this or a future offseason, but Mullins consolidating reasonably well as an asset not an All-Star might not project as a Top of Lineup guy once the offenses get really good.   

It'd be delicate as he has an All-Star game, a 30/30 year and is an important piece (major, major mid-round developmental WIN) in his own respect.

But if things go well, by Opening Day 2024 I hope Adley, Gunnar, Kjerstad, Cowser and Mayo all become the Guys Elias Thought They Were and Bats you'd want to funnel more PA to.    Ibid Brooks Lee if 20 days away he's the Guy.

Hays somewhat in the same boat, except he's the guy in the pair having the All-Star caliber season this year.    Hays-Mullins-Westburg would be a pretty sweet 7-8-9.   I'm keeping Mountcastle in a prime RBI spot goofily here.

Have some faith my man. At 7 games out of the wild card I’d give us at least a .5% chance

[spiritof66]

I don't think moving the lineup around makes much difference. The team has six pretty good hitters in LF, CF, RF, IB, DH and C. (Sometimes, like when one of the six is injured or being rested, or when Chirinos is catching, there are only five good hitters in the lineup.) Hyde puts those guys at the top of the order and the others at the bottom, and I think that makes sense. Talking about juggling the order within each of the two groups may be fun, but I don't think those changes would be consequential. 

There will be more options if the team comes up with an infielder or two who can hit. Maybe Urias or Arauz or even Nevin is that guy. Or maybe Henderson or Westburg some day. 

The Orioles don't have what I would think of as a logical lead-off guy: a high-OBP guy who sees a lot of pitches and can run some (and is smart about it), so that he's more likely to score on a hit and won't clog up the basepaths. I think Mullins is probably the best alternative, but Hays or Santander would be fine with their higher OBPs. Mancini has the team's highest OBP, but he's too slow, and seems to be getting slower. I would move him down and, if Hays isn't leading off, bat him second. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

While I'm not sure who I'd put in his place in the lineup, he's not exactly helping us from the leadoff spot this year.  We don't have enough data to know is this the 'real' Mullins and last year was the outlier, or if with more time his numbers will start improving, but it's surprising just how well the team is doing overall with his struggles with the bat.  I think he's having a very solid to good year in the outfield, but unless the bat picks up the rest of the season, I have a hard time seeing him as being a nugget we worry about much going forward.  Like Larry Sheets, whose son we just played against in Chicago, and Brady Anderson, we've seen Orioles who have a magical season, then never come close to replicating it again.  Last year may have been Mullins 'Anderson '96' or 'Sheets '87'.  The one area of depth we APPEAR to have organizationally is outfield, so if this ends up being the 'real' Mullins, we at least have some possible replacements waiting in the wings.  Last year I was thinking we could trade some of our outfield depth for pitching, since Mullins appeared to have CF tied up for the next handful of years.  Now I'm no longer sure.

Don't get me wrong, I loved watching him last year and want him to return to that kind of a performance, or at the very least some middle ground between what he is showing now and what he showed last year.  I think it's a great success story and I loved his willingness to set aside switch hitting and the magical season the move created.  But a .685 OPS and .307 OBP isn't getting the job done at ANY spot in the top of the lineup, leadoff or cleanup.  

Another reason to draft Druw Jones.  The O's have lots of OF prospects, but do they really have a replacement for Mullins in CF?  I always had the perception that Cowser and Kjerstad are much more COF than CF.

[OriolesMagic83]

It would almost make sense to bat Mateo 8th and Mullins 9th.  It seems like Mullins has sold out his OBP ability to try and hit more HR.  I assume demoting a player from leadoff to 9th is an insult and not likely to happen.  It would give the O's a lot of speed in front of their best hitters, w/o giving those speedy, low OBP hitters the most at bats.